The Grafton Carnival continues on Wednesday for Ramornie Handicap Day. Weather is fine, track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (12:29) Group 1 Horse Feeds Rural Plate (C6) 2200m
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1 Gulf Of Tomini (Bet Now: $6.50) should prove hard to beat for Kristen Buchanan. This gelding ran in the Cup Prelude at this track/distance where he had a decent run in transit after doing work. He was entitled to knock right up but he stuck on and was good in defeat behind Full Press. He’s been up a while but for mine, is flying and good enough to take this out.
Danger
2 Holstein (Bet Now: $2.15) is unknown at the trip but on a firmer deck, I think he can run an improved race. Strong winner at Canterbury two back before racing at Rosehill where the track was too wet and he couldn’t pick his feet up late in the piece behind Amberite. If the trip is okay, his best is more than good enough.
Long Shot
7 Muleta (Bet Now: $26.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Adrian Corboy, he resumed for Jeremy Sylvester over 2100m at Tamworth where he gave them a start and a beating, and was quite impressive the way he put them away late in the piece. Harder here, but he has enormous upside and the stable loves to target Carnivals.
Race 2. (13:04) Crown Hotel Motel Mdn Plate 1000m
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12 Jumbled (Bet Now: $5.50) gets the nod for me here. Tony Newing trained juvenile that takes on the older horses. He debuted over this track/distance when on speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite finish the job when third to Aquafire, who will go around on Thursday in the 2YO as a leading chance, so I am tipping that form to be strong. He’ll press forward from the wide gate and be hard to get past.
Danger
7 Brisket (Bet Now: $13.00) has had a couple of runs for John Shelton and looks hard to beat on the home deck. This filly raced at Ballina last time when tucked in behind the speed before edging into clear air and looked the winner when she let down but just couldn’t quite see it through and was nabbed near the peg. Better for the runs, maps perfect, home track advantage…hard to beat.
Long Shot
2 Daimyo (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Dwayne Schmidt trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Feb 6 over 1100m here when back off the speed and failed to make up any real ground late in the piece behind Super Jaie. Has run well at the track/distance previously so I think watch the market and see what it does.
Race 3. (13:39) Newing Racing & S J Racing Super Mdn Plate 1700m
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11 Miss Dynamo (Bet Now: $2.25) looks the first of two good things of the Carnival. Billy Healey trains this filly and she has done a really good job in two career runs, really catching the eye on debut at the Sunny Coast before going to Eagle Farm and the mile where she was nearer the inside and drove hard, but just missed out on the win. Miles back in depth, maps perfect, Dolan sticks…keen.
Danger
12 Shine Like It Does (Bet Now: $14.00) is an improving type back to Country grade. Her three career outings have come in strong Provincial maidens, her last two at Kembla where she has been far from disgraced for the most part. Like her back to this level and with luck from the tricky gate, I think she’ll be around the mark.
Long Shot
5 More Elements (Bet Now: $8.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but he hasn’t been too far away. Just got stuck wide at this track/distance last time and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off, running fourth. Maps to get a much better run in transit and does get a significant jockey upgrade.
Race 4. (14:14) Fidelity Capital Hcp (C2) 1100m
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1 Town Crier (Bet Now: $3.10) on top. The O’Dea/Hoysted camp are lethal when they hop the border and come to Grafton. They have this gelding lining up off the back of a dominant win at Dalby. He had the suck run in transit behind the speed before angling clear and made a mess of them late in the piece. He looks to have come back in good order and for mine, takes beating here.
Danger
8 The Lion’s Gate (Bet Now: $13.00) will love finding firmer footing. Matty Dunn trained gelding that has found heavy tracks in both runs this time in, leading and tiring late fresh at Murwillumbah when third before going to Ipswich where he struggled in the conditions. Maps perfect here and on a track with less cushion, he’s dangerous.
Long Shot
12 Single Attraction (Bet Now: $16.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but does command respect I say. She resumed in a pretty thin race at Gundagai but the arrogance of the win was something else, the way she gave them a start and a beating, with change up speed, was impressive. Much harder here but think she can measure up.
