As the 2024 NFL offseason rolls on, the excitement around incoming rookies such as Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Marvin Harrison Jr. continues to grow. Many first-year players are expected to make an instant impact and quickly become stars. However, history tells us that not every highly drafted rookie will succeed.
It can take several years to judge a prospect-turned-pro accurately, and some teams may wish they’d done things differently when all rookie contracts are completed five years from now.
You can bet that the 2019 draft would have unfolded differently had franchises known what was ahead. Here, we’ll examine what things might have looked like by jumping back five years for an alternate-reality redraft.
We’ll approach this 2019 redraft as if teams had all the information of what transpired over the past five seasons. Factors like player performance, team fit, franchise trajectory and injuries were considered.
We’ll also use the post-free-agency, predraft order, meaning early deals like the Odell Beckham Jr. and Khalil Mack trades impacted the draft order, but draft-day deals that actually occurred did not. Instead, we’ll include some hypothetical draft-day trades of our own.
Original Pick: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The Arizona Cardinals took Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray first overall a year after using a first-round selection on Josh Rosen. There’s little reason for Arizona to deviate from that plan in our redraft, for a couple of reasons.
The biggest is that Murray has been an above-average starter for Arizona when healthy. The two-time Pro Bowler has yet to deliver a playoff victory, but he did get Arizona to the postseason in 2021. He’s also been a remarkable dual-threat and one of the toughest quarterbacks to defend when at his best.
While a torn ACL cost Murray time in both the 2022 and 2023 seasons, he performed well upon his return last year (89.4 QB rating)—at least when considering Arizona’s lackluster supporting cast.
Simply put, the Cardinals have to feel better about their quarterback situation than a lot of other teams do heading into the 2024 season.
The other factor to consider is that Arizona wasn’t quite bad enough in 2019 to get a crack at one of the top three quarterbacks—Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa—in 2020. Jordan Love was also in the 2020 class, but there’s no guarantee he’d develop into the same quarterback we saw last season if thrust into a starting role early.
The Cardinals know exactly what they have in Murray, and our guess is that they’d take him a second time if given the opportunity.
Original Pick: Nick Bosa, Edge, Ohio State
Like the Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers have good reasons to stick with their initial selection. Nick Bosa stormed into the league, recording nine sacks and 16 tackles for a loss in his first season. He was named Defensive Rookie of the Year for his efforts, and his inaugural campaign was only a sign of things to come.
A torn ACL cost Bosa most of the 2020 season, but he returned to form immediately. He led the league with 21 tackles for loss (tied with T.J. Watt) in 2021 and recorded 15.5 sacks in his bounce-back year.
Bosa has been a Pro Bowl defender in every one of his healthy seasons and was named Defensive Player of the Year in 2022. He remains one of the league’s most impactful players at any position, and he’s helped San Francisco become a perennial contender.
Going in a different direction here simply wouldn’t make sense, even though it will ultimately cost the 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel—who was originally taken in Round 2.
Samuel has been a fantastic playmaker for the 49ers, but San Francisco has since added more talent at the position. Brandon Aiyuk was taken in the first round of the 2020 draft, and the 49ers just used a first-round pick on Ricky Pearsall.
For as valuable as Samuel can be, receivers can be replaced. Top-tier pass-rushers, largely, cannot.
Original Pick: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama (by NY Jets)
This selection was originally used by the New York Jets, who drafted quarterback Sam Darnold the previous year. Knowing that Darnold never quite panned out in New York, the Jets instead trade down, acquiring additional 2020 draft capital that could be used to move up for a different signal-caller.
The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, move up from No. 9 in this alternate universe to secure wide receiver A.J. Brown. Originally a second-round pick of the Tennessee Titans, Brown has gone on to become one of the best receivers in the NFL.
Brown had one Pro Bowl campaign with the Titans before being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. In two seasons with the Eagles, the 26-year-old amassed 2,952 receiving yards, 18 touchdowns, two second-team All-Pro nods and two Pro Bowls.
Buffalo makes this move in an effort to speed up the development of quarterback Josh Allen. In the real world, Allen had his fair share of growing pains over his first two seasons and didn’t evolve into a Pro Bowl signal-caller until after Stefon Diggs was acquired in 2020.
