I’m about to drop a massive secret on you, intrepid reader. You might want to steel yourself—this one will shake you to your very core.
The National Football League is all about the quarterback position.
I know, it’s a shock. Take a moment. Compose yourself.
There are multiple reasons the Chiefs have won three Super Bowls over the past five years. But the biggest is the fact that Kansas City also has the best signal-caller in the game in Patrick Mahomes. Of the final four teams left standing a year ago in the playoffs, two had quarterbacks with MVP awards on their resume and another had a former No. 1 overall pick.
Of course, while every NFL team wants a Patrick Mahomes, not every team has one. For every franchise that has an elite quarterback, there’s one with a mid-range option. One with a youngster it hopes has the potential to be a star. And another with major questions at the game’s most important position.
Every one of those quarterbacks is the subject of this column. From Arizona to Washington and from marginal starters to superstars, here’s a look at all 32 projected starting quarterbacks in 2024—and an educated guess as to what kind of statistical production they will put up in the season to come.
The past two seasons haven’t been especially kind to Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
In 2022, after signing a $230.5 million contract, Murray made it just 11 games into the season before suffering a season-ending ACL tear. That injury lingered well into last season, costing Murray more than half the 2023 campaign as well.
Now, however, Murray is reportedly fully healthy—and according to one of his teammates, he’s hell-bent on a rebound season.
“The more I’ve gotten to know him, I don’t think he ever leaves (the Cardinals training facility),” running back Michael Carter told Arizona Sports. “”I’m in the building right now—I don’t think he leaves here. I don’t. He’s always in here. He’s the freakin’ first person in. I’m sure he’s the last person out.”
A healthy Murray is a two-time Pro Bowler who has eclipsed 3,700 passing yards three times and once added over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. But Murray has also topped 25 touchdown passes just once and will need rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. to be the real deal right out of the gate.
Projected Stats: 66.8 completion percentage, 3,776 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 535 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
There are big changes in Atlanta at the quarterback position—not only did the team give Kirk Cousins $180 million over four seasons to be the team’s starter, but the Falcons also used their first pick in 2024 on Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
The latter was likely because the former carries with him a significant question mark—Cousins’ 2023 season was ended after eight games by an Achilles tear.
While appearing on The Dan Patrick Show, Cousins said he fully intends to be out there for his new team Week 1.
“I’m good to go,” Cousins said. “I’ve told people for a while that if the Super Bowl were today, I’m playing. And that goes back probably – I think when I first got here, I was working out and we got maybe a week or two into my rehab and I did some drills where I said, ‘Hey, if the Super Bowl were today, I’m playing.’ And they seemed to agree.”
Assuming that’s the case, the Falcons have the offensive weapons for Cousins to post numbers at least similar to his last few seasons in Minnesota.
Projected Stats: 66.1 completion percentage, 4,344 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 95 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
In 2023, Lamar Jackson was named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player. He shattered his career high in passing yards with 3,678, threw over three times as many touchdown passes as interceptions and posted a passer rating over 100 for the first time since his first MVP season of 2019.
Jackson showed up for OTAs noticeably slimmer than in recent years. He told reporters that it’s in an effort to become even more dangerous escaping the pocket.
“I can be more agile, be able to move more,” Jackson said. “I feel great right now.”
The addition of battering ram running back Derrick Henry should take some of the load off Jackson on the ground, so it’s unlikely that we’ll see Jackson surpass 1,000 yards on the ground for the third time in his career.
But with an emerging young star at wide receiver in Zay Flowers and a healthy Mark Andrews at tight end, Jackson should be set for yet another impressive season in 2024.
And the Ravens should once again be among the AFC’s top contenders.
Projected Stats: 66.3 completion percentage, 3,551 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 798 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
Since joining the NFL in 2018, Josh Allen has become one of its most dangerous quarterbacks. He’s a threat with his cannon of a right arm and his ability to chew up yardage on the ground.
However, there has been major turnover in the Buffalo passing game this offseason. Star wide receiver Stefon Diggs is gone, as is Gabe Davis. The Bills brought in Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman as replacements, but that’s not exactly a one-for-one swap.
However, Allen talked up Coleman while speaking to reporters.
