Every NFL offseason brings about optimism, freshness, speculation and overreaction.
With the heart of free agency and the draft in the books for 2024, let’s look at overreactions that are bound to take place for each team and explain why you might want to take a chill pill before drawing any conclusions.
After all, it’s a long season.
Buffalo Bills
Overreaction: They lost too many veterans due to their cap crunch and are now likely to take a step backward just as Aaron Rodgers turns the Jets into a contender in the AFC East.
Why: Josh Allen is still Josh Allen and the Bills still have plenty of young talent.
Miami Dolphins
Overreaction: They lost too many veterans due to their cap crunch and are now likely to take a step backward just as Rodgers turns the Jets into a contender.
Why: The offense remains stacked overall, and Rodgers might not have much left at age 40.
New England Patriots
Overreaction: Drake Maye and Jerod Mayo can bring on a new era of success in the wake of the end of the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick years.
Why: Maye is realistically a roll of the dice at best based on the first-round quarterback crapshoot, and most coaches don’t excel in their first head-coaching roles.
New York Jets
Overreaction: Healthy again and backed by an elite defense, Rodgers is about to dominate again.
Why: He hasn’t been effective since 2021. Plus, he’s now 40. Only 15 quarterbacks in NFL history have started games in their 40s, and many of them posted losing records beyond their 40th birthday.
Baltimore Ravens
Overreaction: Derrick Henry will compensate for significant veteran losses elsewhere for a team that had limited salary-cap space.
Why: Henry will go down as a great player, but he’s now 30 years old, and his yards-per-game average has consistently plummeted since 2020.
Cincinnati Bengals
Overreaction: They lost too many veterans to continue contending in the strong AFC.
Why: Joe Burrow is healthy again, and he should just be entering his prime at age 27. Plus, recent contenders like the Bills, Dolphins and Ravens have also taken hits this offseason.
Cleveland Browns
Overreaction: With Nick Chubb hopefully returning and Jerry Jeudy joining the receiving corps, Deshaun Watson can finally get his career back on track.
Why: Watson hasn’t been an effective NFL quarterback since 2020. He’s lost the benefit of the doubt. Plus, it’s possible Chubb won’t be back to his old self anytime soon as he recovers from a multi-ligament knee injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Overreaction: “If you’ve got two quarterbacks, you have none.”
Why: That old adage isn’t always accurate. Russell Wilson has the talent and track record to revive his career, and Justin Fields has the ability to flourish in the right new environment.
Houston Texans
Overreaction: With even more support than he had in 2023, second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud will become a superstar and lead the Texans deep into the 2024 playoffs.
Why: Sophomore slumps are a thing, and the rest of the league will be much better prepared to defend Stroud and face a Houston team that surprised everybody last year.
Indianapolis Colts
Overreaction: With plenty of capital to work with, they didn’t do enough to enhance the roster for young quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Why: We’ve seen time and again that free agency is overrated, and the Colts kept their core together. Trust the process.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Overreaction: Ronald Darby, Arik Armstead, Darnell Savage and rookies Maason Smith and Jarrian Jones can fix a defense that was below average across the board in 2023.
Why: Jacksonville’s defense might be better, but none of those guys are massive difference-makers. Besides, the Jaguars also lost Rayshawn Jenkins, Darious Williams, K’Lavon Chaisson and Tre Herndon this offseason.
Tennessee Titans
Overreaction: An improved supporting cast can help Will Levis become a legitimate franchise quarterback in 2024.
Why: The Titans didn’t do close to enough considering Levis’ issues. The 2023 second-round pick completed only 58.4 percent of his passes and had the league’s lowest qualified on-target rate during his roller-coaster rookie season.
Denver Broncos
Overreaction: It was time to move on from Russell Wilson.
Why: Two coaches and two offenses in two seasons and you bail on a future Hall of Famer who isn’t far past his prime? You’re now stuck with that bill for years to come?
The Broncos would have been better off riding it out with Wilson for at least one more season to see if he could mesh better with Sean Payton. He did show signs of that at times in 2023.
Kansas City Chiefs
Overreaction: Another offseason of notable veteran departures will finally take its toll on the Chiefs.
Why: Bet against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid at your own peril. Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy were brilliant low-cost additions in support of the NFL’s best quarterback.
Las Vegas Raiders
Overreaction: The screwed up by losing a game of first-round quarterback musical chairs.
Why: History says trading up or over-drafting a quarterback is a bad idea, and the Raiders are probably at least a year away in such a tough division. Let’s see how the roster develops in 2024, as well as how the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix fare elsewhere.
Los Angeles Chargers
Overreaction: Jim Harbaugh can take Justin Herbert and the offense to another level in a contending season.
Why: It won’t happen overnight, especially after the Chargers parted ways with Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason. The defense still looks weak following a bottom-five campaign, so you should probably cool it on the Bolts no matter how much you believe in Harbaugh and Herbert.
Dallas Cowboys
Overreaction: By sitting out much of the offseason while waiting to pay Dak Prescott for an expensive walk year, they sacrificed too much elsewhere.
Why: This was a 12-win team featuring the MVP runner-up and the best scoring margin in the NFC last year, and the Cowboys didn’t lose much of significance in free agency. Not signing Prescott to an extension might feel like a half-measure, but the all-in approach could still work for a team that was already good enough to contend.