In this reality, the Bills pair Allen with Brown instead, giving him a legitimate No. 1 receiver sooner and giving Buffalo a QB-WR tandem that could last far longer than the Allen-Diggs pairing.
Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans this offseason, whereas Brown just signed a three-year extension with the Eagles that runs through the 2029 season.
Original Pick: Clelin Ferrell, Edge, Clemson
In 2019, the Las Vegas Raiders—then still the Oakland Raiders—used the fourth pick on Clemson pass-rusher Clelin Ferrell. He never became a star for the Raiders and is already on his third NFL team.
However, Las Vegas did end up getting a premier pass-rusher in the 2019 draft, landing a gem in fourth-round Eastern Michigan product Maxx Crosby.
Crosby showed early glimpses of what he would become as a rookie, finishing his inaugural campaign with 10 sacks. The 26-year-old is now coming off his third straight Pro Bowl season, has recorded 27 sacks over the past two years and was a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year in both 2022 and 2023.
Perhaps just as importantly, Crosby has showcased the work ethic needed to be a future Hall of Famer.
“I got to spend a lot of time with the Cardinals and watching J.J. Watt at the end of his career,” Raiders assistant head coach Marvin Lewis said, per Aidan Champion of FanNation. “And the very last practice J.J. Watt had for the Arizona Cardinals, he looked like Maxx Cosby looks every day out here.”
While Crosby has a long way to go to catch Watt, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, he has become a foundational player for the Raiders—and they’re not going to let him get away in this redraft.
Original Pick: Devin White, LB, LSU
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers used the fifth overall pick in 2019 on former LSU linebacker Devin White. It was far from a bad decision, as White had several good seasons in Tampa and helped the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl in his sophomore campaign.
However, White was only a one-time Pro Bowler for the Bucs and fell out of favor late in 2023. He departed in free agency this offseason and has since signed with Philadelphia.
Instead of taking another swing at White in our redraft, the Buccaneers target positional value and land pass-rusher Montez Sweat. Originally selected 26th overall by the Washington Commanders, Sweat has since become a tremendously impactful edge-rusher.
Sweat didn’t get his second contract from Washington and was traded to the Chicago Bears before the 2023 deadline. However, he finally emerged as a Pro Bowl talent in Chicago after four solid campaigns with Washington.
In five seasons, Sweat has amassed 41.5 sacks, 51 tackles for loss and a whopping 153 quarterback pressures.
While Sweat hasn’t produced as many sacks as Josh Allen (45) or Brian Burns (46), his ability to set the edge and reliably defend the run has to be considered—unlike Allen and Burns, Sweat has never been credited with more than five missed tackles in a season.
Along with 2018 first-round pick Vita Vea and 2019 free-agent addition Shaquil Barrett, Sweat would help give Tampa a formidable defensive front for its Super Bowl push and for long after.
Original Pick: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
In 2019, the New York Giants used the sixth overall pick on Duke quarterback Daniel Jones. While Jones flashed enough in 2022 to earn a second contract from the Giants, he hasn’t exactly developed into a rising star.
Perhaps just as importantly, Jones’ presence in New York prevented the Giants from taking a chance on a quarterback like Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa in the 2020 draft. Both Herbert and Tagovailoa have become Pro Bowlers, while the jury is still out on Jones.
Instead of rolling the dice on Jones a second time in a redraft, the Giants take wide receiver Deebo Samuel. While Samuel might not be the best pure receiver to come out of the 2019 class, San Francisco’s second-round pick is a versatile and dynamic playmaker.
Valuable as both a receiver and a runner, Samuel has twice eclipsed 1,100 scrimmage yards and was a first-team All-Pro in 2021. He’d give the Giants another potent playmaker to pair with the equally versatile Saquon Barkley for the next five seasons.
Barkley was allowed to depart in 2024 free agency.
Having both Barkley and Samuel in the fold would give the Giants plenty of offensive options. While the challenge of finding Eli Manning’s successor would remain, New York would help ensure that the proverbial cupboard isn’t bare for its next signal-caller.
Original Pick: Josh Allen, Edge, Kentucky
The Jacksonville Jaguars used the seventh overall pick on Kentucky pass-rusher Josh Allen in 2019, and they’ll do so again in our redraft.
