There were six quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. That means 19 percent of the teams are in transition at the league’s most important position.
From the early offseason news out of rookie minicamps and OTAs, only one of those QBs has been named a surefire starter for Week 1 (and presumably beyond): Caleb Williams. The Bears wasted no time declaring the No. 1 overall pick from USC won’t be facing any training camp competition and will be the new leader of Chicago’s offense.
Williams is a generational talent, and in recent seasons, such high-drafted passers don’t tend to sit and wait for their shot, as teams want to take full advantage of their rookie contracts right away. As for the five quarterbacks taken behind him from No. 2 to No. 12 overall, there is still varied uncertainty about their respective depth chart statuses.
Although no QBs were drafted on Day 2, some intriguing names went on Day 3, too. Knowing how many quarterbacks now make starts each season because of injury attrition, it’s also fun to speculate on the late-rounders.
Here’s predicting when every notable rookie QB will see the field first, either in ’24 or beyond:
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NFL first-round QB starting predictions
Jayden Daniels, Commanders
Daniels isn’t assuming he will start in Week 1 even though the team doesn’t have the most inspiring bridge option in new veteran backup Marcus Mariota. But when Kliff Kingsbury last operated an NFL offense, he was tied to putting 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray in the immediate best position to succeed.
Daniels has a big arm and dazzling athleticism, giving him a high floor, a la Anthony Richardson from last season. He also comes in much more seasoned than Richardson, having played five college seasons with Arizona State and LSU.
Prediction: The reigning Heisman Trophy winner turns 24 in December, and the Commanders need to see what they have right away. Daniels is named the starter early in training camp and will be in the lineup Week 1 at Tampa Bay.
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Drake Maye, Patriots
Now this exercise gets tougher, as there’s a strong case for Maye to go either way. On one hand, rookie head coach Jerod Mayo is trying to put his post-Bill Belichick stamp on the team. Maye has looked the part of a franchise QB early in his team workouts. After taking him No. 3 overall, the Patriots also need to find out if Maye is the right man, stat, after the first-round fizzle with Mac Jones.
On the other hand, Mayo has suggested Maye has a long way to go in polishing his skill set, including footwork and mechanics. The team also has a strong bridge option in returning Patriot Jacoby Brissett, who is a quick study in any system and can use that to his advantage under former Browns assistant Alex Van Pelt.
The Patriots also have numerous questions about the offensive line and supporting skill players in the passing game. They might want to protect Maye from taking the tough lumps early and wait until he gets a little more grooming as he learns on the bench.
Prediction: Meeting somewhere in the middle, let’s call Maye making his first start in Week 5 vs. Miami (Oct. 6) when the Patriots begin a run of three consecutive home games after a brutal Week 4 trip to San Francisco.
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
Kirk Cousins is on track to recover from his torn Achilles to make his first start for Atlanta in Week 1. Penix is expected to “redshirt” during his rookie season, but then again, Cousins is coming off major injury and will turn 36 in August.
The Falcons are developing into a rather strong favorite to be the latest team to take the NFC South title, displacing the Buccaneers. They should stay in wild-card contention with Cousins getting more out of their offensive weapons in the new system.
In that scenario, coach Raheem Morris and coordinator Zac Robinson won’t be sitting Cousins to look at the near future. Penix looks like he will need to wait until 2025 when the Falcons evaluate the situation with him and Cousins again next offseason.
Prediction: If the Falcons can put away the division by Week 17 (Dec. 20 at Commanders), they should think about giving Penix a one-off rookie starting shot that parallels what the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes as a rookie behind Alex Smith in 2017.
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
McCarthy has some early momentum after showing he has a good grasp of Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Minnesota officials also have been tied to the former Michigan QB performing well in their scheme for a while, well before he was drafted. Sam Darnold does have the coaching staff connection with Josh McCown, and there will be some feeling that Darnold, making $10 million for the season, was paid to be a bridge.