New York Giants
Overreaction: With more weapons, Daniel Jones and the offense can finally put it together in 2024.
Why: Nothing is assured with No. 6 overall pick Malik Nabers out of the gate, Allen Robinson is likely washed up, and the Giants will miss Saquon Barkley. They still don’t have nearly enough talent in place to compensate for Jones’ shortcomings as a passer.
Philadelphia Eagles
Overreaction: They needed to shake things up more on offense after a disappointing run to end the season from Jalen Hurts and Co.
Why: Offense was never the Eagles’ main problem last year, and Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have earned more rope. Besides, they at least brought in Kellen Moore to run the offense under Nick Sirianni, and they’ve added Barkley and a handful of rookies to the mix. The Eagles’ offense will be just fine.
Washington Commanders
Overreaction: Dan Quinn is an uninspiring retread who won’t get the Commanders back on track.
Why: An epic Super Bowl choke stands out from Quinn’s tenure with the Atlanta Falcons, but that frankly had as much to do with Kyle Shanahan as it did with Quinn. Prior to that, he made an impressive mark in Atlanta. He’s also a defensive mastermind who could be a hit in his second head-coaching gig.
Chicago Bears
Overreaction: With Caleb Williams in place, the Bears are ready to contend.
Why: Williams could pull a C.J. Stroud with a better roster than Houston had in 2023, but Chicago still faces an uphill battle in a division with Detroit and Green Bay. The Bears were a bottom-12 team in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) last season, and the defense doesn’t look any better on paper.
Detroit Lions
Overreaction: They should now be considered the Super Bowl favorite in the NFC.
Why: The Lions addressed their vulnerable pass defense this offseason, and there’s little reason to believe they won’t continue to build on a breakout 2023 season. With that said, would it be shocking if Jared Goff came crashing back to earth? The Eagles are also poised to bounce back in a major way to join Detroit and San Francisco atop the NFC totem pole.
Green Bay Packers
Overreaction: Status quo is enough for Jordan Love to keep taking off in 2024.
Why: The Packers aren’t messing with what doesn’t appear to be broken, because Love was incredible down the stretch in his first year as a starter. However, that was only an eight-game sample size. He was not very impressive during the first half of last season, and the rest of the league will now be far more ready for him. To become a true contender, Green Bay probably needed to do more this offseason.
Minnesota Vikings
Overreaction: With a great arsenal of weapons, rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy should take off immediately.
Why: McCarthy might not have the arm talent to do so, and Sam Darnold has the skill, pedigree and salary of someone who could pose a huge challenge to the first-round rookie. Darnold figures to start some games in 2024.
Atlanta Falcons
Overreaction: Kirk Cousins can take a talented Falcons offense deep into the playoffs.
Why: The Falcons are certainly paying Cousins like he can, but he’s a 35-year-old zero-time All-Pro with one career playoff win under his belt. He’s also coming back from an Achilles tear, so expectations should be kept in check.
Carolina Panthers
Overreaction: With a handful of new cogs on offense, the Panthers did enough this offseason to help get Bryce Young on track.
Why: There’s a real chance that Young never puts it together. He had by far the worst bad-throw rate in the league last year, and more support can’t fix that on its own. This dice roll might wind up being snake eyes for the Panthers.
New Orleans Saints
Overreaction: New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can get more out of Derek Carr and the offense.
Why: Not everything Kyle Shanahan touches turns to gold. Keep in mind that Kubiak’s experience working with Russell Wilson in Denver in 2022 was ugly. Carr is well beyond his prime, which wasn’t special in the first place. The Saints are delaying an inevitable rebuild.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overreaction: With the core still intact, Baker Mayfield can keep taking off in 2024.
Why: It’s absolutely possible. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick had an impressive showing last season. But there’s also a decent chance that it was a fluke and that he’ll come back to earth with defenses better prepared for him in 2024.
Arizona Cardinals
Overreaction: Marvin Harrison Jr. and an overall improved offense can get Kyler Murray back to where he was a few years ago.
Why: Murray just might get there, but it won’t necessarily be because of Harrison and Co. It’ll be because he remains healthy throughout the season. That hasn’t come close to happening for him since 2020 and 2021, when he did look like a future superstar.
Los Angeles Rams
Overreaction: They won’t be able to recover quickly from Aaron Donald’s retirement.
Why: As awesome as Donald was, his impact faded a bit over the past few years. Plus, the defense should be better overall thanks to the additions of Kamren Curl, Tre’Davious White, Darious Williams, Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and Kamren Kinchens.
San Francisco 49ers
Overreaction: With Ricky Pearsall on board, Brock Purdy is on track for another huge season and a massive payday.
Why: It’s still fair to wonder how sustainable Purdy’s hot start to his career winds up being, and one intriguing rookie first-round receiver won’t change that. Purdy has fallen short in big moments over the last two seasons and still needs to prove for at least one more full season that he really is a diamond in the seventh-round rough.
Seattle Seahawks
Overreaction: Sam Howell gives them another potential long-term option at quarterback.
Why: Geno Smith isn’t the Seahawks’ long-term answer, as he showed in 2023 that his strong 2022 campaign was an aberration. Nor is Howell, who led the league in both interceptions and sacks allowed during a gaffe-filled sophomore season in Washington. The answer under center for Seattle isn’t on the current roster.