“I think his play style (is) what we needed in our offense,” Allen said. “Talking with our offensive coordinator (Joe Brady), our quarterbacks coach (Ronald Curry), (general manager) Brandon Beane and, obviously, coach (Sean) McDermott, a guy that’s a big-bodied guy and can go win one a back-shoulder fade and not afraid to be a physical wide receiver.”
The Bills are still going to be a contender with a potent offense. But it wouldn’t be a huge shock if Allen’s numbers backslide slightly in 2024.
Projected Stats: 64.7 completion percentage, 4,371 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 521 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns
The first overall pick in 2023, Bryce Young had a season to forget for the Carolina Panthers as a rookie. Young failed to complete 60 percent of his passes, threw for fewer than 3,000 yards and managed just 11 touchdown passes.
However, new Panthers head coach Dave Canales told reporters that he’s been impressed with Young’s grasp of the Panthers’ new offense.
“He’s doing fantastic with it,” Canales said. “The way that we do it is part to whole, really. So, we teach our concepts. Just for an example, say we have a pass concept. We’re not going to use six different formations today, to run this concept. As it becomes something really good that we’re effective at, we’ll start to build it out. For us, the formations are pretty vanilla, so that we can just teach the concept, and what we want out of each route. The depth, the footwork for Bryce. … So that’s the approach right now. So, as I expect him to do, he’s really mastered that part of it.”
Young has an improved supporting cast this year with the addition of wide receivers Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson. A year of experience under his belt. And a coach in Canales who just coaxed a career year from Baker Mayfield in Tampa.
Year 2 will be better. The only question is how much.
Projected Stats: 61.2 completion percentage, 3,581 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 244 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
Caleb Williams was the first overall pick in this year’s draft. All that’s being asked of him is to jumpstart a languishing Chicago offense and become the first high-end starter under center the team has had in, well, ever.
No pressure.
Williams has a lot going for him. His arm talent and ability to improvise on the fly have evoked comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. A Chicago offense that was precariously thin at the skill positions in recent years is now loaded at wide receiver with veterans Keenan Allen and DJ Moore and rookie Rome Odunze.
However, Williams also had a tendency to try to do too much at times when plays broke down at USC, and his early practice sessions with the Bears have reportedly featured their share of bumps in the road.
There are going to be growing pains. Early games where Williams struggles. And the youngster needs to be leery of turnovers.
But the Bears have made an effort to put Williams in position to succeed—so there are going to be flashes of what the Bears hope is the franchise’s long-term future as well.
Projected Stats: 63.6 completion percentage, 4,002 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 354 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns
Not that long ago, Joe Burrow was playing in a Super Bowl. Now, as he enters his fifth professional season, Burrow is attempting to shake off the injured wrist that cut short his 2023 season and led to the Bengals missing the postseason.
Per Geoff Hobson of the team’s website, offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher said that Burrow is throwing without limitations in OTAs.
“We designed the whole thing to stay within the constraints of where the medical people think he should be and where he wants to be right now,” Pitcher says. “Nobody is sitting there with a special pitch counter. But we’ve been smart how we put it together.”
Burrow has already demonstrated that he can play quarterback with the best of them. Tyler Boyd is gone, but Cincinnati still has an excellent pair of receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals are expected to be right back in the mix in the AFC North in 2024.
Look for a big-time Burrow bounce-back in the season to come.
Projected Stats: 67.3 completion percentage, 4,665 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 145 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
The Cleveland Browns mortgaged their future to obtain Deshaun Watson—both financially and in terms of draft capital. So far, the return has been almost laughably bad—Watson has missed 22 games over the past two seasons and hasn’t played especially well when he has been healthy.
Given those struggles, it’s hard to take too much solace in Kevin Stefanski’s comments about Watson’s progress from shoulder surgery.
“He looked like himself to me,” Stefanski told reporters. “I’ve been able to watch him the last couple of weeks now that we’ve gotten into Phase Two, so I’ve seen him throw. He’s making great progress. We will continue to just follow the medical team on this, but he looks like himself.”
With the offseason addition of Jerry Jeudy, the Browns aren’t short on passing-game firepower. Cleveland’s offensive line is among the league’s best. This was an 11-win team last year despite a revolving door of mediocre quarterbacks.
This is a make-or-break season for the 28-year-old—fully guaranteed
contract or not.
