The 2024 British Open has arrived, and the fourth major of the season is packed with storylines and an elite field as the week kicks off at Royal Troon. Here to break it down we have once again convened a panel of Sports Illustrated golf writers and editors: Bob Harig, John Schwarb and Jeff Ritter, along with Iain MacMillan, a betting expert from our partners at FanSided. And for even more firepower, we have again added two heavy hitters from Rotowire’s fantasy golf and gambling coverage: Len Hochberg and Greg Vara. Onto Troon.
Like the previous three majors, Scottie Scheffler enters the week as the clear favorite. He’s at +450 on DraftKings. Rory McIlroy (+700) is the second choice, followed by Xander Schauffele (+1100), Ludvig Aberg (+1200) and Bryson DeChambeau (+1400). Do the books have the right top five?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: Hard to argue with that lineup and that order. We’d be quibbling. Scheffler is undoubtedly the favorite, even if he has no experience at the course. He’s coming off a victory in his last start. Skipped the Scottish Open to be better prepared. The other major winners along with a couple of excellent iron plays makes perfect sense.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: I think that’s how it has to go. You could nitpick with the numbers. The order is correct.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I will quibble slightly and say that I’d have Bryson as my second choice and Schauffele No. 3, with Rory fourth. McIlroy could absolutely win this week and end his drought, but with all that fresh scar tissue I’m a little more leery than the bookmakers.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Yes, it’s smart bookmaking. Aberg doesn’t have a major yet so I’d want more than 12 to 1, but if he was 30 to 1 DraftKings would run the risk of getting crushed. The book will make a mint on sentimental Rory bets and those who think Bryson will go back-to-back.
Greg Vara, Rotowire: I think that’s about right. If you look immediately below these six, what you have are either guys that haven’t haven’t won a major (Hatton and Fleetwood) or ones that aren’t in good form this year, like Rahm and Hovland. Everyone in the top 5 has shown some good form at the majors this season and with the exception of Aberg, they’ve already won at least one major.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I agree with the top four the oddsmakers have set, but I’d sneak Collin Morikawa in there as a fifth option. He’s a former winner of the Open and he’s been playing some extremely good golf of late. Don’t be shocked if we see him in contention on Sunday once again.
We’ve spent a lot of time discussing Scheffler in these betting previews, but McIlroy may enter as the biggest story, as he makes his major return after a Pinehurst U.S. Open that will go down as an all-time major heartbreak. How are you betting McIlroy this week?
Bob Harig, SI Golf: His chances are no worse for having fallen at Pinehurst. McIlroy has fallen before and dusted himself off, got up and fought again. He will do that this time. Will he win? Maybe not. But McIlroy has been playing well for the better part of three months. It’s logical that will continue.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: These two weeks—Scottish Open, Open Championship – provided the softest possible landing for McIlroy after the Pinehurst disaster. We already saw at the Scottish that his golf game is fine. At the Open, we’ll get a truer sense of his psyche if contending late on Sunday at a major. I think he can win. But at +700? Nah.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: I’m sure Rory will rebound from Pinehurst and continue to play at an elite level, and one day he’ll snag major title No. 5. But when it comes to my wallet, I can’t ignore his major-championship drought that becomes more vexing with each passing season. I’m willing to be too late rather than too early on his next major win. I’m targeting other players this week.
John Schwarb, SI Golf: I have not put one cent on him to win while the majors drought has taken on a life of its own and certainly won’t start now. If he makes the cut but is well down the leaderboard, I’d consider a live bet for him play stress-free over the weekend and get a backdoor top 10.
Greg Vara, Rotowire: I wish we could get some longer odds to win on McIlroy as I do think he has a good chance to break his major drought this week, but 7-1 is still a bit light when you consider he has to beat Scheffler to cash, not to mention the demons he must overcome down the stretch. Perhaps a top-5 bet at plus money (+175) is the way to go as he’s sure to be in the mix come the weekend, but whether he can close or not is the question.
Iain MacMillan, SI Betting: I decided a few years back that Rory McIlroy will win another major in his career, but when he does, I won’t have any money on him. Cheering for him on the weekends at major tournaments is a roller coaster of emotions and my strategy of staying away from betting on him proved fruitful at the U.S. Open. When he wins one, I’ll be happy for him, but I’m done risking my own money on him.
