Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Cowboys.
If nothing else, at least the offseason is ending for the Dallas Cowboys.
The past few months have been rough on Cowboys fans, who had to watch as owner Jerry Jones not only refused to extend quarterback Dak Prescott, but also allowed the roster to get unquestionably worse around him.
For Dallas, this was supposed to be a year where feelings were finalized on coach Mike McCarthy and opinions were cemented on Prescott. Instead, the Cowboys have left both in impossible positions.
If the Cowboys finally get to their first conference title game since the 1995 season, it’ll be because Prescott was brilliant and McCarthy did a masterful job … which would set up one hell of an offseason in 2025.
Biggest gamble this offseason: Deciding not to extend Prescott
We can talk about CeeDee Lamb’s contract situation. And we can talk about Micah Parsons not being extended the second he became eligible.
But the choice not to give Prescott another deal, while knowing he cannot be given the franchise tag, could prove franchise altering for better or worse.
While Prescott has deservedly been maligned at times for his playoff woes, he finished second in MVP voting last season with 36 touchdowns against nine interceptions, throwing for 4,516 yards.
If Prescott has similar numbers in 2024 and then hits free agency, there will be a robust bidding war driving his annual salary to more than $60 million. In that moment, Dallas will either have to pay more than it initially would have, or lose a top-10 quarterback.
Toughest stretch of the season: Weeks 6 to 11
Thanks to playing the NFC East and NFC South divisions for 10 of their 17 games, the Cowboys have a manageable if not downright favorable schedule.
However, they will have to survive a midseason challenge. Dallas hosts the Detroit Lions before getting an early bye. Then, it’s the San Francisco 49ers and Atlanta Falcons on the road before returning home to host the Philadelphia Eagles. In Week 11, the Cowboys stay home for an interstate battle against the Houston Texans on a Monday night.
For Dallas, going 2–3 or 3–2 is acceptable here considering how easy the rest of the schedule appears to be.
Breakout player to watch: TE Jake Ferguson
After a nondescript rookie campaign where Ferguson failed to post even 200 receiving yards, the 2022 fourth-round pick broke out.
Last season, Ferguson caught 71 passes for 761 yards and five touchdowns, helping lead Dallas to an NFC East crown. In the wild-card game against the Green Bay Packers, Ferguson was arguably the lone bright spot for the Cowboys, scoring three times.
This year, Ferguson is the second option in the passing game for an offense featuring receivers CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. If things go well for the third-year pro, he could join the conversation regarding elite tight ends.
Best-case scenario: Prescott steps up and leads the way
The Cowboys are essentially betting against Prescott this offseason by not extending his contract.
In some ways, that could motivate the MVP runner-up to have one of his best seasons yet, throwing to Ferguson, Cooks and Lamb.
While Dallas didn’t add anything of note this offseason, the Cowboys still have enough for Prescott to be dangerous. And if the offense can remain a top-10 unit, the defense is a group still led by Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence up front, and All-Pro corners Da’Ron Bland and Trevon Diggs in the secondary.
Dallas has its warts, but the roster is dangerous enough to contend if Prescott goes off.
Worst-case scenario: The crushing pressure of lame-duck years and expectations
This could well be it for McCarthy and Prescott.
Neither is getting much support from the organization, and if things start bad in Dallas, the Cowboys could go haywire quickly.
Ultimately, this is a team that has annual expectations of grandeur even when they’re unrealistic. And as owner Jerry Jones goes further into his 80s, patience is running thin.
With a lesser roster than a year ago and playoff failures fresh in everyone’s minds, Dallas is under enormous pressure to finally do something notable for the first time since the mid-1990s. It could prove too much to handle.
Head coach-quarterback ranking
No. 15: McCarthy (15) and Prescott (13)
Prescott is in the final year of his deal, and McCarthy’s seat is piping hot. Despite individual and team success, the season was a failure after Dallas was blown out in the wild-card round by the Packers. In short, no tandem is under more pressure.
Fantasy pick: RB Rico Dowdle
The Cowboys brought back Ezekiel Elliott, who is projected to be the team’s lead runner, but McCarthy expects to utilize a committee. So, while Elliott will be the first Dallas runner off the board in fantasy drafts, Dowdle should see his share of touches. And with Elliott entering his age-29 season and having a ton of punishment on his body, Dowdle could be used more often.
Best bet: Prescott over 31.5 passing touchdowns at DraftKings (+110)
With Prescott in a contract year, I’ll guess that Prescott plays with a mission. Not only does he have one of the best receivers in the game in Lamb, he still has Cooks and Ferguson. He 36 touchdown passes with that trio last season, and he’s exceeded this in two of his past three years. Though Zeke will get some goal-line carries, I like the value for Prescott to pass for 31. —Jen Piacenti
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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