Projected Stats: 63.8 completion percentage, 4,101
passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 420 rushing yards, 4 rushing
touchdowns
Speaking of make-or-break years.
After yet another successful regular season was followed by another quick postseason exit, Dak Prescott is entering the final year of his contract. However, he insisted to reporters that money is the furthest thing from his mind right now.
“I don’t play for money,” Prescott said. “Never have never cared for it to be honest with you. Yeah. Would give it up just to play this game. So, I allow that to the business people to say what it’s worth what they’re supposed to give a quarterback of my play. A person of my play, leader of my play. For me, it’s about as I said, control what I can control and handle that part and the rest will take care of itself.”
In CeeDee Lamb, Prescott has maybe the NFL’s best wide receiver at his disposal. But the Dallas depth chart behind Lamb isn’t especially imposing, and the Cowboys ground game is a major question mark entering 2024.
Of course, if the Cowboys struggle running the ball, that just means more reliance on Prescott and the passing game—and a real chance that Prescott surpasses 4,500 passing yards for the second consecutive year.
Projected Stats: 68.3 completion percentage, 4,621 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 221 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
There’s admittedly no guarantee that rookie Bo Nix will be the Week 1 starter for the Denver Broncos. But the only players standing between the former Auburn and Oregon standout are Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham.
Neither is Joe Montana. Or Tony Montana, for that matter.
Nix is also one of the most experienced quarterbacks entering the NFL. Broncos head coach Sean Payton told reporters that experience is helping him acclimate to the league.
“He’s farther along than most,” Payton said. “We’re talking about a player who has played 61 games. He’s extremely smart. He’s picked it up very quickly.”
The Broncos have holdover passing-game talent with Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Marvin Mims. They added Josh Reynolds in free agency and drafted Troy Franklin.
But the Broncos are a flawed football team, and rookie starters almost always experience ups and downs.
Still, bad Bo Nix beats watching Wilson flounder week after week.
Projected Stats: 62.2 completion percentage, 3,116 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 217 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
Not that long ago, the Los Angeles Rams gave up multiple first-round picks in part to be rid of Jared Goff. Now, just a few years later, the Detroit Lions are paying Goff $53 million a season to stick around.
Funny what a run to the NFC Championship Game can do for a player’s career.
Of course, Goff also led the Rams to a Super Bowl. And that’s the thing—despite being 16 games over .500 as an NFL starter, passing for over 4,500 yards three times and throwing over 100 more touchdown passes than interceptions in his career, Goff is rarely mentioned among the best quarterbacks in the game.
However, Goff has completed over 65 percent of his passes in each of the past four seasons. He has as much offensive weaponry at his disposal as any quarterback in the league. The Lions also sport a top-five offensive line.
There’s no reason Goff and the Lions shouldn’t have another excellent season. In fact, Goff could find himself among the league leaders in a statistical category or two when all is said and done.
Projected Stats: 67.1 completion percentage, 4,713 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns
Last year, the Green Bay Packers made what could be a franchise-defining move, trading four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. After two years of holding a clipboard, it was Jordan Love’s turn to lead the offense. There were some struggles early on, but as the season progressed, so did Love, leading the Pack to a wild-card berth and a win over the Dallas Cowboys in the first round of the postseason.
Tom Brady, who allegedly knows something about playing quarterback, told Colin Cowherd that things worked out as well as they possibly could have for Love.
“He had Aaron Rodgers to watch. That’s the best type of training, in my opinion. Watch someone else do it at a very high level and then try to emulate them with your own personality,” Brady said. “Maybe a little bit of a misnomer with the draft is that these players can come in and all of the sudden become this great professional player before they’ve really had the training and the development.”
Expectations are higher for Love in his second season as Green Bay’s unquestioned starter. But with a talented cadre of young receivers at his disposal, Love has an excellent chance to better last year’s 4,159 passing yards and 31 passing scores.
Projected Stats: 65.5 completion percentage, 4,399 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 251 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns
C.J. Stroud’s future is so bright he has to wear shades.
Last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year was everything the Texans could have hoped for in 2023, completing almost 64 percent of his passes for over 4,100 yards and 23 touchdowns. Of Stroud’s 499 pass attempts, just five were intercepted—the lowest interception rate in the NFL.