This will be Troon’s 10th Open, and the last featured an epic final-round duel between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson. What player profile are you looking for when setting your lineups and making your wagers this week?
Bob Harig: The best players typically excel no matter the venue. Mickelson and Stenson were not exactly outliers eight years ago, although they blew everyone else in the field away. Sticking with the best of the best makes sense here.
John Schwarb: I think this is the hardest major to bet by far. The Open is all about weird bounces and unpredictable weather, and like most of my colleagues here I’d consider ball-striking excellence and form this week, but then again: Brian Harman. This is a week where I won’t look much at pre-flop betting but instead will study come Friday night with two rounds in the books.
Len Hochberg: Ball-striking is my first thought. Stenson brilliantly 3-wooded his way around Troon for four days. Staying out of trouble off the tee sets up everything else. But if you can’t scramble around those green complexes, you ain’t winning.
Iain MacMillan: Ball striking and short game is what I’m going to value the most this week. I know that seems obvious, but that’s going to run true for virtually every single major. One type of golfer I won’t be betting on is those who try to bomb and gauge courses. That strategy doesn’t work on these types of courses, which is why we see golfers like Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, and Henrik Stenson win Open Championships.
Greg Vara: There really isn’t a specific profile that I’m looking for at any major outside of mental toughness. As is the case during most majors, the guy’s that are locked in are going to be at the top. It could be good ball strikers or great putters, but no matter their main asset, you can be assured that all parts of their games are working when in contention at a major.
Jeff Ritter: Mickelson and Stenson just decimated the place eight years ago, and the way players score these days, my hunch is the first player to 20 under is going to win this thing. For a course fit, I’m looking for an elite player who is trending well, with a little extra attention on iron play and strokes gained around the green.
The Open is the season’s last chance for a major-less player to remove himself from the Best Without a Major list. Xander Schauffele extracted himself from the list at Valhalla. Who has the best chance to do it at Troon?
Bob Harig: Patrick Cantlay. He finally got himself deep in the mix at a major last month at the U.S. Open. The hope is that the injury issue that knocked him out of the John Deere was more of a precautionary move.
John Schwarb: Ludvig Aberg. I’m not fazed by his poor Sunday at the Scottish, I prefer to look at his first three rounds and I see a young star ready for a big-time breakthrough.
Iain MacMillan: He hasn’t exactly played his best golf of late, but I’m still going to go with Viktor Hovland. When his ball striking is on, he’s one of the best golfers in the world and he has already shown he can compete at Open Championships, finishing T13 in better each of his three appearances including a T4 finish in 2022. The form isn’t there, but if he can figure something out this week, watch out.
Len Hochberg: Tommy Fleetwood. It seems as if he’s gonna win anywhere on the PGA Tour, it’s here. He plays consistently better here than any other tournament—top 12 in four of the past five Opens.
Jeff Ritter: It feels like Viktor Hovland has risen to the top of the Best Without List. But his game currently seems too erratic to expect four big rounds in a row. (Again, gotta get to 20 under this week) I think Ludvig Aberg, who has been steady and has flashed in the majors and contended elsewhere, including last weekend, might be the best pick among those seeking their first title.
Greg Vara: My first thought was Aberg, but I don’t like the way he finished at the U.S. Open and I certainly don’t like the way he closed this past week in Scotland, so maybe he’s not ready. Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland seem to be good candidates, although Hovland hasn’t really shown much in 2024, outside of a nice run at the PGA Championship. I’ll go with Fleetwood, who has played well on Open Championship courses over the past five years.
Golf’s majors offer prop bet opportunities galore. What’s one off-the-radar prop you like this week?
Bob Harig: Someone will make a hole in one at the postage stamp, the Par-3 eighth hole that measures just 123 yards on the scorecard.
John Schwarb: How about betting on a playoff? Feels like we’ve been dodging them in recent majors so we’re due. It’s a good bet for pizza money.
Len Hochberg: Not sure how proppy this is, but I wanted to mention Tom McKibbin. Because we’re gonna be hearing about him. He’s 21, from Northern Ireland. He’s already won on the DP World Tour and almost won again a couple of weeks ago. He’s +15000 to win this week. He won’t win, but I’d bet him to make the cut, like he did in his first career major last month at the U.S. Open..
