NRL’s 10-way finals race broken down as dark horses set to spark chaos: Run Home 

We are two-thirds through the 2024 NRL season with nine rounds remaining and it promises to be a hell of race towards the finals.

Entering Round 19, there is just six points separating the fifth-placed Bulldogs (22pts) and 15th-placed Gold Coast Titans (16pts).

The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s top eight and top four chances as well as the likelihood of winning the minor premiership, which for now, appears to be a race in two.

Look away if you are an Eels or Tigers fan, as according to the Fox Sports Lab, your season is done, although you probably knew that already.

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Storm fans can rejoice, with your team rated a 100% chance of making the eight, with the Sharks also more or less guaranteed to be playing finals despite being in the midst of a form slump.

Note: Teams are listed below in order of top eight percentage not ladder position.

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MELBOURNE STORM (30 points, +125)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 98.6%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 60.9%

Remaining games: bye, Roosters (H), Eels (A), Dragons (H), Rabbitohs (A), Panthers (A), Dolphins (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (A)

Melbourne are low-flying at the moment and despite a horror injury toll this season, Craig Bellamy’s men have opened up a four-point buffer on top of the premiership ladder. Halfback Jahrome Hughes has been near perfect for the Storm this season and he’s needed to be with the likes of Cam Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Xavier Coates all spending a bit of time on the sideline at differing stages. The good news for the Storm is that Munster, centre Nick Meaney, Coates and damaging prop Nelson Asofa-Solomona are all expected to return in the next few weeks and well before a finals assault. Melbourne do have one of the toughest remaining draws with games against the Roosters, Panthers and Rabbitohs as well as two away games in Queensland against the Broncos and Cowboys to finish the season. With that said, they are all but certain to finish in the top four and are in the box seat to win the minor premiership.

PENRITH PANTHERS (26 points, +116)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing top eight: 99.9%

Chance of finishing top four: 96.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 31.6 %

Remaining games:bye, Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Knights (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Raiders (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (H)

Chasing a fourth straight title, Penrith are pretty well placed once again. It appears it’s a race in two between them and the Storm for the minor premiership. If you had to compare the run home for both teams, you’d have to say the Panthers have the most favourable draw until the end of the regular season, however they’ll need to make up two wins on Melbourne. A blockbuster looms at AAMI Park between the two sides in Round 24 and by then, Cam Munster and Nathan Cleary should be back for their respective sides.

SYDNEY ROOSTERS (24 points, +225)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing top eight: 98.5%

Chance of finishing top four: 75%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 3.9%

Remaining games:bye, Storm (A), Sea Eagles (H), Dolphins (A), Eels (H), Titans (A), Raiders (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Alongside the Panthers and Storm, the Roosters should be considered one of the three main premiership threats this season. Their best is simply awesome as they are able to score points at will. There is firepower everywhere you look but most importantly, they are a cohesive unit which wasn’t the case for most of last season. On 24 points with two byes in hand, the Chooks need to win just two more games from their last seven to make the eight. They will likely aim much higher though and with six very winnable games ahead, a top four finish is highly probable.

CRONULLA SHARKS (24 points, +73)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing top eight: 96.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 66%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 2.9%

Remaining games: Tigers (H), bye, Cowboys (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H), Sea Eagles (A)

Cronulla are ice cold at the moment having lost five of their past six games, however the Fox Sports Lab has given them a 96.8% chance of playing finals football. What those calculations don’t take into account for though is the injury to Nicho Hynes, who is expected to miss the next eight weeks. At this stage, the Sharks will have to navigate the rest of the regular season without their main man but they do enjoy a very soft run home, with the Cowboys in Round 20 and Manly in the final round their only games against teams currently in the top eight.

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DOLPHINS (22 points, +40)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing top eight: 75.4%

Chance of finishing top four: 19.8%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.6%

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Panthers (A), Titans (H), Roosters (H), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Storm (A),

Wayne Bennett’s Dolphins outfit started the year strongly but have faded in recent months, winning just once in their last five outings. Fortunately for them their form slide hasn’t left them hopelessly chasing a top eight place. However, they face one of the tougher run homes with games against the resurgent Rabbitohs, Panthers, free-scoring Roosters, Bulldogs and Melbourne Storm all waiting for the NRL’s newest side before the end of the year. It’s a tough task for Bennett’s outfit, especially considering the absence of star hooker Jeremy Marshall-King until the last few rounds of the season, but not impossible.

CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (22 points, +65)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing top eight: 74.9%

Chance of finishing top four: 16.5%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%

Remaining games:bye, Cowboys (A), Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Dolphins (H), Warriors (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H)

The Bulldogs have been one of the surprise packets of the season. The question is though, can they maintain their form over the final nine rounds. Two games against the hot-and-cold Cowboys await, but in between those, are winnable games against the Raiders, Dragons and Warriors. In fact, the 5th-placed Bulldogs don’t play a team above them on the ladder for the rest of the regular season. There is time to choke, but it appears the Bulldogs have set themselves up to make the top eight for the first time since 2016.

