2024 NFL season prediction: 5 reasons Bengals make playoffs, 7 reasons they won’t

The calendar has clicked away into the month of June which means NFL training camps are a little over a month away. The marathon of sprints that is the NFL offseason is getting ready to prove whether teams made wise decisions in NFL free agency and the NFL draft.

For the Cleveland Browns, a return trip to the playoffs is a bare minimum for the 2024 NFL season to be a success. Under GM Andrew Berry and HC Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have made the playoffs two out of the last three years but had a losing season in between.

While every team has to first think about their division before focusing on their conference, the AFC North presents a unique challenge for its four teams. After joining history in 2023, each team is looking to take the next step in 2024.

In our series looking at each AFC team for reasons they could make the playoffs and reasons they won’t, it makes the most sense to start with the division. We will start with the one team that didn’t make the playoffs last year, the Cincinnati Bengals.

While this exercise is a version of a prediction, do not read into how many factors are listed in each section for teams. For teams that are expected to be good, like the Bengals, we will spend a little more time on why they won’t make the playoffs. For teams that are not expected to be good, for the sake of discussion, we will use the Pittsburgh Steelers as the example, more time will be spent on how they could surprise you.

5 reasons the Bengals will make the NFL playoffs

1. The return of QB Joe Burrow – Unlike the Browns who found wins with a number of QBs, Cincinnati fell apart without Burrow. If he can stay healthy, his ability to pick apart defenses makes them a likely playoff contender.
2. WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – While Higgins’ contract situation will be worth watching (see below), the combination of Chase and Higgins is elite in a passing league where receivers matter more and more.
3. Key veterans filled holes in free agency – The Bengals will never be huge spenders (again, see below) but the additions of DT Sheldon Rankins, S Vonn Bell, TE Mike Gesiki, RB Zack Moss, S Geno Stone and OT Trent Brown shored up areas of need on the team’s roster (mostly due to free agent losses).
4. Talent and depth on the DLine – Everyone knows the names Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson (although more on him below) but BJ Hill, Zach Carter, Myles Murphy, Cam Sample, Joseph Ossai and Kris Jenkins Jr. gives Cincinnati an elite amount of talented depth on the defensive line.
5. Replenished secondary – Bringing back Bell and stealing Stone away from Baltimore added to a group that included breakout star Cam Taylor-Britt and talented players like Mike Hilton, Jordan Battle, Dax Hill and DJ Turner. In a pass happy NFL, that group will be important.

7 reasons the Bengals will miss the NFL playoffs

1. The AFC North – This will be reason #1 for all four teams. The division is just that tough.
2. Burrow’s injury history – As everyone knows, and is noted above, Burrow being healthy is required for Cincinnati but he’s played 16 games just twice in his four seasons. He has also been banged up even when he’s on the field. Expecting Burrow on the field for all 17 games might be unrealistic until proven otherwise.
3. OLine values – Give the Bengals credit for putting effort into protecting Burrow but what they value seems to start and end with “Are they huge?” Starters Orlando Brown and Trent Brown are both 6’8”, The team’s first-round pick, Amarius Mims, is set to be the primary backup this year and is only 6’7”. While size is fun and exciting, against players like Myles Garrett and TJ Watt, who can bend the edge impressively, size can be a detriment. In six games against Cleveland, Burrow has been sacked 20 times.
4. Picking and choosing who to pay – In the span of a couple of years, Cincinnati is likely to lose stars like S Jessie Bates III, WR Tee Higgins, DE Trey Hendrickson, DT DJ Reader and WR Tyler Boyd. Higgins and Hendrickson have asked to be traded while Bates, Reader and Boyd have left in free agency. The Bengals have not been willing and/or able to pay to keep players around which could lead to bitterness within the locker room as Burrow has already gotten a huge deal and Chase is likely to secure his soon.
5. The Browns – Not just because we cover the team here at DBN, Cleveland has had Burrow’s number. In those six games that he’s been sacked 20 times, Burrow’s Bengals are just 1-5. Even in the one game his team won, Burrow completed just 55% of his passes. Playing the Browns twice, along with the other teams in the division as noted in #1, will make it far more difficult for Cincinnati.
6. Free agent departures – Cincinnati tends to treadmill talent including this year with a number of players moving on along with Boyd and Reader including RB Joe Mixon, CB Chidobe Awuzie and S Nick Scott. While the veterans brought in to replace them are fine enough, changing talent can take a while to gel and, again, lead to a little bitterness that the team isn’t paying their own enough.
7. Loss of Brian Callahan – For all the team’s success, HC Zac Taylor does not get a lot of credit. As an offensive mind, the loss of Callahan, who took the head job with the Tennessee Titans, puts more pressure on Taylor. New OC Dan Pitcher has been with the team for eight years but has never called plays. Prior to joining the Bengals, Pitcher worked in player personnel roles, not coaching.

What reasons do you think the Bengals will make or miss the playoffs? Share your thoughts in our comment section below (which is likely to have both Browns and Bengals fans joining in so keep it friendly).