Jeff Ritter: Betting on an anytime ace is always fun, especially during Open week. And it’s just a hunch, but give me Aberg as the Round 1 leader.
Greg Vara: I always like playing the cut-line props as it puts an added importance on the early rounds. The forecast looks fairly tame on Thursday and Friday, and I don’t have a number yet, but when the number does come out, I’d look to play the under on the cutline. For reference, the cut was +6 or 146 strokes in 2016, but the weather on Friday was rough. If the line is in that range, I’m definitely going under.
Iain MacMillan: Give me Phil Mickelson to make the cut. He returns to the site of the 2016 Open where he and Henrik Stenson had a battle of the ages. Lefty eventually fell short, but this should be a course that gives him a ton of confidence to play at. He’s also fresh off a solid T27 finish at last week’s LIV event. Will he contend? Absolutely not. Will he make the cut? I think it’s worth a bet.
Give us one long shot, odds 60-1 or greater, who could surprise, and give us one sentence why.
Bob Harig: Justin Rose. Give the man credit for going through qualifying to make the field. Rose has been there and done that and could have easily passed on that 36-hole test, but he made it through and genuinely seemed stoked to do so. He’s got plenty of experience around links courses, too.
Jeff Ritter: Davis Thompson is a newly minted PGA Tour winner who’s playing the best golf of his life, yet somehow enters as a 100-1 shot on DraftKings. I like him for a top 15 and maybe more.
John Schwarb: I’ve touted Russell Henley (100-1) already this year for this question and how’s this for his 2024 majors scorecard: T38 Masters, T23 PGA, T7 U.S. Open.
Len Hochberg: Would Brian Harman (60-1 on DraftKings) count as a surprise by playing well again? I think people would be surprised. But he’s seemingly figured this Open thing out. He was T6 the year before he won.
Greg Vara: Adam Scott’s (60-1) odds will likely shrink after his runner-up in Scotland, but he’s got to be feeling pretty confident heading into this week and he did get four rounds in on this course in 2016.
Iain MacMillan: I’ve said this name once before but I’m going to say it again; Alex Noren (120-1). I may have been early touting him, but I wasn’t wrong. He’s 13th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season, is coming off a T10 finish at the Scottish Open, and has had some solid success at the Open Championship in years past. He finished T9 in 2012, T6 in 2017 and T11 in 2019. He’s worth a sprinkle at his current odds.
There can only be one: who lifts the trophy on Sunday and why?
Bob Harig: Bryson DeChambeau. The American streak stays alive in the majors and Bryson goes back to back. His record isn’t great at the Open but he did tie for eighth two years ago at St. Andrews when he was not at his best. There’s plenty of reason to believe he will be there again.
John Schwarb: As mentioned previously, Ludvig Aberg is on the best-without-a-major list, which is remarkable for a 24-year-old. But he’s that talented, with a demeanor perfect for majors as we saw with his runner-up at the Masters—his very first major. In his fourth major this week, he gets a win.
Len Hochberg: This course favors the longest and straight drivers. That sounds like Ludvig Aberg. And Rory McIlroy. I can pick only one? Okay, I’ll be that guy: McIlroy.
Greg Vara: I am in the camp that believes that missed opportunities leave scar tissue, but at the same time, I think Rory McIlroy comes into this major with more motivation than ever and perhaps more confidence than he’s had in a while. Yes, he blew a great chance at the U.S. Open, but he held strong for almost the entire round. I think he holds strong all the way through this time.
Jeff Ritter: This year Collin Morikawa played in the final group at the Masters and the PGA with nothing to show for it. He’ll need a good putting week, but Troon’s greens are relatively benign, which means we’re in for a ball-striker’s paradise—his M.O. I think this is the week he bags his third career major.
Iain MacMillan: I’m going to go with Collin Morikawa. He is the perfect mix of a guy who has played well in Majors this season, has recently won an Open Championship, and has been playing some fantastic golf of late. He has finished inside the top five in four of his last six starts including a T4 finish at last week’s Scottish Open. As long as he can bring his “A” game on Sunday, I think he wins this week.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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