The June jobs report beat expectations, with 206,000 new jobs added to the US labor market and topping expectations of 190,000. Ameriprise Financial Vice President of Equity Research Justin Burgin joins the Morning Brief to analyze market implications (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) following this report.
Burgin characterizes the data positively, stating, “It was just a good report.” He highlights the job additions and the unemployment numbers, noting that “it beats what we got last month.” Regarding the unemployment increase, Burgin explains it could create favorable conditions for Federal Reserve policy, telling Yahoo Finance “the Fed wants job growth to slow, plain and simple.” Despite this, Burgin maintains an optimistic economic outlook, projecting GDP growth at 2.1%.
Overall, Burgin views the jobs report as bullish for markets, saying, “That’s what economists want to see, this gradual slowing of the economy. You have a job market that’s not imploding, consumer spending still continues to be strong, corporate profits are strong, that’s why the market keeps hitting highs.”
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This post was written by Angel Smith
Video Transcript
Futures are higher after the US economy added more jobs than expected.
In June here, the data slightly tamping expectations for a rate cut in September, over 71% of traders are betting on a cut all in.
But that’s down from before the report’s release for more on this.
Let’s bring in Justin Bergen, who is the Ameriprise Financial Vice President of Equity Research here, Justin, thanks so much for taking the time here this morning.
You know, let’s just start off with the data that we saw come through in the jobs report here.
I wanna get your read in on it and what this signals for the pathway for rate cuts.
Yeah, absolutely.
Thanks for having me this morning.
Uh I think one of your previous guest made to come in fireworks and I hope you saw him yesterday because it wasn’t this morning.
It was just a good report, right?
I mean, you’re adding over 200,000 jobs, uh, in a month, your, uh, unemployment rate ticking up slightly and your wage growth.
Um, that’s 3.9% right where it should be.
So if you could put, if you could put it in a what, what could go right that out of that report.
It should be what we got last month when there, when there were quite a few fireworks.
Uh Justin here.
Good to see you.
Uh I’m just going through uh the street reaction on this report.
When do you see or do you see an acceleration in the economy?
Um, maybe because of higher stock prices and, and tighter credit spreads.
That’s some of the chat that’s, uh, coming into my box right now.
Yeah.
So actually, um, GDP is slowing, right?
So if you look at where we were last year, our consensus forecast this year is for 2.1% growth that’s down from 3.5.
But if you, if you look back at some of the pri uh, previous periods, you go to 2018, 2019 when you had similar 2% of GDP growth and then you had wage or, uh, uh, unemployment that was above where it is today.
You had job growth below where it is today and consumer spending was still strong.
So to have a 2% GDP growth rate for the economy, that’s, that’s a good place to be in.
Why is the unemployment rate going up?
But you have, you, the fed wants jobs, job growth to slow, plain and simple.
It’s not great.
You have some of the low end consumers that are being stressed, but you do have, you can’t, unemployment rate for the last 50 years has been, the average is well over 4.5%.
So, to be at this, you know, below 4% for too long, it’s very, very, very hard to, to have that type of wage growth.
What, what are the other characteristics then of normalization?
If we’re getting back to trend on markers such as the unemployment rate?
Yep.
So I think if you look at consumer spending that’s coming back down, you have the savings rate that is coming back down.
And I think if you kind of focus and shift at the earnings growth, you have 11% earnings growth, uh estimates for this year.
That’s fantastic.
Right?
I mean, Q two, you’re looking at 8.8% growth, that’s, that’s excellent growth for corporate profits and you look at the profit margin, that’s a 12% expectation for Q two.
That’s actually up quarter over quarter.
Is this report bullish or bearish for stocks?
Pardon?
Is this report bullish or bearish for stocks?
I think it’s bullish, absolutely bullish.
I think if you look at that’s, that’s what uh economists want to see is this slowing, gradual slowing of the economy, you have a job market that’s not imploding.
Consumer spending still continues to be strong.
Corporate profits are strong that that’s why the market keeps hitting highs.
And if you have this, um, 10 year coming down from 450 where it is now 4 34 28.
That, that’s what they want.
Lower rates is good for the economy.