Allen hasn’t had a flawless NFL career, but when he’s at his best, he’s among the league’s top sack artists. The 26-year-old missed half of the 2020 season with a knee injury and produced just 17 sacks between 2020 and 2022. However, he was a rookie Pro Bowler and was even better in 2023.
This past season, Allen finished with 17.5 sacks, 17 tackles for loss and an impressive 46 quarterback pressures. That production ultimately landed Allen a five-year, $141.3 million extension after he was first given the franchise tag this offseason.
An argument could be made for passing on Allen to take Brian Burns, who has been ever-so-slightly more productive as a pure pass-rusher. However, Allen has been a tad more consistent as a run defender. He has also shown that he can thrive alongside teammates like Roy Robertson-Harris, Foyesade Oluokun and 2022 first-round pick Travon Walker while being a great franchise fit.
“We certainly value Josh’s leadership on the field, in the locker room and in the community,” general manager Trent Baalke said in a statement after Allen was given the franchise tag.
Marquee pass-rushers aren’t easy to find, and the Jaguars know they have a good one in Allen.
Original Pick: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
With the Raiders, Buccaneers and Jaguars kicking off a run on pass-rushers, the Detroit Lions decide to get in on the action in this redraft.
Detroit actually used the eighth overall pick on Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson. While Hockenson did have a Pro Bowl campaign with the Lions, he didn’t earn a place in their long-term plans and was traded to the rival Minnesota Vikings in 2022.
Burns was also traded, though he did stay with the Carolina Panthers through his rookie contract. Selected with the 16th overall pick, Burns went on to record two Pro Bowl campaigns with Carolina before being dealt to the Giants.
Shortly after being traded, Burns signed a new five-year, $141 million contract.
Detroit makes the pivot because it managed to field one of the NFL’s top offenses without Hockenson over the past year-plus. Hockenson is a terrific talent, but his production has proven to be replaceable. The Lions have been playing catch-up on the other side of the ball, and having a premier pass-rusher (46 sacks in five seasons) would give them a solid head start.
Burns would pair with 2022 first-round pick Aidan Hutchinson to give Detroit one of the best young pass-rushing duos in the NFL. Combined with an explosive offense and a stout run defense, that might have changed the course of Detroit’s latest showdown with the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Original Pick: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston (by Buffalo)
Fortune smiles on the Jets in our redraft. After trading back, they managed to land the player they actually took with the third overall selection.
Quinnen Williams has been a standout pretty much since he first took the field in New York. While his raw numbers as a rookie (28 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery) weren’t overly impressive, everyone could see the talent.
Williams has since emerged as a legitimate star. A first-team All-Pro in 2022 and a Pro Bowler in 2023, the 26-year-old is starting to make a case for being the top defensive tackle in the NFL—at least, following the retirement of Aaron Donald.
Reliable and disruptive against both the run and the pass, Williams is a difference-maker. He’s also working hard to become even more impactful.
“I feel like I do some things good in pass rush but just getting a bigger bag and more tools that I can use on Sundays,” Williams said, per Caroline Hendershot of the team’s official website. “That was really my main goal. I’ve been working on right side pass rushing and left side pass rushing so that I can be like a Swiss Army Knife.”
Williams got his second contract from the Jets last offseason, showing that he’s a core player whom New York would prefer to keep in-house. A run on edge-defenders allows the Jets to do exactly that.
Original Pick: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan (by Pittsburgh)
Back in 2019, the Denver Broncos traded this selection to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who snapped up Michigan linebacker Devin Bush. Denver then drafted Iowa tight end Noah Fant, who was eventually traded as part of the ill-fated Russell Wilson deal.
In a redraft, the Broncos instead stay put and snag Mississippi wideout DK Metcalf. Originally drafted in Round 2 by the Seattle Seahawks, Metcalf has gone on to be one of the more notable gems of the 2019 class.
Metcalf has reached 900 receiving yards in each of his five seasons. He’s also topped the coveted 1,000-yard mark three times and has been to two Pro Bowls. A very tough pass-catcher to corral downfield and on the perimeter, the 26-year-old could become the legitimate No. 1 target the Broncos have lacked.
