Nine races will be run and won at Eagle Farm on Saturday for QLD Oaks Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out 2.5 metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (11:43) Mittys (Bm90) 1800m
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10 Age Of Sail (Bet Now: $3.20) is a very promising son of Frankel for Kris Lees that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Feb 3 when a game second over 2000m here behind Kettle Hill in a driving go, just missing. Impressive first up winner last prep at his Aussie debut and his trials to get ready have been strong.
Danger
7 Princess Rhaenys (Bet Now: $3.50) looks to have come back in good order for Tony Gollan. She did more than enough fresh in the Silk Stocking at the Sunny Coast before going to Doomben two weeks ago where she was solid in defeat but probably not as dynamic, perhaps dropping off the strong return. Third up and hard fit, her best is good enough.
Long Shot
5 Nikau Spur (Bet Now: $13.00) is back on track and commands respect. Outclassed, race shape not ideal two back in The Archer before stepping up to the mile in the Members where he was very good in defeat from the back when third to Gringotts. If he can settle closer in the run, he’ll still be effective late and is one of the leading chances.
Race 2. (12:18) U&U Recruitment Hcp (C6) 1200m
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5 Pizarro (Bet Now: $10.00) is unbeaten in two runs for Tony Gollan and no reason why he can’t make it three. The two wins have come at Ipswich, both at 1200m. Each time he has settled off the speed before angling wider into clear air and has let down with purpose to win. Good test here, but confident he can measure up.
Danger
8 Vodka Martini (Bet Now: $3.90) can bounce back for Kelly Schweida. He was a bit on the plain side first up here behind Shalaa’s Moment before having a few weeks ago. He then went to Doomben a fortnight back and ran a much improved race from near the speed when third to My Snow Queen. Now he’s found positive form, he can go on with it.
Long Shot
9 Safework (Bet Now: $51.00) is a knockout chance at odds. Scott Morrisey trained gelding that resumed at the Sunny Coast a few weeks back. He got back from the inside gate and did make up some ground but was never really a threat behind Pereille. Might need another run, but stable is sneaky flying, he has good upside and should be strong late.
Race 3. (12:53) The Phoenix 1500m
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8 Aemelius (Bet Now: $1.85) looks like a filly that has an engine under the good. This girl caught the eye on debut at Newcastle before going to Randwick where she gave them a start and a beating, launching late out wide to win and win well. Jumps straight to 1500m, but she’s racing as if she’ll eat it up, and with good upside, appeals.
Danger
9 Canara (Bet Now: $5.00) is a beauty for Chris Waller and I think she’ll be taking beating against these. This girl comes through the Bill Carter from two weeks ago where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never beating the first two, Clean Energy and Lady Shenandoah, she did make up ground and comfortably beat the rest. She was coming back from 1400m too so back up in trip, depth nowhere near as deep, she looks hard to beat.
Long Shot
11 Miss Trustful (Bet Now: $21.00) is on the seven day back up for Ciaron Maher after winning last Saturday at Beaudesert where she was the subject of a significant late drift in betting but nobody told her that as she made a mess of them and was impressive late in the piece, suggesting that 1500m is fine and overall, this isn’t a strong race.
Race 4. (13:28) Lightning Hcp 1000m
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12 Shalaa’s Moment (Bet Now: $7.00) for me. O’Dea/Hoysted trained gelding that is humming at the moment, with his last run coming on April 27 over this track/distance, giving them a start and a beating, launching over the top for a big win in a good effort. Good test here at Stakes grade, but he’s a 1000m horse in a 1000m race. Appeals.
Danger
10 Xtravagant Star (Bet Now: $4.60) is flying for Ciaron Maher and commands respect. She comes through the Bright Shadow from three weeks ago where she got back off the speed and kept chasing but was still good in defeat when third to impressive winner Aureus Angel. She does seem effective at the short course and I think she only has to hold her form to be around the mark.
Long Shot
13 Flaming Conquest (Bet Now: $46.00) is a short course specialist who will likely lead and give cheek. Class and pure speed saw him win two back over 800m at Ipswich before going to 1000m at the Sunny Coast on a bottomless deck and struggled in the conditions behind Hardware Lane. Better suited here…doubt he wins but can run top four.
Race 5. (14:03) Spear Chief Hcp 1500m
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3 Yellow Brick… (Bet Now: $2.35) is he nearing last chance territory? Just missed out on the win first up before going to the BRC Sprint at Doomben where he seemingly had every chance but he didn’t quite finish the race off and was a bit on the plain side late behind Here To Shock. Hard fit, firmer deck, up in trip…he gets his chance, but I say it is last chance.
Danger
7 Gravina (Bet Now:
$SP.00) seems to be flying for Matty Dale and for mine, is one of the leading chances. He comes through the Luskin Star at Scone three weeks ago where he got back in the run but finished off hard, just missing out on the win in a really good effort when third to Coastwatch. Hard fit now, can settle closer, hard to beat.
