Eight new full-time head coaches are going to work in 2024, including five rookies. That means a fourth of the NFL fired their former coaches during or right after last season.
In 2023, there were only four new hires, but that came after seven teams had to change coaches in 2022. Adding all that up, that’s a massive turnover.
Unfortunately, there will be another slew of coaches relieved of their duties well before this time in 2025. Here’s looking at who should be feeling the hottest seats with their job in ’24.
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Ranking NFL coaches on the hot seat
1. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
McCarthy has gone 45-22 in his 67 regular-season games with the Cowboys. Dallas has two NFC East division titles and a wild-card berth to show after four seasons, and they have gone 12-5 with Dak Prescott healthy under McCarthy for three consecutive years.
That is a more consistent and successful run of results than predecessor Jason Garrett, whose Cowboys made the playoffs only three times total in 10 seasons. But McCarthy, who led the Packers to victory in Super Bowl 45, was hired by Jerry Jones with hopes of getting over the playoff hump.
That hasn’t happened, as the Cowboys are 1-3 with McCarthy in the postseason, failing to advance past the divisional round. McCarthy already is testing Jones’ patience, so if there’s a fade in the regular season followed by another quick playoff exit, Big D may once again be looking for someone who can lead the team to bigger and better results.
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2. Dennis Allen, Saints
The Saints didn’t come through as NFC South favorites last season after Allen reunited with his former Raiders QB Derek Carr. The defense still has a lot of good pieces, but New Orleans needs much more out of a new-look offense to have any playoff shot. Allen is only 16-18 after two seasons, and after going 9-8 last season, the third-year pressure will be on him to push New Orleans forward in a still-winnable, weak division.
3. Matt Eberflus, Bears
Eberflus is only 10-24 in his two seasons, but Chicago improved from 3-14 to 7-10 in 2023. The Bears, after drafting Caleb Williams as their new franchise QB, are a buzzy turnaround potential playoff team in 2024, despite playing in the tough NFC North. That hype has Eberflus as the BetMGM odds-on favorite to take home NFL coach of the year (+900), even ahead of heavy hitters such as the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh (+1000).
With a revamped offense and a solid Eberflus defense, that also means there are sky-high expectations. If those aren’t met with Williams right away, then Eberflus would be first in the line of firing should the Bears not make the playoffs again.
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4. Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Stefanski has a solid 37-30 record in his four seasons. He was feeling some heat going into last season after going 15-19 in the previous two campaigns, letting down from an 11-5 playoff season when he was a rookie in 2020.
But then the Browns shot back up to 11-6 despite not having a healthy Deshaun Watson and going piecemeal at QB for much of the season. The big reason for that, however, was a top defense under Jim Schwartz. It also helped that in the AFC North behind the winning Ravens, the Bengals faded with Joe Burrow’s injury and the third-place Steelers had QB issues of their own.
Getting to the playoffs again out of a brutal division will be difficult, especially with the league’s hardest strength of schedule based on the combined 2023 winning percentage of 2024 opponents (.547, 158-131). With a fifth-year regression, Browns brass could get impatient with Stefanski, especially when you factor in Cleveland’s 45-14 wild-card drubbing at the hands of the Texans.
5. Brian Daboll, Giants
Daboll had immediate success as a rookie in 2022, taking the Giants to a 9-7-1 record and wild-card berth before they advanced to the divisional playoffs. His injury-riddled team, led by Daniel Jones’ knee woes, dropped to 6-11 in 2023. The clock is ticking for the offensive-minded Daboll to show more with a healthy Jones, especially with the uncertainty about Jones as a franchise QB.
The Giants have a good defensive front seven as their foundation, but the other side needs to come through with Jones in an upgraded passing game featuring rookie first-round receiver Malik Nabers. Another shaky sub-.500 season may not save Daboll, given predecessor Joe Judge wasn’t given long.
6. Nick Sirianni, Eagles
The NFC East is a tough place to coach. Add a third team from the division to this list, and the Commanders don’t make the cut only because they just hired Dan Quinn in 2024.
Sirianni is 34-17 in the regular season, He’s three-for-three in taking Philadelphia to the playoffs, with a pair of wild-card berths sandwiching a wire-to-wire NFC championship. But keep in mind winning a Super Bowl didn’t add up to more than a five-year tenure for predecessor Doug Pederson.
Philly gets fickle with its coaches, even when they’re Pederson and Andy Reid. Sirianni is in the same offensive-minded boat where staying afloat as an NFC contender is the expected floor for his team. Sirianni, like McCarthy, cannot have a disappointing regression after the Eagles lost six of their final seven, including a wild-card game, last season.
7. Doug Pederson, Jaguars
Pederson went 42-37-1 with that one ring during his five years in Philadelphia. He’s right there just above .500 with an 18-16 mark in two years for Jacksonville. The Jaguars had some AFC title hype last season, but they ended up going 9-8 again and not making the postseason.
Pederson and his offensive coaching staff need to come through with a transcendent contract season for Trevor Lawrence. He’s hoping a coordinator change to Ryan Nielsen will better take advantage of good defensive pieces, too. Getting back in the playoffs is imperative, but should Pederson see his team fade to six or fewer wins, Shad Khan may go in a different big-picture direction.
8. Sean Payton, Broncos
Payton saved his own tenure into Year 2 with a clear indication he was cutting ties with Russell Wilson and doing it his own way at QB with rookie first-rounder Bo Nix. Now the offensive-minded coach, with help from trusted lieutenant Joe Lombardi, needs to get the dormant Denver offense back on track.
Payton’s team is bound to take lumps in more of rebuild mode, but the key is not to freefall from 8-9 in 2023. More important, his winning blueprint from the Saints needs to show more than flashes of going into effect. Payton is probably safe for a third year, but he won’t be unless there are some positive signs to take into 2025.
9. Sean McDermott, Bills
McDermott was mentioned as sitting on part of the hot seat after the Bills’ latest playoff disappointment. He’s been a sparkling 73-41 in seven seasons and has produced four division titles and two wild-card berths. But if battling the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots in the tough AFC East adds up to a potential fade, watch out.
The Bills have fallen in the divisional playoffs for three consecutive postseasons after playing for the conference title vs. the Chiefs in 2020. They can’t seem to navigate a consistently challenging AFC playoff field to have a Super Bowl breakthrough. Now the Bills have had to take some personnel hits for cap purposes, and the Jets figure to be more formidable with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The Bills need to have another big division-winning season and back it up with a deep run, stat, to ensure McDermott’s return in 2025.
10. Robert Saleh, Jets
Saleh is also a promising Coach of the Year candidate. His Jets have gone 18-33 over the past three seasons with no playoff trips. But now with Rodgers back, there’s an expectation the Jets get to well above .500 and emerge as an armed-and-dangerous AFC playoff contender. The Jets should come through, given their offensive support improvements and defensive nastiness. If they do, Salah can stay cool and challenge Harbaugh and maybe Eberflus, too, for Coach of the Year.
However, if the team underachieves with Rodgers and doesn’t make the playoffs, both Saleh and GM Joe Douglas will be under fire. Saleh has used up his mulligans through the Jets’ patience. Now, it’s time to put up or fly out.
Of course, the Jets could further flop with Rodgers, and that won’t cut it.