Friday, October 25, 2024

Race-by-race preview and tips for Randwick on Saturday

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1. Missy Moola did get on speed favours first up at Randwick but it was an encouraging return from the former Kiwi. The progression out to the mile is perfect second up and her record on wet tracks is near perfect. Her one win on heavy ground was in maiden company in New Zealand but she put 4.5 lengths on her rivals. Apprentice jockey Amy McLucas rode the four-year-old a couple of weeks ago and she stays aboard. 2. Principessa is another mare that loves it wet. Gets straight out to the mile but she was only nine weeks between runs prior to resuming so there’d be some residual fitness. 5. Nana’s Wish last ran second to Scarlet Oak at Newcastle. She is another mare very comfortable in wet ground. 15. It’s A Wonder gets in with just 52kg in this grade. The Dundeel filly has had a number of false starts since her last start third in the Wagga Guineas.
How to play it: Missy Moola to win.

RACE 6 – 1:20PM TAB HCP (1000m)

13. The Black Cloud resumed with a career-best at Randwick first up over the 1000m. She has to contend with an extra 3kg and is drawn off the track. The task to make it four wins from fives starts doesn’t look an easy one but she’s untapped. It took her a while to level up to the speedy 10. Passeggiata, but once she did she raced clear the last 50m, asserting her authority late. Perhaps some query staying at 1000m second up given she won over 1100m twice in her first campaign before running second out to 1200m. 11. Fleetwood throws up a different form line. He had his first run as a gelding at Warwick Farm first up and won comfortably having led. Has always teased ability. The prospect of a wet track is unlikely to stop him. Will be interesting to see how he copes with the drop back to 1000m. Maps well.

How to play it: The Black Cloud to win.

RACE 7 – 1:55PM PETALUMA HCP (1300m)

3. Gravina has been excellent in two runs for Matt Dale. The former Godolphin-trained galloper was set for a first up tilt at the Wagga Town Plate, just missing in a busy finish. He lost nothing in defeat. The six-year-old then tackled the Luskin Star Stakes and found himself in a tricky spot upon settling having drawn inside. Jockey Louis Beuzelin had no choice other than to switch back to the fence, the inferior ground. He was still only beaten a narrow margin, matching it with G1 performer Amendable for much of the straight. All five of his career wins have been on soft and heavy ground and he has an outstanding Randwick record (11:3-2-4). 8. Astero boxed on to run third in the Takeover Target Stakes last start. 12. Estadio Mestalla was the eye-catcher coming through that same race, flashing home into fourth. There was nothing between the pair at the finish and they jumped the same starting price. Yet there is a significant discrepancy here.
How to play it: Gravina to win

RACE 8 – 2:30PM LORD MAYORS CUP (2000m)

12. Williamsburg sets up well for another crack at 2000m. All three previous tries at the trip were as a three-year-old. He ran fifth in the Spring Champion before running third to Lindermann and Pericles in the Rosehill Guineas and followed that up with a third to Osipenko and Pericles in the Frank Packer Plate. Long story short, he’ll get the journey. The promise of a wet track is also a huge boon for the son of Snitzel. Was no match for Iknowastar last start but he stuck on well. 13. Hopeful is another galloper that needs it wet. Three starts ago he gave Circle Of Fire a run for his money in the Chairman’s. His run at Warrnambool was much better than it reads on paper. 6. Sir Lucan shot clear last start at Newcastle and it nearly proved a masterstroke. He isn’t a sit sprint style of horse. He’s all about momentum.
How to play it: Williamsburg to win

RACE 9 – 3:05PM BOB CHARLEY AO STAKES (1100m)

16. Iowna Merc comes through the Ortensia Stakes last start, running on from the back of the field having drawn wide. He again gets in on the minimum and draws to settle a couple of pairs closer. Punters wanted to be with him at Scone. There is more to come from him. 13. Dashing Legend didn’t show up in two runs last campaign. She is better than that. Has trialled well. 11. Semillion was an all-the-way winner of the Takeover Target Stakes last start. Dropping back to 1100m shouldn’t be an issue four weeks between runs. 5. Eagle Nest matched it with Parisal for much of the Hawkesbury straight last start. She held off third comfortably. 12. Quick Tempo draws awkwardly but rates a mention.
How to play it: Iowna Merc to win

RACE 10 – 3:40PM RACING AND SPORTS HCP (1600m)

3. Waterford had a hard luck story to tell coming through the Scone Cup. The five-year-old is into his fourth Australian preperation but there is a case to be made that he has returned in career best form on what we have seen from him in two runs back. He attacked the line first-up at Rosehill to run down subsequent winner Iknowastar. A slow getaway cost 15. Ruby Flyer over this track and trip two weeks ago. He kept finding the line to run third but Iknowastar was already off and gone. Has just 53kg in this grade. Wet is fine. 13.Miracle Spin needed the run at Hawkesbury before improving out to the mile. Has to turn the tables in Ruby Flyer but heavy track helps.
How to play it: Waterford to win

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Race 11 – 4:20PM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HCP (1400m)

1. Hollywood Hero isn’t ideally suited back to 1400m as opposed to the 1500m he was set to tackle last Saturday prior to the washout. The prospect of a testing track could offset that. So could the month between runs. He drops back in grade from The Coast at Newcastle. Prior to that he bolted in at Canterbury. A repeat of that would go close to winning this. His first-up run behind Gringotts and Iknowastar reads well. 11. Xidaki is better set up tackling 1400m as opposed to 1500m. 14. Step Aside has looked sharp in two trials ahead of his return.
How to play it: Hollywood Hero to win

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