MANLY SEA EAGLES (21 points, +29)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing top eight: 71%

Chance of finishing top four: 15.5%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%

Remaining games: Knights (H), Titans (H), Roosters (A), bye, Raiders (A), Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)

Boasting a talented roster, most expected Manly would bounce back and play finals this season following an underwhelming 2023 campaign. So far, they’re about where most would have had them at this stage of the season. Tom Trbojevic missed five games with a hamstring injury but he’s back for Manly’s late season push. There are no easy games in the NRL, but they have a pretty favourable run home, so Manly fans should be on pretty good terms with themselves at this stage. With that said, there is still a long way to go so nothing is a given.

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (20 points, +1)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing top eight: 43.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 3.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: N/A

Remaining games:bye, Bulldogs (H), Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Raiders (H), bye, Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

North Queensland are a hard team to figure out, even this far into the season. They have a kind draw in the back end of the season, with two more byes and five games in Townsville over the remaining nine rounds, which means they are every chance to come home like a wet sail. They aren’t playing consistently well just yet but they have had some big scalps of late. They should be a team that all sides should be wary of, and if they can put it altogether, they are a premiership threat. That’s a big if though.

BRISBANE BRONCOS (18 points, +13)

Predicted finish: 9th

Chance of finishing top eight: 42.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 3.4%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Dragons (H), Knights (A), Bulldogs (H), Titans (A), Cowboys (A), bye, Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Storm (H)

The Broncos have slumped to 11th on the ladder having lost their last five games. Last year’s grand finalists have been cruelled by injuries to several stars this year, most notably halfback and captain Adam Reynolds who hasn’t played since their Round 9 loss to the Roosters after suffering a torn bicep. His expected Round 22 return can’t come quick enough with the Broncos facing four Top 8 sides heading into September. But they’d want to find their mojo quick or risk their season slipping away after a stellar 2023.

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (20 points, -43)

Predicted finish: 10th

Chance of finishing top eight: 41.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 3.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Manly (A), Broncos (H), bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H)

With Kalyn Ponga, anything’s possible. Newcastle’s star fullback returned, and excelled, in Round 18 against the Raiders. When he plays the Knights are a far tougher prospect for just about anyone. This time last year Newcastle found themselves well outside the eight but, off the back of Ponga’s electrifying form, won nine in a row to end the year fifth. In 2024, Adam O’Brien’s side’s run home includes several sides still trying to find their feet, including Brisbane and Manly, and low-ranked sides with the potential to cause them grief, like Souths and the Titans. They will need to be as good as last year, if not better, to play finals football this year, but with Ponga nothing is out of the question.

ST. GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Predicted finish: 11th

Chance of finishing top eight: 27.5%

Chance of finishing top four: 1.8%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Broncos (A), bye, Panthers (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Titans (H), Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H)

The Dragons are on the edge of the eight in a season that some had them tipped to claim the wooden spoon. They’ve improved markedly in 2024 under the guidance of new coach Shane Flanagan earning an 8-8 record to sit on equal points with the Cowboys (8th) and Knights (9th). They’ve won three of their past five games including a hard fought 22-10 Round 13 win over the Panthers. Their run home sees them face four current Top 8 sides (Panthers, Storm, Bulldogs, Sharks) with five of their final eight games to be played at home putting them in the frame to make the finals for the first time since 2018.

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SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Predicted finish: 12th

Chance of finishing top eight: 11.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.6%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (A), Sharks (A), Storm (H), Tigers (A), Knights (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (H)

Souths have been on a rampage of late winning their past five straight in a massive turnaround from their shocking start to the season in which they lost eight of their first nine games to sit last on the ladder resulting in former coach Jason Demetriou’s sacking. Everything seemed to change following the announcement of Wayne Bennett’s impending arrival, but last round’s injury to fullback Latrell Mitchell has likely shunted any hope of a late season charge to the finals.

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS

Predicted finish: 13th

Chance of finishing top eight: 7.3%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Bye, Raiders (A), Tigers (H), Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Manly (A), Bulldogs (H), Sharks (A), Bye

The Warriors haven’t lived up to this year’s lofty expectations after making last year’s preliminary final having won just seven games this season. Andrew Webster’s men have been diabolical at times in 2024 highlighted by their 66-6 Round 16 shellacking by the Titans. With two remaining byes and a relatively soft run home they are a slim chance to feature in September with games against Raiders, Tigers and Eels among their easier ahead.

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Predicted finish: 14th

Chance of finishing top eight: 5.5%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Bye, Warriors (H), Rabbitohs (H), Bulldogs (A), Manly (H), Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A)

The Raiders are struggling after losing four on the trot and face one of the hardest runs home of any team which includes games against the Rabbitohs, Bulldogs, Sea Eagles, Cowboys, Panthers and Roosters. Jamal Fogerty going down with a biceps injury in Round 7 against the Broncos has played a major factor in the Raiders’ lacklustre season. The halfback had been in great form and his expected Round 20 return (at the earliest) likely won’t be enough to get his side back in finals contention.

GOLD COAST TITANS

Predicted finish: 15th