In recent years, fantasy football has seen a drastic shift in positional value. Wide Receivers have emerged as the most coveted assets to roster, especially in half-PPR or full-PPR formats. At the same time, the running back position further depreciates with every passing season.
There are certain players, including the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, who hold unquestioned roles in their respective offenses. Regardless of matchup or game script, these WRs will unequivocally be the team’s primary pass-catcher on any given Sunday. That being said, this value is reflected in draft price. You’ll need to invest a first-round pick to acquire one of the sure-fire bets at the WR position.
Receivers who find themselves in more ambiguous target trees can be acquired for much cheaper. A key part of any fantasy manager’s offseason research should be to identify these murky situations and determine which WR is most likely to emerge as the alpha. Those who are correct in their assessment will be able to acquire great value with their later-round draft selections.
Puka Nacua‘s historic 2023 season is a great example of this. He accumulated 105 receptions and six touchdowns en route to setting the NFL record for receiving yards as a rookie. With Cooper Kupp‘s offseason injury struggles, analysts across the industry struggled with the target distribution in L.A. It was anyone’s guess as to who would inherit Kupp’s massive volume in the offense. Nacua ended up winning the positional battle against the likes of Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell, leading to league-winning fantasy production.
Below are some of the more intriguing wide receivers in NFL position battles to monitor over the remainder of the offseason.
NFL Position Battles to Monitor: Wide Receivers
Receivers who find themselves in more ambiguous target trees can be acquired for much cheaper. A key part of any fantasy manager’s offseason research should be to identify these murky situations and determine which WR is most likely to emerge as the alpha. Those who are correct in their assessment will be able to acquire great value with their later-round draft selections.
Puka Nacua‘s historic 2023 season is a great example of this. He accumulated 105 receptions and six touchdowns en route to setting the NFL record for receiving yards as a rookie. With Cooper Kupp‘s offseason injury struggles, analysts across the industry struggled with the target distribution in L.A. It was anyone’s guess as to who would inherit Kupp’s massive volume in the offense. Nacua ended up winning the positional battle against the likes of Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell, leading to league-winning fantasy production.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Calvin Ridley (TEN)
Calvin Ridley’s first season upon return from suspension was a disappointment. He was a very underwhelming fantasy asset despite being given every opportunity to succeed in Jacksonville. He was targeted 132 times as the primary pass-catcher for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
Admittedly, some of Ridley’s struggles can be attributed to simply needing to shake off rust. His 8.4% Pro Football Focus (PFF) drop rate, while higher than expected, is likely a result of spending nearly two full seasons on the sidelines. However, other aspects of his statistical profile are far more alarming. Among WRs with at least 50 targets, Ridley ranked 41st in receiving grade, 46th in yards per route run and 72nd in yards after catch per reception, per PFF. At 29 years old, it’s fair to question whether Ridley will ever return to the levels of efficiency he displayed during his tenure in Atlanta.
The 2023 season was far more kind to DeAndre Hopkins. He proved he’s still the ultra-reliable WR he’s been for nearly a decade. Among qualifying WRs, Hopkins ranked 18th in PFF receiving grade and in yards per route run. As impressive as this is, it’s also fair to question whether he’ll start to feel the effects of age and attrition in 2024.
The distinct edge Hopkins has over Ridley is the established rapport he has with QB Will Levis. In 2023, Hopkins had at least 59 targets more than every other pass-catcher on the Titans. On the other hand, Ridley’s contract would suggest the team is expecting him to be a focal point in the offense. He signed a lucrative four-year, $92 million deal in the offseason.
All things considered, Hopkins currently has slightly higher odds of being Tennessee’s WR1. He was a key pillar for this passing game in 2023 and still has plenty to offer from a production standpoint. At any rate, it’ll be key to monitor the training camp reports.
Marquise Brown vs. Xavier Worthy (KC)
The reigning Super Bowl champs were quite mediocre on the offensive side of the ball in 2024. Despite boasting an impressive group of offensive pieces, they struggled to put up points at the same rate as years prior. What truly held this team back was its inability to push the ball downfield. The likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson simply weren’t able to stretch the field consistently. As a result, the overall offense became predictable as teams started to key in on the short passing game with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. To this end, the Chiefs invested in Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy in the offseason.
Across his injury-riddled career, Brown has struggled to maintain any form of consistency. He’s yet to surpass a PFF receiving grade of 71.0. This is despite being the main target of offenses led by Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. 2023 was a particularly underwhelming season for Brown. Among WRs with at least 50 targets, he ranked 57th in receiving grade and 61st in yards per route run (PFF). Heading into his sixth season in the NFL, time is running out for Brown to finally put it all together.
The Chiefs’ selection of Xavier Worthy addressed the need for deep threats in this offense. He excelled in this role during his final collegiate season. According to PFF, he earned a receiving grade of 87.5 when being targeted 20+ yards downfield. His career tallies of 7.0 yards after catch per reception and 14.0 yards per reception illustrate how explosive Worthy can be in this Mahomes-led offense.
This is likely a scenario where Worthy will have to wait a few months before being employed as a full-time starter. Rookie WRs typically take about half a season to acclimate to the NFL. Based on Worthy’s statistical profile, he’ll be able to usurp Brown as the Chiefs’ primary deep threat across the course of the season.
Tyler Lockett vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)
Much has been said about the Seahawks’ appointment of OC Ryan Grubb. The latter enjoyed much success as a play-caller for the Washington Huskies. Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk all produced at a high level in Grubb’s system. Many will draw comparisons to Seattle’s current trifecta of WRs: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Metcalf’s role is set in stone. He is the “X” receiver who will be tasked with producing big gains downfield. His 2023 average depth of target (aDOT) of 14.1 yards, per PFF, is indicative of this. The true competition lies between Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Who will emerge as the primary possession receiver on this team?
Smith-Njigba’s rookie metrics left much to be desired. Per PFF, he earned a 63.9 receiving grade and averaged 1.32 yards per route run. To be fair, much of this lack of production can be attributed to Geno Smith‘s struggles. What’s more, Pete Carroll’s run-heavy scheme limited his opportunities to make an impact.
On the other hand, Tyler Lockett doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of aging. His 2023 metrics are in line with his career averages. According to PFF, he produced 1.61 yards per route run and earned a receiving grade of 77.6. The veteran also signed a two-year, $30 million extension with the team this offseason. This financial investment suggests the Seahawks intend on featuring Tyler Lockett heavily in the offense in 2o24.
All in all, this role remains Lockett’s to lose. Assuming his efficiency and production don’t fall off abruptly, Smith-Njigba will once again operate as the WR3 in this offense. It’s likely a year too early to invest in the former Ohio State standout.
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