Long Shot
1 Surf Dancer (Bet Now: $26.00) can be a big improver here for GaiBott. He resumed in the BRC Sprint at Doomben two weeks back where the market said he may need the run and potentially was a risk on the wet ground. That is how it eventuated, finishing down the track. Good room for improvement, firmer deck, he can bounce back.
Race 6. (14:38) Queensland Day Stakes 1200m
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I reckon the early markets missed 14 Fortuneer (Bet Now: $9.50). $4/$3.30 first up, the market said she was there to rock and roll, but she just found the 1110m at Doomben too sharp, but I loved the way she closed her race off, with her last 200m being the best of the race, comfortably. I think she’ll love getting to 1200m, Eagle Farm, and if she can settle closer, gee I think she’ll only run well.
Danger
The Price/Kent stable have been flying in their Brisbane raid so far this Carnival so with that in mind, you have to give respect to 1 Hedged (Bet Now: $2.60), who is several weeks between runs since racing at Caulfield on Showdown Day when placing over 1200m behind Celui, who has measured up in Brisbane since, so that clearly reads well for this.
Long Shot
5 Skirt The Law (Bet Now: $12.00) hasn’t quite set the world on fire since her 2YO season but she hasn’t been racing too bad I feel. She ran two weeks ago in the Darby McCarthy where she was off the speed and chasing but kept on and kept finding the line in a good effort behind Tiger Shark. Fitter, up in trip, and hopefully a firmer deck, she has the class to bounce back.
Race 7. (15:13) Magic Millions National Classic 1600m
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I am stunned there was $2.80 on offer for 1 La Crique (Bet Now: $2.30) earlier in the week. She is a proper Group l mare at her best and while she probably isn’t at the level she was 18 months ago, her recent efforts in NZ have been very good behind class types, including Legarto, Skew Wiff and Aegon. Back to a very thin Mares race, WFA…I can mark her $1.50 and really, she is getting towards bet of the year territory to my eye
Danger
5 Zoe’s Promise (Bet Now: $15.00) will jump on the bunny and look to give her all. She spanked them fresh here over 1400m, running time, before going to the mile at Doomben where she led and gave a strong sight but just couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Maracana and finished fourth. Fitter, and I reckon with a touch more patience re the ride, she’ll take beating.
Long Shot
6 Maracana (Bet Now: $20.00) is in a purple patch for Danny O’Brien and has to be given some form of respect. She won two weeks back at Doomben, getting a beaut steer from Dee and in a driving finish, she was too good. She was coming off a B70 win, so she handled the rise in quality…can she repeat the dose?
Race 8. (15:52) Queensland Oaks 2200m
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10 Good Banter (Bet Now: $18.00) is a filly I am not dismissing. I thought her run in The Roses had good merit to it given she was tardy to begin and had to make her run nearer the inside, which was complete quicksand, so forgive and forget the run. Her run in the Adrian Knox when beating Autumn Angel, gee it reads well and I think on the bigger track, hopefully in better ground, she can bounce back hard.
Danger
4 Scarlet Oak (Bet Now: $3.50) is a beauty for Chris Waller and has to be given serious respect. She was a strong winner of The Roses at Doomben. She got a 12/10 from J Mac and despite the margin only being 0.2L, she was strong and impressive once again. She seems to be getting better with racing and the way she won last time, 2000m to 2200m should be no issue. Hard to beat.
Long Shot
9 Ahuriri (Bet Now: $5.50) is a filly I have a stack of time for and I love that they kept her on ice for this. She should have gone close to winning the SA Derby but had zero luck in the run, through no real fault of Craig Williams IMO. Just a victim of circumstances, but she was very good late in the piece. She’ll eat up 2200m of Eagle Farm and has fresh legs. Appeals big time as an each way bet.
Race 9. (16:29) Moreton Cup 1200m
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Giving serious respect to 13 Iowna Merc (Bet Now:
$SP.00). This guy resumed three weeks ago in the Ortensia at Scone where I thought King absolutely carved her. Just dragged back after jumping well and gave up all hope. The finale was incredible I thought. Just needs to settle closer, harness his energy, and I think he’ll be launching at them late.
Danger
8 Insurrection (Bet Now: $8.00) is a big improver for Michael Freedman. He comes through the Ortensia at Scone where he paraded like he may have needed the run and that’s how it eventuated, just feeling the pinch late in the piece after sitting on speed behind Opal Ridge. Very genuine horse and better for the run, he appeals.
Long Shot
5 All That Pizzazz (Bet Now: $10.00) looks ready to win for Tony Gollan. He comes through the Bat Out Of Hell from a few weeks ago at the Sunny Coast. He was run off his legs early and got back to near last in the run but I loved the way he closed off late in the piece when third to the well tried Hardware Lane. That is two runs at 1000m to start the prep so rising to 1200m, he’s hard to beat for me.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 La Crique
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 8 Aemelius
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 10 Good Banter
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 14
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg Four: 5, 7, 8, 13
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