Race 5. (14:49) Winning Edge Presentations Hcp (C2) 1600m
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1 Barazin (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a great bet here. Kris Lees trained import that has been solid in two runs down under, the latest over the mile at Wyong where you could make a case he should have gone close to winning had he got clear air at the time that Gibbons was probing. I think he’ll love getting to the bigger track and with the claim, I like him a lot here.
Danger
3 Twin Turbo (Bet Now: $4.80) is knocking on the door to win again. Ed O’Rourke trained gelding that has placed his past three, runner up his past two. The last two runs have come over the mile at Hawkesbury, the latest when attempting to lead throughout and gave a good sight but just felt the pinch late behind Fifth Force. Lands on speed and finds a thin race overall. The only threat.
Long Shot
5 Externus (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Pariah for Damien Lane that attempted to lead throughout in the race mentioned above that Barazin contested. He gave a very strong kick from the front but couldn’t quite see it through when second to Aix En Provence. Good racing style, and if this track is playing up/in, he’s dangerous.
Race 6. (15:24) Grafton Guineas 1600m
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3 Tiger Town (Bet Now: $7.50) is several weeks between runs for Greg Hickman since racing over 1400m at Rosehill where he struggled on the bog track but that said, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind a nice horse, Captain Furai. Firmer footing will help his cause and overall, I don’t think this is an overly deep race.
Danger
5 Toes In The Water (Bet Now: $5.50) is a filly for Nick Olive that is in ripping form and should take beating here. She has won two on the bounce, the latest being a Highway win over 1500m at Rosehill when leading throughout and was quite dominant in the run to the line. That form surely has to read well for a race like this.
Long Shot
4 Change The Date (Bet Now: $9.50) is flying for Brett Bellamy and commands respect. He has won his past three, winning two at Taree before going to the Guineas Prelude here when leading throughout and credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Harder here, but think he can measure up.
Race 7. (15:59) Ramornie Hcp 1200m
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3 Pereille… (Bet Now: $2.10) less said about the Hinkler the better. He should have bolted in but J Mac didn’t give him the best of steers and it ended up being a horrendous watch, flashing late when a narrow second to Willinga Beast. That run wasn’t hard given how much of the straight he was held up so he has to surely take beating against these, especially of a sizzling tick over trial at Hawkesbury last week. Good thing of the Carnival.
Danger
16 Cecil Street Lad (Bet Now: $46.00) is a Kristen Buchanan trained gelding that comes here off the back of a win in the Prelude where he got a suck run near the speed before angling into clear air and let down with purpose late to get the win in good style. Not sure he’s good enough to win this but he could pinch a first four spot at a price.
Long Shot
Giving respect to 13 Lavish Empire (Bet Now: $14.00). This is a tough ask first up given his rating and overall form, but he looks to be humming for Team Snowden. He is a good fresh horse and gee his trial win at Randwick was one of the more impressive efforts of the morning. First up here is clear intent for mine. Just needs luck from the gate.
Race 8. (16:34) Grafton Taxis (Bm58) 1400m
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2 Gobbled (Bet Now: $13.00) is a key threat. Brett Dodson trained gelding that ran at Taree last time when near the speed throughout and looked to be a winning threat in the straight but he couldn’t quite see it through when third to Mosgiel Daisy. He has run well at this track/distance previously, good racing style, leading contender.
Danger
1 Draft Day (Bet Now: $9.00) is one I can entertain as a key threat. Ethan Ensby trained gelding that resumed at Ballina when getting a suck run just behind the speed and he tried hard but being first up, condition just gave way late in the piece behind Tectonic Plate. Fitter, firmer deck, he can run an improved race.
Long Shot
6 Xtra Approval (Bet Now: $61.00) hasn’t set the world on fire this time in for Tony Ball but I do think his best is more than good enough to give this a shake. He has been plagued by bog tracks this time in, the latest run at Taree where he got back on a day up/in was dynamite, so forget he went around. Hopefully firmer footing, fairer track, he can take this out.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Pereille
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 11 Miss Dynamo
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Gobbled
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5
Leg Three: 3
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13
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