However, Stroud told reporters that he realizes there is still a lot of room for improvement.
“I’m the leader of the whole offense, and really the team, so even the things that DeMeco has been saying just to build that foundation and fundamentals and doing the right things,” Stroud said.
The Texans improved their offense in a big way this offseason, adding star wideout Stefon Diggs and Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon. In Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Stroud may well have the best trio of passing-game targets in the NFL.
There are no guarantees in the NFL. But all the ingredients are there for Stroud to take the next step as a quarterback in his second season. He could threaten to lead a number of statistical categories in 2024, and there’s a reason Stroud is among the leaders in MVP odds at DraftKings.
The NFL’s next megastar quarterback has his true coming-out party in 2024.
Projected Stats: 65.7 completion percentage, 4,771 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 171 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns
Anthony Richardson’s rookie season was everything that scouts loved and hated about his game—all rolled up in a four-game package.
When Richardson was out there, he was every bit as electrifying as some expected him to be—Richardson’s scrambling ability and raw arm talent were on full display for all to see. But concerns that Richardson’s scrambling could lead to injuries were borne out when first a concussion and then a shoulder injury placed him on the shelf.
However, Richardson told reporters that he doesn’t think he has to dial his aggressiveness back to stay on the field.
“I don’t feel like there’s anything wrong with my play style,” he said. “People see me, I’m a big quarterback so they always think, ‘He wants to run the ball. He wants to be physical and that is what’s going to get him hurt.’ That’s not the case… everything else just happened because we play a dangerous game.”
The talent is there with Richardson. The offensive firepower is around him, including the addition of rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell. So long as Richardson can stay on the field, a Lamar Jackson-esque dual-threat breakout is a genuine possibility.
Projected Stats: 62.2 completion percentage, 3,133 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 1,002 rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns
Eleven games into the 2023 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were an 8-3 first-place team. Then quarterback Trevor Lawrence got banged up and the Jags fell apart and won just one game the rest of the way.
While speaking to reporters, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said he expects a healthy Lawrence’s third season in his offense to be far and away the best.
“When we got him three years ago, he was just learning our system and kind of quiet and just trying to go through the motions a little bit of just trying to adapt to us and get a feel for us,” Pederson said. “Now he’s engaging and giving us ideas. Now he’s giving us suggestions and ideas and really becoming another coach, a set of eyes on the field.”
The Jaguars lost wide receiver Calvin Ridley to free agency, but the additions of veteran Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. should offset that. Lawrence has shown flashes of being the difference-maker the team thought it was getting with the first overall pick in 2021.
He has $200 million-plus reasons to put it all together in 2024, whether it’s to earn a massive extension or justify the one he could get before the season.
Projected Stats: 65.9 completion percentage, 4,319 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 302 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
You may not have heard this, but Patrick Mahomes is pretty
good at the whole playing quarterback thing.
After their victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super
Bowl LVIII, the Kansas City Chiefs have won three Super Bowls over the past
five years—including the last two. The Chiefs have played in four Super Bowls
over that span, and this year they are attempting to accomplish something no
team ever has—lift the Lombardi three years in a row.
We know that Mahomes is more than capable of posting big
numbers—the 28-year-old has thrown for over 5,000 yards twice, and Mahomes is
one of two quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns
in the same season.
It may take a similarly gaudy season to pull off the
three-peat. But the Chiefs have given Mahomes the tools to do just that—after spending
most of 2023 trying to overcome a lack of talent at receiver, Kansas City added
veteran Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy in the offseason.
Give Mahomes the weapons, and he will shred just about any
defense in the league. We have seen it before—and in 2024, we are going to see
it again.
Projected Stats: 67.0 completion percentage, 5,052
passing yards, 41 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 344 rushing yards, 4 rushing
touchdowns
You might be expecting to see Aidan O’Connell listed here. After all, when OTAs opened, it was the second-year pro who took the first snap with the first team—not Minshew, who came over in free agency after making 13 starts for the Colts last year.
While speaking to reporters, head coach Antonio Pierce praised O’Connell’s growth this offseason—while also saying that nothing is certain under center this season in Sin City.