Denver tried to land its No. 1 receiver when it took Jerry Jeudy in the first round of the 2020 draft. However, Jeudy has only shown occasional flashes and didn’t stick with the Broncos for his entire rookie deal. Jeudy was traded to the Cleveland Browns this offseason, as Denver renewed its search for a true top target.
Jeudy was selected 15th overall in 2020, ahead of both CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. In a redraft universe, though, neither Lamb nor Jefferson is likely to fall to Denver, so the Broncos flip the switch on a receiver a year early and grab Metcalf here.
Original Pick: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
The Cincinnati Bengals used the 11th overall pick in 2019 on Alabama offensive tackle Jonah Williams. The plan was for Williams to become Cincinnati’s left tackle of the future, but things didn’t unfold that way.
While Williams did help 2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow and the Bengals reach the Super Bowl in 2021, he never became the steady left tackle that Cincinnati needed. The Bengals signed Orlando Brown Jr. in 2023 free agency and moved Williams to right tackle.
In Williams’ final season as Cincinnati’s left tackle, he was responsible for 12 sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focus.
In a redraft, Cincinnati goes after a player who can provide more long-term value than Williams, who walked in 2024 free agency. Former Michigan pass-rusher Rashan Gary, selected one spot after Williams, didn’t exactly explode onto the scene with the Green Bay Packers. However, he’s become a consistent and impactful defender in recent years.
After tallying just 2.0 sacks as a rookie, Gary recorded 29.5 sacks over his next four seasons. He had nine sacks in 2023 to go with 30 quarterback pressures.
In Cincinnati, Gary would help forge a dangerous pass-rushing rotation alongside 2018 third-round pick Sam Hubbard and 2021 free-agent addition Trey Hendrickson.
While having Gary instead of Williams might not change the outcome of Super Bowl LVI, it would give Cincinnati the sort of long-term building block that Williams proved not to be.
Original Pick: Rashan Gary, Edge, Michigan
With Gary off the board, the Packers pivot to the other side of the football. In this scenario, Green Bay knows its window with quarterback Aaron Rodgers is beginning to close. Rodgers was named NFL MVP in both 2020 and 2021, but he struggled in 2022 and was traded to the Jets in 2023.
Adding Ohio State wideout Terry McLaurin—who was originally selected in Round 3 by the Washington Commanders—would help maximize Rodgers’ remaining time.
Green Bay came close to reaching the Super Bowl in 2020 but failed in a late comeback bid against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers in the NFL title game. Having another reliable pass-catcher to go with Davante Adams might have changed the outcome of that game.
While McLaurin might not be the biggest or the fastest receiver in the NFL, he’s been incredibly reliable. A savvy route-runner with reliable hands and terrific field awareness, McLaurin has managed to thrive despite some very inconsistent quarterback play.
McLaurin has topped 900 receiving yards in each of his pro seasons and has surpassed the 1,000-yard in each of the last four. He’d be the dependable No. 2 receiver Green Bay never quite got in Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Allen Lazard and could help soften the blow of Adams’ 2022 trade.
Knowing how things will unfold, the Packers use a redraft to do something they otherwise haven’t done since taking Javon Walker in 2002—they grab an offensive skill player in the first round.
Original Pick: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins didn’t earn his second contract with the Miami Dolphins. However, that had a lot more to do with the financial implications and the evolving defensive tackle market than it did with Wilkins’ on-field performance.
Wilkins departed Miami for the Raiders this offseason on a four-year, $110 million deal. Given the Dolphins’ need to extend Jaylen Waddle and (eventually) Tua Tagovailoa, Wilkins was simply too pricey to retain.
None of this means that Wilkins was a bad selection at 13th overall. The Clemson product never made a Pro Bowl with the Dolphins, but he was an incredibly impactful and durable defender during his five-year stint.
Wilkins missed a pair of games in 2020 on the reserve/COVID-19 list but never otherwise missed a game for Miami. He spent much of his early career as a disruptive run-stuffer but showed he could be a potent interior pass-rusher in 2023.
This past season, Wilkins tallied nine sacks and 30 quarterback pressures to go with 65 total tackles. He has amassed an impressive 355 total tackles in five seasons, which is a lot for an interior defender.
With an opportunity to do it over, the Dolphins simply take Wilkins for a second time—though they might ultimately try trading him before his Miami tenure comes to an end.
