Every AFL contender’s critical fixtures revealed as final awaits fallen giant

With six rounds remaining in the 2024 home-and-away season, the tightest finals race in 27 years beckons.

Incredibly, after Round 18, just two wins separate second-placed Carlton and 13th-placed Hawthorn.

Collingwood’s plight continues amid sudden doubts about the Blues, while Sydney and Brisbane have remained the most consistent recent performers.

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Speaking on Fox Footy’s First Crack, St Kilda great Leigh Montagna expressed his view on the way the ladder was panning out.

“Some mixed results, but we’re none the wiser (about the ladder),” he said. “I thought we were starting to get there, but not quite.

“I don’t think we’re too far away from having — maybe — a top eight. There might be one change.

“Brisbane were the big winners today; they jump into the top four. That might have crept up on a few, from where they’ve come from — they were seventh coming into the round. They are now sitting pretty in the top four.”

Two-time North Melbourne premiership player David King placed an emphasis on the discrepancy between contenders’ best and worst form this year.

“I think you look at the top eight there, and even the top dozen, and it’s a gap year this year. The gap between teams’ best and worst are poles apart, and we can have them one week to the next,” he told First Crack.

“You look at Port Adelaide last week. Looked like world-beaters (against the Western Bulldogs). Awful (against Gold Coast). The Dogs the reverse (after beating Carlton).

“You look at Carlton and what’s happened to them, three weeks ago versus what we’re seeing now. Brisbane and Sydney are the only two that have been solid and consistent for five, six, seven weeks.”

King doubted the chances of a side placed outside the top four tasting premiership success.

“In my opinion, when you see these sorts of fluctuations, it’s going to be impossible to come from fifth-to-eighth to win the flag,” he said.

“You’re not going to be able to win four finals in a row against these good sides, because we’re not seeing teams do that now.

“Against the best teams, we haven’t had — outside of Sydney — anyone win four-plus games against the good teams in a row. Why wouldn’t it (hold true come finals time)?”

All that being said, and via analysis from foxfooty.com.au’s The Run Home, these are the 13 finals contenders’ defining fixtures as an all-time race to September heats up.

SYDNEY SWANS

1st, 14-3 (56 pts), 145.3%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Brisbane Lions (The Gabba).

– Round 22 vs. Collingwood (SCG).

– Round 23 vs. Essendon (Marvel Stadium).

Three more wins guarantees Sydney the minor premiership, with its outstanding percentage essentially an impossibility to be chased down. An intriguing clash awaits in Brisbane this Sunday, before closing matchups against Collingwood and Essendon that will be crucial in deciding the Magpies and Bombers’ fates. The Swans also host the Bulldogs (Round 20), travel to play Port Adelaide (Round 21) and host Adelaide on the final weekend of the regular season. All in all, though, Sydney doesn’t have many ‘defining’ fixtures, as its tremendous efforts to this point in the year have cemented its standing as the undisputed premiership favourite. The Run Home predicts 17.9 wins and a first-placed finish for John Longmire’s men.

CARLTON

2nd, 11-6 (44 pts), 114.1%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 20 vs. Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 21 vs. Collingwood (MCG).

– Round 22 vs. Hawthorn (MCG).

Carlton’s top-four certainty is suddenly in question, following a pair of defensively questionable losses against GWS and the Western Bulldogs. Just four points and percentage ahead of ninth-placed Port Adelaide going into this weekend, the Blues need at least two more wins to reach 13 and guarantee a September berth — and pending upcoming meetings with North Melbourne, West Coast and St Kilda, that appears a surety. In terms of the typically-required 15 wins for a top-four seed, Carlton would also likely need to win at least one of the above listed fixtures. At the present time, considering Hawthorn’s blistering form and Port Adelaide’s strong Marvel Stadium record, the Magpies seem the most vulnerable of the three — but the Blues could easily win all as they aim to lock up second spot. The Run Home is currently hinting at a second-place finish, predicting 15.25 wins.