But McCarthy can keep accelerating his absorption, and O’Connell can feel comfortable turning to him after the preseason because Minnesota has such a strong offensive line, running game, and receiving corps. Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison will be in the mix taking pressure off McCarthy behind left tackle Christian Darrisaw. Tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee) should be healthy soon enough to be a strong additional security blanket.
Prediction: Darnold didn’t inspire much with Kyle Shanahan during his lone 49ers season, so there’s no great vibe he can look like the better Week 1 option in O’Connell’s passing game. McCarthy’s smarts, toughness, and ceiling add up to him being out there starting at the Giants in Week 1 on Sept. 8.
Bo Nix, Broncos
Sean Payton’s other QBs are Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, but Denver’s offensive coaching staff is still making Nix go through the rigamarole of a three-man battle with passers who don’t fit the willing or reliable backup profiles with their limited experience.
In relation, Nix has plenty of college experience at Auburn and Oregon. The Broncos were excited to draft him high because of the natural execution and accuracy he can offer the offense under Payton and Joe Lombardi. Nix is already their most accomplished passer vs. shaky competition.
Prediction: Wilson had to be acquired to create some reasonable depth after blowing up the QB room without Russell Wilson. Stidham started in 2023 only because he wasn’t Russell Wilson. Even in a somewhat hostile environment, Nix will feel a little at home in the Pacific Northwest when starts in Seattle right away in Week 1 (Sept. 8).
NFL late-round rookie QB starting predictions
Spencer Rattler, Saints
The Saints are breaking in a new offense under OC Klint Kubiak, right when Carr was finding a groove under Pete Carmichael Jr. Barring an injury to Carr, however, it’s difficult to envision the fifth-rounder Rattler seeing the field in 2024.
Rattler’s first task will be beating 2023 fourth-rounder Jake Haener, the incumbent default young No. 2 to Carr. Carr is signed through 2026. Let’s call Rattler making a fill-in start for Carr, one of the league’s most durable starters, in 2025.
Jordan Travis, Jets
The Jets got well-traveled Tyrod Taylor as their No. 2 to make sure they don’t get into another QB mess should Aaron Rodgers go down again. But Rodgers, signed only through 2025, turns 41 in December. There’s no guarantee he will hold up well despite a rather accelerated recovery from the torn Achilles he suffered in Week 1 last season.
As a potential playoff team because of their elite defense and improved offensive support, the Jets are bound to turn to Taylor in the event of a Rodgers’ injury to help them get a much-needed winning fourth season under Robert Saleh. Taylor, however, will turn 35 in August and signed a two-year deal, covering Rodgers’ time in New York.
Travis, also a fifth-rounder, is recovering from the major ankle injury that cut short his promising final season at Florida State. He needs to first get healthy, then get on his development track. He does have some big upside as a passer and runner, and he can learn well from both Rodgers and Taylor.
Should the Jets not draft any more QBs in the short Rodgers era (iffy for now), Travis will need to wait for a starting shot in 2026. But keep in mind, the Giants needed to go to undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito last season behind Taylor because of more concussion concerns for the veteran.
Joe Milton, Patriots
Milton was drafted in the sixth round well after Maye because of his massive arm and ability to connect on any downfield pass. He has started No. 4 on the depth chart and is facing an uphill battle behind Brissett, Maye, and Bailey Zappe. However, Milton also has a rare, jaw-dropping asset as he continues to develop the rest of his game.
Should Brissett delay the starting of Maye, then it would suggest Milton has almost zero chance to start as a rookie. His first goal is making the team, period, over Zappe, a holdover from the old regime. The Patriots will put Milton in the best position possible to make it as a fellow rookie to Maye. Otherwise, why use a pick on him?
Brissett, however, is only on a one-year deal. Zappe will need to be tendered to remain on the team as a restricted free agent next year. Should Maye make his transition at some point as a rookie, the QB room sets up to be the two-second year draftees in 2025, with the door open for Milton should Maye have a sophomore slump or key injury.