The 2024 NBA Draft features a class that is lacking in star power at the top. The Atlanta Hawks won the lottery and will be selecting first overall, but there are quite a few players that are under consideration in that spot. That’s not very common when it comes to basketball. We usually have a good idea of who will be going first, and casual NBA fans generally know a lot of the top prospects through the college game or social media hype. Well, one player that everybody knows is Bronny James, son of Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James. And while Bronny isn’t even considered a lottery pick, he has been the subject of a lot of the pre-draft conversations over the last couple of weeks. In fact, DraftKings Sportsbook has an Over/Under draft position up for Bronny, despite not having them available for some of the top prospects in the class. With that in mind, get ready to hear a lot of Bronny chatter over the next couple of weeks. And you can keep reading for our dive into the topic, as I have a pick on Bronny’s draft position of 39.5.
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Last season, Bronny averaged 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game for the USC Trojans. He also shot just 36.6% from the field and 26.7% from 3. It was a trying year for the highly-touted freshman, and the fact that he was coming off the bench for a USC team that went 15-18 only made matters worse. Bronny’s lousy numbers and inability to hold down a starting spot for a bad Pac-12 team have people questioning him heading into the draft. A lot of media personalities and casual fans will simply say that he stinks and doesn’t deserve any attention heading into the draft. But doing that ignores some really important context.
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When talking about Bronny’s struggles in his freshman year, people don’t seem to factor in that he went into cardiac arrest in late July. Bronny was hospitalized for three days and later learned that he has a congenital heart defect. Doctors ultimately cleared Bronny to return to action, but not before the 6-foot-1 guard underwent some serious testing. And overall, he had to take quite a bit of time off to get himself healthy. Bronny got off to a late start and wasn’t able to work on his game like he would in a normal summer. And Andy Enfield, the former USC head coach that is now at SMU, eased Bronny into action, giving him 20 or fewer minutes in the first eight games of his college career.
If Bronny’s late start to the year wasn’t enough, he also wasn’t a great fit on the Trojans. Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis, USC’s starting guards, are both shoot-first players. So, there really wasn’t anybody out there that was directing traffic and getting everybody their touches. And while you might say Bronny was responsible for that, he’s more of a connective piece than a pure a point guard. On top of that, USC wasn’t a great 3-point shooting team last year. The Trojans were 84th in the nation in 3PT% and just 198th in 3-point rate. Why is that important? USC’s floor spacing simply wasn’t there, so Bronny was not getting great looks.
All in all, last season was a funky one for Bronny, but NBA teams are likely going to flush it and focus on his skill set. Offensively, Bronny has the potential to be a knockdown shooter, despite what his 3-point percentage at USC suggests. He has clean mechanics and shot the 3 well at every level before college. Bronny is also a bright player when it comes to moving the ball. Sure, he might not be able to run an offense by himself, but he can be a good secondary or tertiary playmaker. Defensively, Bronny is a good point-of-attack defender, capable of hounding opposing lead guards. I know NBA teams can occasionally pick on shorter guards, but Bronny’s 6-foot-7 wingspan should prevent that from happening. That makes him a good fit for a team that has a big lead ball handler. All of that means that Bronny has the potential to be a good role player, assuming the shot pans out. And that shouldn’t be surprising to anybody, as Bronny was the 20th-ranked player in the 2023 ESPN 100. So, while people want to treat him like some sort of charity case, he was actually ranked higher than Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard, a potential top-five pick, heading into the college season.
Bronny also impressed some people at the NBA Draft Combine. Bronny shot 19 for 25 in the 3-point shooting drill, showcasing why so many people believe in his jump shot. He also played very well in his second scrimmage, scoring a team-high 13 points in 23 minutes and making a bunch of winning plays.
Quite frankly, NBA teams look at Bronny a lot differently than casual fans do. And so do NBA players. Draymond Green, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have all come out and said that they think Bronny will be a good pro.
All of that is why I ultimately like Bronny to be selected before the 40th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. And I don’t think it can be dismissed that Shams Charania reported that the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers are the only teams that Bronny will work out for. On Friday, May 31st, we learned that the Lakers will be keeping their 17th selection in the draft. Well, if Phoenix is serious about taking Bronny, that would have to be with the 22nd pick in the draft. The Suns don’t have any other picks this year. So, if Los Angeles wants to help LeBron achieve his dream of playing with his son, the team might have to pull the trigger at 17. That said, I don’t think Bronny being picked in the first round is off the table. And it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he already has a draft promise from Phoenix. It would be ballsy of Rich Paul to only have Bronny work out for two teams if he doesn’t know for a fact that he’s going somewhere that makes him happy.
The fact that the Under 39.5 draft position is available at plus-money odds is the cherry on top. While everybody references his 4.8 points per game and laughs at the idea of him being picked, you can get a favorable payout on something that all the information out there suggests is a real possibility.