The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released its Cost of Defence report, which says that while the nation’s future military funding plans are impressive, there are risks over the next decade.
“If war were to break out at any time in the next 10 years, our military would essentially fight with the force it has today,” ASPI executive director Justin Bassi wrote.
“Based on current resourcing, nothing significant will change over the decade.
“Most of the major new capabilities in the government’s defence investment blueprint are two decades away from being fully fielded.
“That blueprint does contain some shorter-term enhancements, but these will not be fielded until the 2030s.”
However, only 5.7 per cent of that will be spent in the next four years, with the majority of the funds allocated for the 2030s, and that could lead to shortfalls in the Australian Defence Force in the coming years.
“Other countries are furiously pursuing new capabilities that can be put into action quickly – such as creating masses of small drones and prototyping and developing new technologies,” Bassi wrote.
“We talk about technology and asymmetric advantage – playing to your strengths and finding effective means to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses – yet we lack a credible pathway to bring them into operation to bolster the force we have today.
“Over the longer term, the picture starts gradually to improve. The $50 billion in additional spending over the next decade is an important commitment, even if far away.”
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Rather than pointing the finger at the government, though, the paper called for a societal shift in how defence spending is viewed.
“It’s easy to criticise; harder to do,” the report reads.
“All governments are grappling with tight budgets amid competing demands and the unremitting expectations of voters and taxpayers.
“As a nation, we need to accept the need for higher defence spending. Hoping that conflict won’t come is not a viable strategy.
“If we are prepared for war, we have a better chance of deterring and hence averting it.”