The only certainty is uncertainty. Words to live by, especially in betting and — most recently — in the 2024 NBA Draft. It seems there’s very little consensus on this draft class except that it’s not all that inspiring. Unless you’re on Bronny James watch or a die-hard NBA fan, odds are you might be feeling a little lukewarm about the field of players on the docket this year.
Whether that’s a fair assessment or not, it’s that very lack of consensus that makes the draft more interesting when it comes to the odds. Last year, there was little to no question who would go first, with Victor Wembanyama at an almost comical -10000 to be the top pick. This year, the field is much closer and the top of the draft is far from a lock.
Some of the names at the top are also probably unfamiliar to more casual fans. The more recognizable are players we just saw in the NCAA Tournament: Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Reed Sheppard and Dalton Knecht, among others.
And then, of course, there’s the weird wrinkle that the most recognizable player of all — LeBron James’ son, Bronny James — isn’t expected to be a first-round pick. But that doesn’t stop the public from throwing money at the name. BetMGM says that 25.2 percent of their tickets for the No. 1 overall pick are for Bronny James. Not everyone is a sharp bettor, people.
As is always the case with a draft in any sport, the markets fluctuate as more news or gossip leaks out leading up to the big day(s).
Today, we’re taking a look at the latest NBA Draft odds and what to expect from the teams this Wednesday and Thursday.
For The Athletic’s deepest, nerdiest, most holistic dive into this year’s draft class, see Sam Vecenie’s massive supernova of a 2024 NBA Draft Guide.
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Odds for No. 1 overall pick (Atlanta)
Last week, Alexandre Sarr was the favorite to go first overall, but now he’s dropped to third favorite behind Zaccharie Risacher and Clingan. The latest reports suggest that the Atlanta Hawks have narrowed it down to choosing between Risacher and Clingan.
Risacher is a 6-foot-8, 19-year-old wing from France who plays in the French league. Should he go first, it would be the second year in a row that the No. 1 draft pick went to a player who came up in France’s hoops programs. Sarr, too, is a French player, though he’s played the past season in the Australian National Basketball League.
Clingan is likely a more recognizable name among casual fans since he was a major character in March Madness for the past two years as a two-time NCAA champion with UConn. At 7-foot-2, Clingan could fit into Atlanta’s roster as a potentially dominant presence in the interior.
Of course, Atlanta could also trade down for Clingan, though they couldn’t move too far down if they want him.
Sarr is looking more and more likely to be the top choice for Washington if he doesn’t go at No. 1. According to The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie, the 7-foot, 19-year-old could be a good fit for what Wizards GM Will Dawkins is looking for as a defensive difference-maker with serious athleticism.
Odds for team to draft Bronny James
James is currently projected to go to the Lakers as the No. 55 overall pick. He’s only worked out for the Los Angeles Lakers and the Phoenix Suns.
For years, LeBron James has said he wants to spend the final years of his NBA career playing with his son, but both James men have distanced themselves from that narrative over recent months. Rich Paul, Bronny James’ agent, has said that playing together is not the top priority and that the elder James’ decision this summer won’t be impacted by where his son goes.
Take that with whatever sized grain of salt you like.
The Suns hold the 22nd overall pick. Dallas, which holds the final pick of the second round, has been linked to Bronny James, too, specifically the relationship between Mavericks GM Nico Harrison, whom Paul has described as being like an uncle to Bronny.
More NBA Draft markets
Odds on the NBA draft are a moving target, with any article about them basically set to self-destruct moments after publishing. But if you’re looking for a quick rundown of the live odds for 2024 NBA Draft betting markets, we’ve got the top picks below.
Odds are from BetMGM and update live.
Odds to be a Top 10 pick
Odds for No. 2 pick (Washington)
Odds for No. 3 pick (Houston)
Odds for No. 4 pick (San Antonio)
Odds for No. 5 pick (Detroit)
Odds for No. 6 pick (Charlotte)
Odds for No. 7 pick (Portland)
Odds for No. 8 pick (San Antonio)
Odds for No. 9 pick (Memphis)
Odds for No. 10 pick (Utah)
More coverage of the 2024 NBA Draft
Vecenie: NBA mock draft 2024: Donovan Clingan to Hawks? Why No. 1 pick is still up for grabs
Is the 2024 NBA Draft really as bad as they say? Plus, evaluating older prospects, draft talent
NBA Mock Draft 2024: What are Atlanta Hawks up to? That mystery hovers over this week
Top 100 NBA Draft prospects in 2024: Tiers, final rankings, analysis and Big Board
(Photo by Gioele Mason / NBAE via Getty Images)