Original Pick: Chris Lindstrom, IOL, Boston College
Like the Dolphins, the Atlanta Falcons stick with their original selection from 2019. Unlike Miami, Atlanta still employs its first-round selection from that season.
Former Boston College lineman Chris Lindstrom failed to make much of an initial impact, though that’s because a broken foot limited him to five games as a rookie. He was a full-time starter by Year 2 and has since developed into one of the league’s best interior linemen.
Over the past three seasons, Lindstrom has allowed a total of only five sacks, according to Pro Football Focus. He played no fewer than 99 percent of the offensive snaps during games in which he appeared over that span.
Linstrom made the Pro Bowl in both 2022 and 2023 and was rewarded with a five-year, $102.5 million extension last offseason. The 27-year-old has justified his draft status with remarkable technique and consistency, and he’s arguably surpassed it with a strong work ethic.
“What he brings to the table, unlike anybody I’ve ever been around, is his level of effort on each play,” former Falcons offensive coordinator Dave Ragone said in January, per Daniel Flick of FanNation.
Lindstrom has become an elite player and one of Atlanta’s top franchise leaders. While offensive tackles tend to be more valued than their interior counterparts, Lindstrom has shown enough to justify being the first lineman off the board in our 2019 redraft.
Original Pick: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
The Commanders used the 15th overall pick in 2019 on former Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who tragically died when struck by a vehicle in 2022.
Haskins lasted just two seasons in Washington and made just 13 starts before being released in 2021. However, his presence on the roster played a role in the Commanders taking pass-rusher Chase Young second overall in 2020 instead of a quarterback like Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa.
In a redraft, Washington instead selects Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson, who was originally drafted eighth overall by the Lions.
The Commanders had a need for a quality tight end in 2019, as Jeremy Sprinkle went on to lead the position group with a mere 241 receiving yards and a touchdown that season. Washington did eventually find a capable tight end by signing Logan Thomas in 2020. However, Thomas was more good than great and had his fair share of injury issues in Washington.
The Commanders signed Zach Ertz this offseason, and Thomas has since made his way to San Francisco.
Hockenson has been a great tight end when healthy and has made the Pro Bowl in both Detroit and Minnesota. While he’s currently working his way back from ACL and MCL tears, the 26-year-old should still have a bright future ahead of him.
Adding Hockenson here would help stabilize a key position for the Commanders and allow them to come away from the draft with a playmaker despite missing out on Terry McLaurin.
Original Pick: Brian Burns, Edge, Florida State
The Panthers used the 16th overall pick on former Florida State pass-rusher Brian Burns. While Carolina might take Burns again in a redraft, he’s off the board. Instead, Carolina pivots to defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.
Simmons, originally taken 19th overall by the Titans, has become one of the league’s better defensive linemen. He missed part of his rookie season while recovering from a torn ACL but played nine games that season and has been an impact defender ever since.
A Pro Bowler in 2021 and 2022, Simmons has consistently made plays in both the running and passing games. The 26-year-old landed on injured reserve this past season and wasn’t named to the Pro Bowl, but he still had an impressive 2023 campaign.
In 12 games last year, Simmons tallied 44 tackles, 5.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. He also scored his first NFL touchdown as an eligible receiver in Week 11.
Carolina added its own Pro Bowl defensive lineman by taking Derrick Brown seventh overall in the 2020 draft. Brown made his first Pro Bowl in 2023 and received a four-year, $96 million extension this offseason. The Panthers are clearly happy with their 2020 first-round pick.
Taking Simmons in a 2019 redraft, however, would allow the Panthers to target a different top-tier prospect—perhaps a receiver like CeeDee Lamb or Justin Jefferson, or perhaps a quarterback like Jordan Love—a year later.
Original Pick: Dexter Lawrence II, DT, Clemson
The Giants got this selection from the Browns in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade. They used the 17th overall pick on former Clemson defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, and they’ll do so again in a redraft.
Like Jeffery Simmons, Lawrence is a two-time Pro Bowler and one of the top defensive tackles in the league. In five seasons with the Giants, he has amassed 266 tackles, 21 sacks and four forced fumbles.
Over the past two seasons—both Pro Bowl campaigns—Lawrence recorded 121 tackles, 12 sacks, 14 tackles for loss and five passes defended.
