Australia to swelter through an ‘unusually warm’ winter

Aussies are in for an unusually warm winter with many of the nation’s capitals set to reach higher than average temperatures. 

Huge parts of NSW, Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania, WA and South Australia are likely to experience higher than normal temperatures over the next month, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

This winter is expected to surpass last year’s benchmark as the warmest winter since records began in 1910.

Average daily temperatures were 1.53C above the long-term winter average, with every winter since 2012 being warmer than the 30-year average.

Winter sport enthusiasts are warned this may put ski season at risk yet again after last year saw resorts suffer one of the worst snow seasons in two decades. 

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Data from Snowy Hydro showed the depth of snow during the 2023 season was at its lowest in 17 years in elevated areas of the Snowy Mountains.

Snow levels were at the lowest in 50 years at lower elevations. 

BOM senior climatologist Simon Grainger argued the warmer forecast does not necessarily rule out good snow conditions.

‘Snowfall in south-east Australia is really determined by cold fronts, and weather systems that we can forecast in the short term,’ Dr Grainger told the ABC.

‘So we can still get a single, big weather event that could make a significant difference to the overall snow season.’

A warm winter outlook doesn’t mean there won’t be individual days of frost, colder weather or snow, but rather that the odds are favouring temperatures to be warmer than normal overall across the season, he added. 

Experts are turning their attention to a possibility of a brewing La Nina weather pattern.

There are signs it could develop during the coming months, meaning it would greatly increase the chance of a wet spring and summer across most of Australia.

‘Although there is some forecasts of [La Niña], and some chance of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing, it’s all still currently neutral,’ Dr Grainger said. 

‘And so we’re not seeing a very strong signal in the rainfall.’

BOM declared the end of the 2023-24 El Nino event last month, which would’ve increased the odds in eastern Australia for a dry winter into spring.

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