“Aidan’s earned the right to go out there and get the first snap,” Pierce said. “What he’s done this offseason—changing his body, his work ethic, being here every day, blocking out the outside noise. He’s not worried about anything. I’m excited. Then you bring Gardner in here … talk about personality. … It’s great. It’s great for our building. It’s great for our quarterback room. And if you got competition in the quarterback room, what does every other room look at?”
O’Connell was OK last year, and he’s likely headed down a similar career path as Minshew—that of a really good backup who can make a spot start here and there. But while Minshew may make more mistakes with the ball, his willingness to take chances also gives him a higher ceiling. With the passing-game weapons, questions in the backfield and issues on the offensive line and defense, the Raiders need ceiling.
Besides, if Minshew can string a few wins together, his personality in Las Vegas will make for some outstanding entertainment.
Projected Stats: 62.2 completion percentage, 3,691 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 161 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
There may not be a harder quarterback in the entire NFL to project for 2024 than Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.
On one hand, we’ve seen Herbert put up some gaudy stats in the past, including 5,014 passing yards in his Pro Bowl season in 2021. On the other hand, Herbert is coming off far and away the worst season of his career, new Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh brings with him a run-centric offense and there has been a staggering amount of turnover in the Chargers offense.
Keenan Allen? Gone. So is Mike Williams. And running back Austin Ekeler. The team added rookie Ladd McConkey and veteran journeyman DJ Chark, but it’s impossible to look at the Bolts and say the passing game is better this year than last.
If there’s a silver lining statistically, it’s this—the Chargers are a team with issues that go well beyond the receiver room. And given their issues defensively, Herbert could well either be playing in a lot of shootouts or coming from behind with regularity.
So numbers may be there, even if the wins aren’t.
Projected Stats: 65.1 completion percentage, 4,063 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 224 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
It’s been a wild ride for Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles.
In his first season in Los Angeles, Stafford won his first Super Bowl. That was followed by an injury-marred 2022 that was arguably the worst season of his career. Stafford rebounded in 2023, leading the Rams to the postseason while flirting with 4,000 passing yards and posting a passer rating above 90.
Some may see the 36-year-old Stafford as past his prime. But Trevor Sikkema of Pro Football Focus ranked Stafford seventh among all NFL quarterbacks—ahead of Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud and Aaron Rodgers.
“Something something about fine wines getting better with age,” he said. “Stafford had a fantastic season at age 35. His 83.8 passing grade in the regular season ranked seventh in the league, while his 32 big-time throws were the fifth most and his 2.1% turnover-worthy play rate placed second, behind only Prescott. Stafford has long had one of the best arms in the league, and even if that total arm talent is going down slightly, he’s making up for it with wisdom, creativity and craftiness.”
If he stays healthy, Stafford has the weapons around him to sail past 4,000 passing yards. It would mark the 10th such season of his Hall of Fame career.
That’s right. I said it.
Projected Stats: 64.0 completion percentage, 4,242 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 48 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns
It doesn’t get a ton of run, but Tua Tagovailoa is the NFL’s reigning passing king—his 4,624 passing yards in 2023 paced the league. Those big-time numbers have churned up big-time talk about a big-time contract extension, but what has head coach Mike McDaniel big-time excited (this is some big-time writing, right here) is a third year together for quarterback and coach.
“It’s been very exciting because at this point we’re like, ‘All right, well, let’s really push ourselves to really challenge this guy,’ because all he ends up doing is rising to the challenge within what we ask him to do,” McDaniel told reporters. “I think to expect the same if not more growth within your game from each year, I don’t think is crazy. I think for us to expect just as much if not more from Year 2 to Year 3 is very safe for our expectations and I know he feels the same way, too.”
It’s hard to envision a quarterback outside Patrick Mahomes in a better position to put up numbers in 2024 than Tagovailoa. Miami’s offensive skill-position talent is cartoonishly fast—try covering multiple Road Runners all game (meep meep!). McDaniel’s offense is a quarterback’s dream—Madden but for reals.
Injury is the only thing that will keep Tagovailoa from
throwing for 4,500 yards again.
Projected Stats: 67.4 completion percentage, 4,621
passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 81 rushing yards, 0 rushing
touchdowns
We’re going to project rookie J.J. McCarthy as the year-long starter for the Minnesota Vikings at quarterback—projecting stats for Sam Darnold just seems mean to Vikes fans.