New York rewarded Lawrence with a four-year, $87.5 million contract extension last offseason. While Lawrence has gotten his lucrative second contract and has started to receive regular national attention, he isn’t quite satisfied with his development.
“I’ve just got to keep working, working on my weaknesses and getting better with my strengths,” Lawrence said on June 2, per Patricia Traina of FanNation. “…Just speed rushes–things like that. Using my hands a little more in my rushes–those are some things I’m working on right now.”
The best could still be yet to come for Lawrence, who has already established himself as one of the faces of the Giants’ franchise. New York doesn’t pass on its opportunity to secure him here.
Original Pick: Garrett Bradbury, IOL, North Carolina State
The Vikings used the 18th overall pick on center Garrett Bradbury, and while the North Carolina State product has developed into a solid center, he had some early struggles, especially in pass protection.
Bradbury was responsible for 12 penalties and nine sacks allowed—a lot for an interior lineman—over his first two seasons, according to Pro Football Focus. His uneven level of play led to Minnesota declining Bradbury’s fifth-year option, though he did eventually land a three-year, $15.8 million extension.
Elgton Jenkins, selected in the second round by the Packers, has been a much more reliable lineman. His versatility has also been a major asset, as the two-time Pro Bowler has played both tackle spots, left guard and center for Green Bay.
Jenkins signed a four-year, $68 million extension with the Packers late in the 2022 season.
While taking Jenkins in a redraft might not truly solve Minnesota’s need for a starting center, it would give the Vikings a Pro Bowl-caliber lineman who can line up at multiple positions.
Simply put, the Vikings can snap up Jenkins here and determine the best starting spot for him after the fact. Minnesota threw a few darts at the offensive line in the years after 2019, using a 2020 second-round pick on Ezra Cleveland, a 2021 first-round pick on Christian Darrisaw and a 2022 second-round pick on Ed Ingram.
Original Pick: Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
The Titans snagged defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons with the 19th pick in 2019. However, Simmons went much earlier in this redraft, so Tennessee instead pivots to defensive tackle Ed Oliver.
Oliver, originally selected ninth overall by the Bills, has largely been overshadowed by draft mates like Dexter Lawrence, Quinnen Williams and Simmons. He’s never made a Pro Bowl in Buffalo, but he’s been a solid, if sometimes underappreciated, defender for the Bills.
Buffalo gave Oliver a four-year, $68 million extension last offseason.
While Oliver didn’t regularly start as a rookie, he’s grown into a foundational role for the Bills since then. He’s started every game in which he’s appeared since the beginning of the 2020 season, and he’s coming off arguably his best season as a pro.
Oliver finished his 2023 campaign with 51 total tackles, 9.5 sacks, 19 quarterback pressures and three passes defended. Some players perform their best in contract years, but Oliver used his new deal as motivation.
“When you get paid and people are saying, `Why you pay the guy?′ it kind of does something to you,” Oliver said in December, per John Wawrow of the Associated Press.
While Oliver hasn’t received the accolades other members of a deep 2019 defensive-line class have gotten, the 26-year-old has done plenty to justify his first-round draft status and his second contract. Tennessee should be quite pleased to have ended up with Simmons, but Oliver is a fine consolation prize in this redraft.
Original Pick: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa by Denver)
In 2019, the Steelers traded all the way up from No. 20 to No. 10 in order to secure Michigan linebacker Devin Bush. It was an expensive move for an off-ball linebacker—one that cost Pittsburgh its 2019 second-round pick and a 2020 third-rounder—and one the Steelers likely regret in retrospect.
Bush was mostly fine with the Steelers, though he had his fifth-year option declined and is now on his third team in six years. In four seasons with Pittsburgh, the 25-year-old started 48 games and compiled 323 tackles and four sacks. However, he missed a large chunk of the 2020 season with a torn ACL and too often had issues in coverage and with missed tackles (14 as a rookie).
Though Pittsburgh has a chance to land Bush much lower in this redraft, they instead pivot to former LSU’s Devin White. Originally selected by the Buccaneers fifth overall, White has easily had the more impressive pro career of the two linebackers.
While White didn’t get a second contract from Tampa, he was an instrumental part of its 2020 Super Bowl run. The 26-year-old also made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and started 75 games for the Buccaneers.
