Monday, November 18, 2024

Where do the 2023 Denver Nuggets land in our NBA champion rankings — and where would the Celtics or Mavs fall?

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Who have been the best NBA champions since the “Last Dance” Chicago Bulls?

There have now been 25 titles won since Michael Jordan’s iconic game winner gave the Bulls their sixth championship in an eight-year span during their last run together before Jordan (temporarily) retired and Phil Jackson, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, Luc Longley, Ron Harper and Steve Kerr scattered throughout the rest of the NBA.

Although no team has matched Chicago’s six title runs over that much longer span, the past quarter century has given us a handful of memorable runs, from the Spurs winning five times across more than a decade with Tim Duncan to Jackson’s Lakers winning three consecutive championships 2000-02 to LeBron James titles with three different teams to the Warriors reaching six Finals and winning four times under Kerr, now on the sideline.

Using the formula I created to weight regular-season performance (as measured by point differential) and playoff dominance (point differential, adjusted for opposition faced during the run) in my rankings of the greatest NBA teams of all time a few years ago, let’s run through the past 25 champions — soon to be joined by either the Boston Celtics or the Dallas Mavericks — since Jordan and the Bulls defeated the Utah Jazz.


RS point differential: +11.6
Adjusted PO differential: +17.0

What happens when you take the core that won an NBA-record 73 games but not a championship (making the 2015-16 Warriors ineligible for this list) and add former MVP Kevin Durant? Predictably, the result was arguably the greatest team in league history and more clearly the best of the past quarter century.

Despite integrating Durant and then losing him to an MCL sprain for all of March, Golden State still won 67 games, tied for the seventh-best winning percentage in NBA history. The Warriors then swept their way through the Western Conference playoffs, aided by Kawhi Leonard‘s ankle sprain in Game 1 of the conference finals, and took the first three games of the NBA Finals before suffering their only playoff defeat in Game 4 at Cleveland.

Golden State’s 16-1 playoff record is the best of all time.


RS point differential: +3.4
Adjusted PO differential: +18.3

Since the NBA playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984, no team has improved more from the regular season to the playoffs than the 2000-01 “light switch” Lakers. As defending champions, the Lakers won 11 fewer games than the previous regular season. But like the 2016-17 Warriors, they swept through the West playoffs unbeaten and finished with just one playoff loss (Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Philadelphia 76ers, in overtime).

In fact, the Lakers had superior regular-season performances against their playoff opponents. They beat three other teams that won at least 55 games and faced a Portland Trail Blazers team in the first round that won 50 games and had been in the conference finals a year earlier. So, really, the 2001 Lakers’ playoff run rates even better than Golden State’s in 2017.


RS point differential: +7.7
Adjusted PO differential: +13.6

Although other teams were more consistently dominant, it’s possible no team in the past 25 years reached the heights the Spurs did in beating the two-time defending champion Miami Heat to finish their redemption tour after losing to Miami in heartbreaking fashion the previous year.

Buoyed by beautiful ball movement and stifling defense, San Antonio won the last three games against the Heat by a combined 57 points, making it one of the most lopsided Finals on record, even though Miami had, arguably, superior talent led by James.


4. 2014-15 Golden State Warriors (+10.5)

RS point differential: +10.1
Adjusted PO differential: +11.0

Given the 73-win team that followed, and the Durant era that followed that, it’s easy to overlook the first Golden State title team that merely had Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Finals MVP Andre Iguodala. Along with the 2016-17 Warriors, the 2014-15 team was the only other one since 1998 to outscore teams by double figures during the regular season and have a double-digit playoff differential after adjusting for opposition.


RS point differential: +6.0
Adjusted PO differential: +14.3

With Kyrie Irving limited to 53 games coming back from a patella fracture and a midseason coaching change from David Blatt to Tyronn Lue, the Cavaliers eased through the regular season. Come playoff time, they turned it up, sweeping the Atlanta Hawks in the second round. Then, after famously falling behind 3-1, Cleveland unleashed an incredible three-game win streak to defeat the 73-win Warriors in Game 7 on the road.

Cleveland’s adjusted playoff rating is third-best in the past quarter century, trailing only the 2001 Lakers and 2017 Warriors.


6. 2017-18 Golden State Warriors (+10.0)

RS point differential: +6.0
Adjusted PO differential: +14.0

By Durant’s second year with the team, the regular season had become a slog for the Warriors, who won nine fewer games than in any of their previous three Finals runs. Golden State was then pushed to the brink by the Houston Rockets in the conference finals, needing to win the last two games (including Game 7 in Houston) to get back to the Finals. After overcoming a 51-point performance from James in Game 1 against the Cavaliers to win in overtime, the Warriors completed their only Finals sweep.


7. 2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers (+9.5)

RS point differential: +7.7
Adjusted PO differential: +11.4

Seven years after their previous title run, the Lakers returned to the summit with a revamped roster around three key holdovers — Jackson as coach, Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher (in his second stint in L.A.).