GEELONG

3rd, 11-6 (44 pts), 110.6%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Western Bulldogs (GMHBA Stadium).

– Round 22 vs. Fremantle (Optus Stadium).

– Round 23 vs. St Kilda (Marvel Stadium).

The Cats have overcome a worrying form slump to win their past three games against solid opposition, and their closing stretch of fixtures is among the most favourable of the 13 contenders. Their other three remaining matchups not listed above come against North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena; Round 20), Adelaide (GMHBA Stadium; Round 21) and West Coast (Round 24; GMHBA Stadium) — all but pencilled in as wins. Three-to-four more victories likely clinches a top-four spot for Geelong, with at least one win needed from the above list to make it happen — assuming it topples the Roos, Crows and Eagles. The Run Homehas the Cats retaining third spot until the end of the home-and-away campaign, with 14.6 wins.

BRISBANE LIONS

4th, 10-6-1 (42 pts), 120.0%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Sydney Swans (The Gabba).

– Round 20 vs. Gold Coast Suns (People First Stadium).

– Round 23 vs. Collingwood (MCG).

– Round 24 vs. Essendon (The Gabba).

Alongside Sydney, the Lions have probably been the competition’s most consistent side over the course of the past two months, winning seven of their past eight matches to suddenly be in the box seat to earn an improbable top-four berth. Speaking of the Swans, an enticing clash awaits this Sunday afternoon at The Gabba — we may get a true sense of the Lions’ flag credentials. And are Chris Fagan’s men set to snap the Suns’ home winning streak? Bar last season’s meeting at the venue, Brisbane won the clubs’ previous five Carrara meetings. An MCG date with Collingwood is likely to define the Pies’ fate and also shape where the Lions finish, while a closing fixture against the rising Bombers — who could also be playing for a finals berth — is of high importance. We’re tentatively pencilling in wins for the Lions against the Saints (Marvel Stadium; Round 21) and Giants (The Gabba; Round 22), potentially putting them at 12.5 wins and probably needing one more from the above list to cement a finals berth. The Run Homepredicts 14.0 wins and a fifth-placed finish.

FREMANTLE

5th, 10-6-1 (42 pts), 113.1%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Melbourne (Optus Stadium).

– Round 21 vs. Essendon (MCG).

– Round 22 vs. Geelong (Optus Stadium).

– Round 23 vs. GWS (ENGIE Stadium).

– Round 24 vs. Port Adelaide (Optus Stadium).

Something would have to go pretty wrong for Fremantle to miss the top eight from here, with as little as two wins from its last six games enough to play finals. In saying that, none of their final six fixtures are ‘locks’, given the fact the Dockers lost their last derby to West Coast in Round 6. This Sunday will be just the second time the Dockers have played the Demons at Optus Stadium, and a win against them will have Freo fans to eyeing a the top-four seed — The Run Home has them finishing fourth, just. A loss, however, leaves them vulnerable to the Eagles the week after in a fixture where the sides’ ladder positions aren’t always indicative of the final result. From there, the Dockers will test themselves against four other finals hopefuls leading into September. But for now, a win this weekend against Melbourne should — with all other things being equal — see them with one foot set in the top eight.

ESSENDON

6th, 10-6-1 (42 pts), 98.8%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 21 vs. Fremantle (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 22 vs. Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 23 vs. Sydney (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 24 vs. Brisbane (The Gabba).

Assuming they get over the top of Adelaide this Friday and St Kilda in Round 20 — both at Marvel Stadium, where the Bombers are 22-7 since the start of 2020 — the closing month is set to be the most defining. The importance of their fixtures against the Crows and Saints shouldn’t be understated, but their final four opponents pose the biggest collective obstacle to the club’s chances of qualifying for the finals, let alone securing a top-four seed. Playing three interstate teams in Melbourne is certainly a massive advantage and will have them more confident than they otherwise would be playing sides like Fremantle and Sydney away from home. The Run Home is currently predicting 13.4 wins and a sixth-placed outcome for Essendon, who still need two wins to reach a 12.5 total and three to make absolutely certain of its finals place.

