Utilities (down 1.1 per cent) was the weakest sector, with AGL shares down 1.4 per cent and Meridian 1.7 per cent. Pro Medicus (down 5.1 per cent) was the biggest large-cap decliner.
The lowdown
In a report about the economy, Citi Research mused that stronger-than-expected inflation data has made it harder for the Reserve Bank to maintain the current cash rate.
“We pencil a 25 [basis-point] increase in the cash rate in August to 4.6 per cent. Not raising rates risks policy credibility and would signal a dilution in importance of inflation, which would be unheralded,” said Citi Research head of economics Josh Williamson in a research note to clients.
Morgan Stanley is also forecasting a rate hike in August, but its equity strategists acknowledged that this was not a consensus view after conversations with investors.
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“While the RBA has shown a clear preference to not accelerate the downward path of inflation with tighter policy, the stalling of progress over 2024 is much more consequential and is likely to raise concerns around broader inflation expectations,” wrote Morgan Stanley researchers.
Overseas, Wall Street’s record-breaking rally kept going after weak reports on the US economy kept the door open for possible cuts to interest rates.
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.5 per cent to set a record high for a second straight day and for the 33rd time this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.9 per cent to eclipse the record set a day earlier. Trading ended early for the day ahead of the July 4 public holiday.
Tesla again helped boost the market and rose 6.5 per cent a day after reporting a milder drop in sales for the spring than analysts feared. It was one of the strongest forces pushing the S&P 500 up, along with Nvidia. The darling of Wall Street’s rush into artificial-intelligence technology climbed 4.6 per cent to bring the chip company’s gain for the year so far to 159 per cent.
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The action was stronger in the bond market, where Treasury yields slid following a flurry of reports that came in weaker than expected on both the jobs market and US services companies. The data could keep the Federal Reserve on course to deliver the cuts to interest rates later this year that Wall Street desires.
One report said activity for businesses in the real estate, retail trade and other US services industries contracted in June for just the third time in 49 months. The reading was weaker than economists’ forecasts, which called for just a slowing of growth. Perhaps more importantly for Wall Street, the report from the Institute Supply Management also said prices were increasing at a slower pace.
That followed reports from earlier in the morning showing a slowing jobs market. One said slightly more US workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than economists expected, though the number remains low compared with history.