After the Vikings drafted McCarthy 10th overall in April, Minnesota general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah told reporters that they weren’t going to rush him onto the field.
“A lot of times when we go back over history and say, ‘These quarterbacks have missed,’ there’s a lot of hands that are dirty in that regard,” he said. “And we’re going to make sure that our hands are clean and give him the best opportunity he can to be the best player he can be in this offense.”
McCarthy has no shortage of experience, even if he didn’t throw the ball a ton at Michigan. In wide receivers Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson, the weapons are there in the passing game.
It’s not a bad situation for a young quarterback to find himself in. The larger question as we move through the summer is whether McCarthy will be ready to take advantage of it.
Projected Stats: 63.2 completion percentage, 3,405 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 168 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
Once again, we’re going to go ahead and project the shiny new rookie quarterback as the starter under center. After all, the Patriots used a top-three pick in April in the hopes that North Carolina’s Drake Maye will be what Mac Jones wasn’t—a viable long-term option at quarterback.
Veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett will open OTAs as the starter, however—and Pats executive Eliot Wolf told Up and Adams that the team won’t rush Maye out there before he’s ready.
“Drake Maye — let’s be honest, we’ve had him for three weeks now. There’s a long way to go for all of our rookies and all of our players as we adapt to this new scheme that (offensive coordinator Alex) Van Pelt is implementing offensively,” he said. “We’ll have those conversations as they arise. I’m sure it’s gonna be a collaborative approach, as it’s been so far with really all the big decisions that we’ve made. All four of the quarterbacks that we have on the roster right now are working hard and ready to go.”
When Maye takes the reins is largely a matter of how quickly the rookie looks the part. But while that’s under his control, what isn’t is a collection of passing-game “weapons” that may be among the NFL’s weakest.
That’s not going to make it easy for any Patriots quarterback to have consistent success.
Projected Stats: 59.6 completion percentage, 2,822 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 127 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Derek Carr has spent most of his career in the in-between.
The 32-year-old has never been considered an elite quarterback by any stretch.
He is 15 games under .500 as an NFL starter and lost his only postseason start.
But Carr has also been good enough to make 159 regular-season starts for the Las
Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints and tally over $165 million in career
earnings.
Heading into his second season in the Big Easy, Carr told
reporters that he expects the Saints to be a markedly better team in 2024.
“Last year we were so excited. Everyone was so excited,
but we really didn’t show why we were so excited until it was too late,”
Carr said. “So, for us, you get humbled a little bit. That’s unacceptable
for what we have in that room.”
No one is going to confuse Carr with Drew Brees any time
soon. But he quietly completed over 68 percent of his passes last season with
25 touchdown passes against just eight interceptions.
Carr isn’t a great quarterback. But he’s a good one. And in an NFC South that lacks a clear-cut favorite, Carr’s performance this year will go a long way toward determining if the Saints are a factor in the playoff chase.
Projected Stats: 68.2 completion percentage, 3,998
passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 87 rushing yards, 0 rushing
touchdowns
Boy, we hit something of a depressing stretch on this list.
Daniel Jones wasn’t supposed to fall into that category. After the Giants’ surprise playoff run two years ago, New York extended Jones, who appeared to have turned a corner as a player.
Unfortunately, the corner he turned was into oncoming traffic. Last year, Jones played in just six games. When he was out there Jones was mostly atrocious, only averaging about 150 passing yards per game and throwing six picks against just two scores.
Former Giants great Carl Banks told reporters that a New York offensive line that surrendered a staggering 85 sacks in 2023 played a large part in the 27-year-old’s struggles.
“[Jones] didn’t play well last year prior to getting injured,” he said. “But he would tell you that too. There’s a cause and effect to that. People always accuse me of being a Daniel Jones sympathizer, but I understand how the game is played and fans see it in a different lens. You have to look at the entire process of why people fail or succeed.”
New York tried to upgrade the offensive line in the offseason. And the team has a No. 1 receiver in 2024 after using its first draft pick on LSU’s Malik Nabers.
But if Jones comes out of the gate this year as poorly as last, calls for free-agent addition Drew Lock to supplant him won’t be far behind.