GWS GIANTS

7th, 10-7 (40 pts), 109.8%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 20 vs. Melbourne (MCG).

– Round 21 vs. Hawthorn (UNSW Canberra Oval).

– Round 22 vs. Brisbane (The Gabba).

– Round 23 vs. Fremantle (ENGIE Stadium).

– Round 24 vs. Western Bulldogs (Mars Stadium).

Obviously, all of GWS’ remaining fixtures are of the utmost importance, but considering Gold Coast’s form away from home venues this season, we’ve left the Giants’ meeting with the Suns at UNSW Canberra Oval off this list. Should they beat the Suns as expected, the Suns should only need to win two of their final five games, but they would want to make it three to be safe. Brisbane will be tough in Round 22, but the other four are more or less 50-50 games that are definitely winnable. The Run Home has the Giants down for 12.95 wins in seventh spot; which if last year is anything to go by is no issue, considering they got within a point of forcing extra time in a preliminary final.

MELBOURNE

8th, 10-7 (40 pts), 105.5%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Fremantle (Optus Stadium).

– Round 20 vs. GWS (MCG).

– Round 21 vs. Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 22 vs. Port Adelaide (MCG).

– Round 24 vs. Collingwood (MCG).

Very simply put, if the Demons find their best form again they could win all five of the above fixtures. Conversely, though, there’s also a world where they lose almost all of them. They have their biggest test for the rest of the home-and-away season this weekend in Perth against Fremantle, which they won’t be favourites to win. Matches against GWS and Port at the ‘G are the two they almost certainly have to win, which then leaves one more win needed against either the Dogs or Collingwood to — likely — finish in the top eight. The Run Home predicts 12.7 wins for the Demons, which would leave them an excruciating 0.05 games outside the top eight behind the Western Bulldogs in ninth place, based on its current projection.

PORT ADELAIDE

9th, 10-7 (40 pts), 103.4%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 20 vs. Carlton (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 21 vs. Sydney Swans (Adelaide Oval).

– Round 22 vs. Melbourne (MCG).

– Round 23 vs. Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval).

– Round 24 vs. Fremantle (Optus Stadium).

Port Adelaide’s fixture is certainly one of the hardest among the sides still in the finals hunt, with a whopping five of its last six games seen as critical to playing in September. Incredibly, the Power have won 10 of their past 11 games at Marvel Stadium, with their sole loss coming against a building Carlton outfit last year. This Saturday night’s bout with the Blues isn’t one they’ll go into as favourites, but a win here will ease a lot of pressure. They’re expected — but by no means guaranteed — to beat Melbourne at the MCG and Adelaide in the Round 23 showdown. Three victories from their final six gets them there, though The Run Home presently predicts a 12.65-win outcome — falling agonisingly short. Their season hangs right in the balance.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

10th, 9-8 (36 pts), 114.9%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Geelong (GMHBA Stadium).

– Round 20 vs. Sydney Swans (SCG).

– Round 21 vs. Melbourne (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 22 vs. Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval).

– Round 24 vs. GWS Giants (Mars Stadium).

After their crushing at the hands of Port Adelaide almost a fortnight ago, toppling Carlton last Saturday was a massive step in the right direction for the Western Bulldogs, whose finals charge appears recalibrated. As is also the case with the three other sides currently on 36 points — Gold Coast, Collingwood and Hawthorn — the Bulldogs need to manage at least four wins from their final six fixtures to guarantee a spot in September. Aside from perhaps a Round 23 meeting with North Melbourne, none of these fixtures should be pencilled in for wins. It would take herculean efforts to top the Cats or Swans away from home, meaning, in all likelihood, it will come down to the month of games to determine their finals status. The Run Home currently projects 12.75 wins for the Dogs, which might well be enough to stamp their ticket — a 12-10-1 record was enough for eighth-placed Sydney last season.