The Lakers went the distance in the second round against a feisty Rockets team led by Yao Ming but needed just five games to dispatch the Orlando Magic in the Finals.


RS point differential: +10.3
Adjusted PO differential: +8.0

After adding Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to a team that had gone 24-58 the previous season, the Celtics put together a masterful 66-16 regular season that ranks third among champions on this list in point differential. The playoffs were shakier; Boston needed seven games in each of the first two rounds before dispatching a Lakers team similar to the one higher on this list in the Finals.


9. 1998-99 San Antonio Spurs (+8.9)

RS point differential: +8.1
Adjusted PO differential: +9.8

No asterisk necessary. Playing a shortened, 50-game schedule after the lockout pushed the start of play into 1999. The Spurs were both the NBA’s best team during the regular season (winning at a 61-win clip over a full 82 games) and in the playoffs. They swept the Lakers and the Blazers in the West playoffs and needed just five games in the Finals to defeat the eighth-seeded New York Knicks.


10. 2012-13 Miami Heat (+8.6)

RS point differential: +7.9
Adjusted PO differential: +9.4

No champion in NBA history came closer to losing than the 2012-13 Heat, who needed Allen’s memorable 3-pointer to force overtime in Game 6 of the Finals against San Antonio and avoid elimination. With that lifeline, Miami won the series and a second straight championship — this time with a much more impressive regular season. The Heat won 27 games in a row in February and March — the longest streak in a single season in the past five decades.


11. 2011-12 Miami Heat (+8.4)

RS point differential: +6.0
Adjusted PO differential: +10.7

After falling short in the 2011 Finals, Miami adjusted by adding shooting and playing faster in the second season of the Heatles. But it wasn’t until Chris Bosh was sidelined midway through the second round that Erik Spoelstra fully embraced small ball, bringing Bosh back as a center while Miami came back from a 3-2 deficit to beat the Celtics in the conference finals. After dropping Game 1 of the Finals in Oklahoma City, the Heat won four straight for James’ first title.


12. 2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers (+8.3)

RS point differential: +7.1
Adjusted PO differential: +9.6

As one of three teams in the West to win at least 58 games, the last of the three Lakers’ title teams had to go through both of the others to get back to the Finals. Everyone remembers the Lakers’ Game 7 win in Sacramento in a series marred by controversial refereeing. Forgotten is the Lakers blowing past a 58-win Spurs team in five hard-fought games.


13. 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs (+8.2)

RS point differential: +8.4
Adjusted PO differential: +8.0

Benefiting from upsets elsewhere, the Spurs faced a 51-win Utah team in the conference finals and a 50-win Cleveland team in James’ first Finals appearance, dispatching of both with ease. To get there, San Antonio had to beat a 61-win Phoenix Suns team in the conference semifinals, a matchup remembered for the suspensions of Boris Diaw and Amar’e Stoudemire during Game 5 in Phoenix after the Suns had tied the series 2-2.


RS point differential: +6.1
Adjusted PO differential: +10.2

As they integrated Leonard and dealt with his load management after an offseason trade with San Antonio, the Raptors played their best basketball in the playoffs. Leonard’s heroic series helped them outlast the 76ers in seven games in the conference semifinals. Toronto then won four consecutive games against the 60-win Bucks after falling to an 0-2 deficit and took down a short-handed but more experienced Warriors team. Adjusted for opposition, it rates as the 10th-best playoff run on this list.


15. 2004-05 San Antonio Spurs (+8.0)

RS point differential: +7.8
Adjusted PO differential: +8.1

The Spurs’ third title team had a slightly different balance with the development of young guards Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker as perimeter counterweights to Duncan. San Antonio outplayed the 62-win Suns in the conference finals, spoiling Steve Nash’s first year in Phoenix. But the Spurs then went the full seven games in the Finals against the defending champion Pistons.


16. 1999-2000 Los Angeles Lakers (+7.9)

RS point differential: +8.5
Adjusted PO differential: +7.3

Jackson’s first Lakers squad boasts the fourth-best regular-season differential among champions since his Bulls’ teams. The playoffs were a different story for the Lakers, who went the distance in the first round and needed a fourth-quarter comeback in Game 7 of the conference finals against Portland. Their plus-2.3 margin of victory in the playoffs is the lowest for any champion in the 16-team playoff era, albeit against a difficult slate of opponents.


RS point differential: +5.8
Adjusted PO differential: +9.7

By virtue of the biggest midseason trade for a champion in this span, bringing Rasheed Wallace to complete their starting five, the Pistons were legitimately a different team in the playoffs. After Detroit won just 54 games in the regular season, its defense cramped opponents as the Pistons took down a 61-win Indiana team in the conference finals and then upset the Lakers 4-1 in the Finals.