Projected Stats: 65.8 completion percentage, 3,017 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 481 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns
At this point one year ago, the Aaron Rodgers hype train was
barreling down the tracks. With a four-time MVP under center, the New York Jets
would be a tomato can no more. Long-suffering fans were talking playoffs. Maybe
even Super Bowl.
Then Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon on the first offensive series of the season. Just like that, Zach Wilson was back at quarterback for Gang Green—and the team’s status as a tomato can was solidified yet again.
Per Jack Bell of the team’s website, Rodgers allowed that last year was challenging. But he’s hoping to channel that adversity into an excellent 2024 campaign.
“There’s been a lot of beauty that’s come out of the heartbreak and frustration,” Rodgers said, “and I’m gonna try and channel as much as I can to this season, these guys, trying to give our fans a lot to cheer about.”
The Jets solidified the offensive line in the offseason and
added passing-game weapons in veteran Mike Williams and rookie Malachi Corley.
Now, the looming question is whether a 40-year-old quarterback can shake off a
major injury and return to the form that saw him throw 111 touchdowns against
just 21 interceptions from 2020 to 2022.
Projected Stats: 66.4 completion percentage, 4,242
passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 128 rushing yards, 3 rushing
touchdowns
For a good chunk of the 2023 season, the Philadelphia Eagles looked the part of the NFC’s best team—again. Quarterback Jalen Hurts was an MVP candidate. But both player and team floundered down the stretch, with Philly dropping five of its final six regular-season games before getting waxed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
The Eagles were aggressive upgrading the roster in the offseason, including the addition of star running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley told reporters that he has already been impressed by what he has seen from his new quarterback.
“I’ve always admired his game from afar,” Barkley said. “It’s been fun to learn the system, get in the weight room with these guys, get on the field with these guys, especially Jalen and continue to build something.”
It’s all there in the City of Brotherly Love. Offensive weapons galore. Arguably the best offensive front in the NFL. And a talented dual-threat quarterback who has already led his team to the Super Bowl.
Of course, with all that talent also comes expectations. A deep playoff run is expected in Philadelphia. And a slow start to the 2024 season would most assuredly not be well-received by the fanbase.
Projected Stats: 66.3 completion percentage, 4,011 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 783 rushing yards, 11 rushing touchdowns
This analyst would love to project Justin Fields here instead of Russell Wilson—the former has a higher ceiling, and Fields’ escapability adds another dimension to the Pittsburgh offense.
However, Wilson offers the Steelers a higher floor, head coach Mike Tomlin has already stated that he will open training camp as the team’s starter, and while appearing on 93.7 The Fan, Mark Kaboly of The Athletic said that Wilson has been impressive on the practice field.
“A lot of balls down the field, and he was pretty accurate with some deep balls there,” he said. “Tight spirals, very accurate. He was to that point where Ben [Roethlisberger] was later in his career where he threw to a spot, threw to get guys open. I mean, that’s just veteran. That’s being around — throwing, you know, 20,000 balls in your career where you can throw guys open a lot, and you could tell what Russell Wilson has a lot of that characteristics.”
That comparison may be a bit hyperbolic. But Wilson quietly completed over 66 percent of his passes last year in Denver with 25 touchdowns against just eight interceptions.
If the Steelers can get even that level of play from the 35-year-old Wilson, Pittsburgh is going to be a factor in the AFC North race.
Projected Stats: 66.5 completion percentage, 3,295 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 327 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns
Brock Purdy has well and truly ruined the concept of “Mr. Irrelevant.”
In just two seasons, Purdy has gone from the final pick in the 2022 NFL draft to the starting quarterback for the defending NFC champions. Last year he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 4,280 yards and 31 scores.
Purdy is hardly the only reason that the 49ers very nearly won the Super Bowl a year ago—San Francisco may have the most well-rounded roster 1 to 53 in the entire NFL. But veteran linebacker Fred Warner told reporters that if the 49ers are going to make another deep playoff run, it will be in large part because of the biggest NFL draft steal in recent memory.
“He’s had a lot of experience just within a short two years, and his best ball is ahead of him, which is scary because he has played at an MVP level,” Warner said. “When the time does come, he’ll be the reason we have an opportunity to win a Super Bowl.”
It’s all there for Purdy. And if he posts another season in 2024 like last year, then a year from now he’s going to be in line for quite possibly the biggest salary bump the league has ever seen.