GOLD COAST SUNS

11th, 9-8 (36 pts), 106.0%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. GWS (ENGIE Stadium).

– Round 20 vs. Brisbane (People First Stadium).

– Round 21 vs. West Coast (Optus Stadium).

– Round 22 vs. Essendon (Marvel Stadium).

– Round 23 vs. Melbourne (People First Stadium).

– Round 24 vs. Richmond (MCG).

It shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone, but every game for Gold Coast — particularly those away from Carrara — is a defining fixture. The club’s deplorable road record this season places an added emphasis on matches against West Coast at Optus and Richmond at the MCG — games that should be classed as wins, but given they succumbed to the Roos on the road, nothing is more than a 50-50 chance. Brisbane could well be the first team to knock them off at home next Saturday in the ‘Pineapple Grapple’, while history suggests that they won’t win against the Giants in Sydney this weekend. Until they win away or lose at home, it’s the same old story for the Suns. An upset of GWS this weekend would certainly cultivate a different narrative for Damien Hardwick’s brigade! The Run Home currently projects 12 wins for Damien Hardwick’s side in 12th place.

COLLINGWOOD

12th, 8-7-2 (36 pts), 102.9%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Hawthorn (MCG).

– Round 21 vs. Carlton (MCG).

– Round 22 vs. Sydney Swans (SCG).

– Round 23 vs. Brisbane Lions (MCG).

– Round 24 vs. Melbourne (MCG).

It’s almost panic stations for the reigning premiers. The Magpies were a top-four side as recently as Round 15, but now they sit outside the top-10 completely and are sitting very precariously. As is also the case for their opponents, this Saturday’s clash with Hawthorn at the MCG is do-or-die for Craig McRae’s men. If Collingwood can topple the Hawks, a Round 20 meeting with Richmond is one we’re pencilling in as a win. Then, a daunting final month of fixtures awaits. Assuming the Pies defeat the Hawks and Tigers — and with their pair of draws effectively culminating a win — they need to win two games from those final four games. A scalp at the SCG is unlikely, so they probably have to claim two victories from meetings with the Blues, Lions and Demons. In all likelihood, Collingwood’s 2024 fate will rest on the result of its season-finale clash with Melbourne. The Run Home predicts 11.95 wins and the Pies dropping to 13th on the ladder; a monumental fall from grace after last year’s premiership.

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HAWTHORN

13th, 9-8 (36 pts), 95.4%

Defining fixtures:

– Round 19 vs. Collingwood (MCG).

– Round 20 vs. Adelaide (Adelaide Oval).

– Round 21 vs. GWS (UNSW Canberra Oval).

– Round 22 vs. Carlton (MCG).

Without stating the obvious, Hawthorn’s next month will define whether or not it plays in September this year. Carefully predicting two likely victories against Richmond (Round 23) and North Melbourne (Round 24) to close out the year, the Hawks need to win at least two — to achieve the magic number 13 — if not three of their next four games to put themselves in the box seat. The Magpies were vulnerable at Gather Round and have again tapered in form in the past fortnight, while the Crows are certainly gettable in Adelaide — albeit certainly not a lock. In fact, Hawthorn’s meeting with Collingwood is essentially an elimination final for both sides, with a loss detrimental to their hopes with five games left beyond this Saturday evening. The Giants and Carlton games aren’t unwinnable, but they’ll go in as underdogs regardless of how these next two weeks play out. Given their percentage, it looks a really tough, uphill battle to play in September — but they’ve proven pundits wrong before this year, so why not again? The Run Home predicts 12.2 wins for the Hawks, which does bump them up a spot on the ladder, but won’t be enough to see them play finals.