18. 2021-22 Golden State Warriors (+7.7)

RS point differential: +5.5
Adjusted PO differential: +9.9

Injuries to Curry and Green were big factors in the Warriors winning just 53 games that regular season — easily the fewest among their Finals appearances. Largely healthy in the playoffs, Golden State never went the distance in any series, and only a series of losses in potential closeout games (including by 39 points in Game 5 at Memphis) prevented the Warriors’ adjusted playoff rating from reaching double digits.


19. 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs (+7.5)

RS point differential: +5.4
Adjusted PO differential: +9.6

Despite winning a league-high 60 games, the 2002-03 Spurs had far and away the worst regular-season differential of their five championship teams. In the playoffs, San Antonio managed to win all four series in precisely six games, including a conference finals showdown with the Dallas team that boasted the league’s best differential.


RS point differential: +4.2
Adjusted PO differential: +10.4

Dallas’ point differential in the regular season was third-lowest among champions since 1998. The Mavericks impressed in the playoffs by sweeping the two-time defending champion Lakers without the benefit of home-court advantage, then taking down the Heat team that would win the next two titles in the Finals during the first year James and Bosh were in Miami.


RS point differential: +5.9
Adjusted PO differential: +8.6

No champion in recent history has survived a bigger early scare than the Bucks, who had to win Game 7 on the road in overtime to beat the Brooklyn Nets in the second round. Milwaukee’s most impressive stretch was winning the final four games of the Finals against Phoenix after going down 2-0.


22. 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers (+7.2)

RS point differential: +5.8
Adjusted PO differential: +8.6

Again, no, there are no asterisks here, but the Lakers’ bubble run featured the weakest competition in terms of regular-season point differential since 1998. There’s a case to be made that the Heat team the Lakers faced in the Finals was far stronger than that indicates, however, and the Lakers did go an impressive 16-5 en route to the title.


23. 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers (+6.4)

RS point differential: +4.7
Adjusted PO differential: +8.1

Coming off the 2009 championship, the Lakers won eight fewer games in the regular season and needed to go the full seven games to beat Boston in the Finals. While that Celtics team had knocked off two East powers (Cleveland and Orlando) along the way, Boston’s middling regular season hurts the Lakers’ rating.


RS point differential: + 3.3
Adjusted PO differential: + 8.9

Subjectively, the 2023 Nuggets feel as if they belong higher on the list. At 53-29, their record was on the low side for a champion (third worst in terms of winning percentage since 1998, with three of the bottom four coming since 2021) and their point differential was the worst of any title winner in that span. But Denver doesn’t get full credit for a 16-3 run through the playoffs with the sixth-best point differential (+8.3) in that span because the Nuggets faced three teams that reached the playoffs through the play-in tournament. By the time Denver went a combined 8-1 against them, the Lakers and Heat were more formidable than their middling regular seasons suggested.


25. 2005-06 Miami Heat (+5.7)

RS point differential: +3.9
Adjusted PO differential: +7.6

Look, somebody has to come in last of these rankings of the best of the best NBA teamsh over the past quarter century. After winning 59 games in Shaquille O’Neal’s first year in Miami before losing in the conference finals to Detroit, the 52-win Heat turned the tables on a Pistons team that won 64 games and knocked off the 60-win Mavericks in a Finals upset. Still, Miami’s plus-3.8 playoff point differential was second-worst among champions since 1998.


Where might this year’s champion rank?

In an era of parity, the 2023-24 Celtics stand apart for their domination of the regular season. Boston’s 64 wins tied the best winning percentage by any team since Houston in 2017-18, and the Celtics’ plus-11.3 point differential ranked second behind the 2016-17 Warriors in the period since 1998.

Due to injuries to opposing stars throughout the East playoffs this postseason, the difficulty of the competition Boston has faced has been historically easy. Still, the Celtics’ current plus-10.6 point differential in the playoffs ranks third over the past 26 seasons behind only the two champions with only one playoff loss, Golden State in 2017 and the 2001 Lakers.

Add it up and Boston’s plus-12.1 rating to date would rank fourth among champions since 1999.

Due to their midseason makeover, the Mavericks’ rating is inevitably less impressive. Their plus-2.2 point differential in the regular season would be the worst by any champion since the 1995 Rockets, and after a blowout loss in Game 1 of the Finals, Dallas is down to a plus-2.8 differential in the playoffs, ahead of only the 1999-00 Lakers in this span.

The flip side of that is that, like Houston in 1995, the Mavericks knocked off three teams that won at least 51 games en route to the Finals. Their path already rates as harder than any champion in the 16-team playoffs era, and it will look even tougher with at least four more games against the Celtics. So although Dallas would currently rank last on this list, if the Mavericks can manage to come back and beat Boston, they’d surely surpass at least the 2006 Heat in the process.

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