Projected Stats: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,317 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 131 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
The 2024 season is a time of great uncertainty in the Emerald City. Longtime Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is gone, replaced by Mike Macdonald. After a resurgent season that earned him Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2022, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith backslid statistically last season.
Smith’s 2023 struggles have raised questions about his long-term viability as Seattle’s starter. But Macdonald told reporters that he has been impressed by the manner in which Smith has attacked learning Ryan Grubb’s offense.
“I love how Geno works,” he said. “We are pushing him to take the next step as a football player and as a leader, and he’s answering the call. I’m really excited about Geno up to this point. I have such a respect for how hard this man works at his craft.”
In DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith has an impressive trio of wide receivers at his disposal. Kenneth Walker III is an excellent young running back. But the key to Smith’s 2024 prospects is an offensive line that Dallas Robinson of Pro Football Network ranked 26th in the NFL.
Projected Stats: 66.9 completion percentage, 4,037 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 201 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
The 2023 season in Tampa Bay featured a Baker bounce-back.
Playing under a one-year, $4 million contract, Baker Mayfield had maybe the best season of his professional career—career bests in completion percentage (64.3), passing yards (4,044) and touchdown passes (28) on the way to an NFC South title and postseason win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
That season got Mayfield a hefty raise, but head coach Todd Bowles told reporters that despite the new paycheck, Mayfield arrived at OTAs just as hungry to succeed this season in new offensive coordinator’s Liam Coen offense.
“It’s the same Baker, it’s just him and Liam [Coen] getting on the same page, him and Thad [Lewis] getting on the same page [and] embracing the offense that is getting installed and checking to the right plays,” Bowles said. “The drive and the vigor is always there, but the maturity of how he’s handling the situation right now – learning a new offense – has been great.”
The offense may be new, but Mayfield has familiarity with it from his brief stint with the Los Angeles Rams. He also has essentially the same skill-position talent around him as a year ago.
Provided that Mayfield can avoid the turnovers that dogged him at times in Cleveland, a similar performance to last season isn’t an unrealistic expectation.
Projected Stats: 64.0 completion percentage, 3,902 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 145 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
The good news for second-year quarterback Will Levis of the Tennessee Titans is that the team has attempted to put him in position to succeed. The team added Calvin Ridley to the wideout room in the offseason and replaced the departed Derrick Henry at running back with Tony Pollard.
New head coach Brian Callahan told Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated that in spite of an uneven rookie season, he has confidence that Levis can take a major step forward in Year 2 of his career.
“You see he’s athletic, he’s strong, he’s tough,” Callahan said. “He’ll stand in the pocket and he’s got a great release. It’s quick. And he’s got a really legitimate arm. And he will play a little bit in that kind of swashbuckling style. He was trying to earn guys’ respect. He was trying to show people he could play. That’s part of earning your way as a young quarterback. He did some things that I think that his teammates rallied around, which was fun to watch.”
Levis is big. He’s athletic. And he can make every throw on the field. But he’ll have to play with more consistency and cut down on the turnovers to show he can be a long-term solution under center in Nashville.
Projected Stats: 60.3 completion percentage, 3,519 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 181 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns
After a miserable 2023 season marred by inconsistent (to be kind) quarterback play, the Washington Commanders used the second pick in the 2024 draft to select Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.
Provided that Daniels doesn’t completely face-plant in camp, the former LSU standout will probably open the year as Washington’s starting quarterback. Fellow signal-caller Marcus Mariota (who himself was once the second overall pick) told reporters that from early indications, Daniels appears up to the task.
“I think he really moves well, throws the ball well and for a young guy that’s coming in, seems to really, like, command the offense and I think that’s important,” Mariota said. “I think that’s very important in the quarterback position to be able to like stand in front of these guys, especially older players, and kind of nail it and say, ‘I got this, I got it figured out.’ So, I think he’s done a great job of that.”
The Commanders have some offensive weapons, led by wideout Terry McLaurin. Daniels is an electrifying talent capable of hurting opponents with his arms and legs.
But between the usual rookie growing pains and an offensive line that is among the worst in the NFC, Daniels’ inaugural season will likely be something of a roller coaster.
Projected Stats: 61.6 completion percentage, 3,744 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 553 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns