4 Tactical Questions That Determine The Winner Of The 2024 NBA Finals

The 2024 NBA Finals will have a little bit of everything for everyone. It’s the perfect, surface-level matchup that all ages can appreciate. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, two offensive superstars, are trying to carry a 5th-seeded Dallas Mavericks team that no one expected to get to this point to a championship over Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and a well-rounded, historic Boston Celtics team. Poetically, Irving will face off against a fanbase that carries some bad blood for their former guard and Celtics big man Kristaps Porzingis will have to return to Dallas and win against his former team. Narratives will be driven. The casual fan will be able to relish it all.

But for any hoops juckie, tactically, this series has everything you could want out of playoff basketball. The initial matchups will be all important. The chess match that ensues will likely spark debate. And every single possession will matter.

It is the Finals after all.

Let’s look at some of the tactical questions that will determine the winner of this series.

What Will The Celtics Baseline Coverage Be On Luka Doncic?

This feels like a big chunk of the tactical pie in this one. Luka Doncic is the best player in this series and how he’s defended will have a trickle-down effect, both in terms of what the Mavericks can achieve and what the Celtics are willing to concede.

Typically, and particularly against big, playmaking wings like Doncic, the Celtics don’t aggressively trap, hedge, or biltz pick-and-roll coverages because once Luka sees that two defenders are coming to the ball, he’s able to make plays to find his teammates. His teammates get in rhythm, and eventually, that plan backfires.

Instead, they’ll opt to outright switch, or have one of Derrick White or Jrue Holiday fight over screens and pinch in on all of Luka’s drives. Still, that gives Luka the avenue to find his teammates, especially on the weak side where Irving will lurk for opportunities to attack a titled defense. But Boston tactfully does this, not allowing high-percentage corner threes and forcing teams to funnel the ball above the break on offense. For example, Boston conceded the least corner threes in the post-season, while Dallas took the most corner threes. It’s a clash of styles and goals in the best way possible. To take it further, how deep do the Celtics’ bigs drop in the pick-and-roll? Do they stay home and prevent the lob over the top to Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively which has dominated this post-season? Or do they try to split the difference?

And besides, who ends up being the primary defender against Doncic? Jaden McDaniels length didn’t seem too successful in the Timberwolves series. But Lu Dort’s physicality and strength played a factor in the Mavericks’ series win over the Thunder. Perhaps the Celtics notice that trend and throw the stout Holiday onto the Slovenian phenom. Or Perhaps they want to use Tatum’s length. Maybe Jaylen Brown’s combination of the two.

Truthfully, no two defensive possessions against Doncic should look the same because the more he gets used to any given coverage, the easier it is for him to begin dissecting it.

And that’s where the fun lies.

Who Will Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving Guard?

The Mavericks have had the third-best half-court defense in the post-season, allowing just under 93 points per 100 half-court possessions. Overall, they’ve had the 5th-best defense giving up just over 110 points per 100 possessions. The length of Lively, Gafford and their wings, PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr has been troublesome for any team, especially when the Mavericks defense is set.

Luka and Kyrie have been a big part of that as well. The Mavericks have put Doncic lower on defense, allowing him to use his size and length as a help-defender and addressing some of his limitations as a perimeter defender. Irving has used his speed to be laterally quick and not allow easy drives to the basket. They’ve both bought in and it’s bearing fruit for Dallas.

That being said, this matchup is a little more difficult. Every Celtics starter can score or initiate the offense, especially if Porzingis is healthy and available. The likely scenario is that Doncic will be put on Holiday or Horford, the least aggressive of the bunch but still – both players have proven in the past that when teams do that, they can make them pay (See Game 2 versus Indiana Pacers and Al Horford versus the Milwaukee Bucks in 2022).

And who will Irving be forced to guard? By putting him on White, the Mavericks are exposing Irving to a lot of taxing defensive possessions where he’ll have to guard the Celtics’ primary ball-handler, who’s often running actions with Tatum and Brown, which means Irving will likely have to switch out onto them.

It’s tough. The Mavs will try to find possessions where they can buy some rest for their two offensive stars, but it’ll be few and far between. Time for Jason Kidd to get creative.

Will The Mavericks Pack The Paint Or Will Kristaps Force Their Hand?

The Mavericks have been sublime at protecting the paint this post-season. Opponents are shooting a measly 59% at the rim against them and the Mavericks are allowing just under 43 points in the paint through 17 games, the 4th-best mark in the playoffs. Their combination of length, aggression from help defenders on drives, and the size and rim-protecting abilities of Lively and Gafford have caused problems for opposing offenses.

Boston doesn’t get to the rim a ton either way. Less than 30% of their total shots come at the basket, good for 26th in the regular season. But it hasn’t impacted their offense all that much because they take the most threes in the NBA and are 2nd in 3-point percentage.

How much will Dallas adapt? Will they abandon their ‘boxes and elbows’ strategy that has been so effective in the post-season?

A likely key ingredient to this question is Kristaps Porzingis. The floor-stretching big man can draw out Lively and Gafford with his shooting ability and completely nullify Dallas’s tactics.

Who Guards Jayson Tatum?

The discussion on Jayson Tatum has gone too far. Yes, he’s struggled in some moments this post-season but he’s still averaging over 26 points, 10 rebounds, and just under 6 assists on 57% true shooting. The 3-point shooting drought has warped people’s perceptions of an otherwise effective Finals run for Boston’s best player.

And by the way, Dallas has no true answer for him. The two primary options are Derrick Jones Jr and PJ Washington and while they’ve been effective against the likes of Paul George, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Anthony Edwards – Tatum’s physicality and strength pose a different type of problem.

Jones Jr.’s frame is too small. Washington is a better option but he might just be the only option. Do the Mavericks trust throwing Maxi Kleber onto Tatum? The Mavs floor-spacing big has proven capable in switches and against more physical players.

Still, there’s no easy solution. Much like there isn’t one to guarding Doncic either.

And that’s why this series will be an elite game of chess. We likely will witness a back-and-forth of tactics, the push-and-pull, give-and-take between two teams performing at the highest level.

I can’t wait.