• The Browns have everything in place: Headlined by Myles Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and an edge defender who has earned a 90.0-plus pass-rush grade in each of the past five seasons, the Browns’ roster was good enough to make the playoffs with a 38-year-old Joe Flacco at quarterback down the stretch in 2023.
• The Seahawks might be being mispriced: At +7500, the Seahawks currently have the 11th-longest odds of winning the Super Bowl. That’s despite having one of the league’s best wide receiver trios and a quarterback who has earned a top-12 passing grade in each of the past two seasons.
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We’re less than three months away from the start of the 2024 NFL season, and if history has taught us anything, it’s that multiple teams will likely prove to be surprise packages once the campaign begins.
So, we analyzed the data to identify teams that may be overlooked based on their current odds of winning the Super Bowl on FanDuel.
Cleveland Browns
At +4000, the Browns are tied for 15th in Super Bowl odds at this point in the offseason. They have to get through arguably the toughest division in football and have the hardest schedule heading into the season, but they also have one of the best rosters in football.
Headlined by Myles Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and an edge defender who has earned a 90.0-plus pass-rush grade in each of the past five seasons, the Browns’ roster was good enough to make the playoffs with a 38-year-old Joe Flacco at quarterback down the stretch in 2023. If Deshaun Watson can even be a top-16 quarterback in the NFL in 2024, the Browns will make some noise.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are tied with the Jets for the 11th-best Super Bowl odds. Sure, it’s understandable for people to be somewhat down on them, given how the 2023 season ended, alongside the fact that the Bills and Jets are in the same division. However, this team was in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 17 last season.
They are the only team in the NFL that fielded two wide receivers who earned a 90.0-plus receiving grade last season. Tyreek Hill averaged 3.72 yards per route run, the highest mark at the position, while Jaylen Waddle tied for 10th in the same metric at 2.52.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa‘s 88.6 passing grade also led the league, so this offense is still capable of powering the team to the top spot in the AFC if it can get off to a fast start in 2024.
Los Angeles Chargers
Every AFC West team that is not the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs is going to be somewhat overlooked at this point of the year, so it’s not a huge shock to see the Chargers tied for the 18th-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +5000. However, they are still a team with a top-10 quarterback, and they now have a head coach who knows what it takes to get to the Super Bowl.
Justin Herbert earned an 83.1 passing grade a season ago, 10th in the NFL and the second-highest mark of his career so far. Through four seasons in the league, he has yet to earn a PFF passing grade below 75.0.
While Herbert did lose Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at wide receiver this offseason, the Chargers will expect more out of 2023 first-round draft pick Quentin Johnston, and they also spent an early second-round pick on Georgia’s Ladd McConkey.
Seattle Seahawks
At +7500, the Seahawks currently have the 11th-longest odds of winning the Super Bowl. That’s despite having one of the league’s best wide receiver trios and a quarterback who has earned a top-12 passing grade in each of the past two seasons.
Their potential success in 2024 likely hinges on how quickly their defensive players can take to new head coach Mike Macdonald’s scheme. The former Ravens defensive coordinator wowed the league over the past two seasons and gave the Seahawks’ NFC West rivals, the San Francisco 49ers, nightmares on Christmas Day last season. However, it took him a little bit of time to get going in Baltimore, with the Ravens ranking fifth-worst in success rate allowed (46.3%) over his first nine weeks as a defensive coordinator back in 2022.
If he can avoid that slow start with the Seahawks defense this season, this is a team that could shock everyone to contend for the divisional crown in 2024.
Tennessee Titans
While I’m not saying the Titans should be viewed as a lock for a playoff spot, I’m not sure I see them as a team worthy of having the fifth-longest odds of winning the Super Bowl — as they currently are listed on FanDuel (+13000).
Quarterback Will Levis showed flashes as a rookie, finishing 2023 tied for fifth in big-time throw rate (5.9%). And he now has Calvin Ridley pairing with DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver, as well as a better offensive line thanks to the addition of Brian Callahan as offensive line coach.
If Levis can reduce the bad plays—his 4.5% turnover-worthy play rate as a rookie tied for eighth-worst in the league—then the Titans should at least compete for a playoff spot late in the season.