White is now set to play for the Eagles, and he left Tampa with an impressive 566 total tackles, 23 sacks, 21 passes defended, three interceptions and six forced fumbles. Taking him here gives the Steelers the game-changing linebacker they had hoped to be getting in Bush.
Original Pick: Darnell Savage, S, Maryland (by Green Bay)
The Packers originally traded up to this spot to select safety Darnell Savage. In this redraft, the Seahawks stay put and select Alabama running back Josh Jacobs instead.
Jacobs was originally taken 24th overall by the Raiders
While using a first-round pick on Jacobs a year after using a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny may seem odd, there are a couple of factors to consider. For one, the Seahawks know in this alternate reality that Penny never had a fruitful career for the franchise.
Due to injuries and inconsistent play, Penny showed flashes but tallied just 1,951 rushing yards in five seasons with Seattle.
Secondly, Peter Carroll was still the head coach of the Seahawks in 2019, and he loved to pound the ball with the run. Chris Carson was a 1,100-yard rusher in 2018 and went on to rush for 1,230 yards in 2019. Pairing him with Jacobs, who amassed 1,150 rushing yards and 1,316 scrimmage yards as a rookie, would give Seattle arguably the best backfield duo in the league.
The Seahawks narrowly lost to the Packers in the divisional round of the 2019 postseason and just might have made a deeper push with an improved ground game.
Seattle also knows that Carson’s career peaked in 2019 because of injuries. He was hampered by a foot injury in 2020 and retired following a 2021 neck injury. While consistency has been somewhat of an issue for Jacobs, he led the lead in both rushing and scrimmage yards in 2022.
Original Pick: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State (by Philadelphia)
The Baltimore Ravens traded out of the No. 22 spot in 2019 so that the Eagles could move up and grab offensive tackle Andre Dillard. Baltimore then grabbed Oklahoma receiver Marquise Brown with the 25th pick.
Philadelphia isn’t trading up for Dillard, knowing that he’ll rarely see the field in an Eagles uniform. Therefore, the Ravens simply take Brown here.
While Brown never developed into a No. 1 receiver for the Ravens and was traded after only three seasons, his difference-making speed played a role in Lamar Jackson’s first MVP campaign in 2019. As a rookie, Brown ranked second on the team in receiving yards after star tight end Mark Andrews.
Brown also had his lone 1,000-yard season in 2021, which was enough to net the Ravens a first-round pick for Brown and a third-round selection in a 2022 draft-day deal.
Of course, in this alternate reality, the Cardinals’ move to reunite Brown and Kyler Murray in 2022 probably doesn’t happen.
However, Brown’s production has out-paced that of Ravens 2021 first-round pick Rashod Bateman over the past three seasons, so if we’re playing the “what-if” game, simply keeping Brown for the duration of his rookie contract could make plenty of sense.
Baltimore considers that approach and flips the switch on Brown following an early run on wide receivers.
Original Pick: Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State (by Houston)
The Eagles don’t trade up for Andre Dillard, but they still move up in our redraft. Here, they deal with the Houston Texans to make C.J. Gardner-Johnson the first defensive back off the board.
Gardner-Johnson, originally taken in the fourth round by the New Orleans Saints, actually made his way to Philadelphia in a 2022 trade. He flourished as a multi-faceted safety and nickel back that season and helped the Eagles reach the Super Bowl.
In 2022, Gardner-Johnson recorded six interceptions and allowed an opposing passer rating of only 78.4 in coverage. The 26-year-old returned to the Eagles this offseason following a one-year stint with the Lions that was largely negated by a torn pectoral.
Gardner-Johnson is back on a three-year, $27 million contract that shows Philadelphia values his services. Here, the Eagles ensure that he simply begins his career with the franchise instead of waiting to acquire him twice.
The Eagles also leapfrog the Raiders to make it happen. Las Vegas used the 24th pick on Josh Jacobs, who is already off the board, but they also took Mississippi State safety Johnathan Abram 27th overall back in 2019. Abram was waived in his fourth season, and the Raiders would probably prefer to pivot to a different defensive back with a do-over.
Philadelphia ensures that Las Vegas can’t pivot to Gardner-Johnson.
Original Pick: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
With Josh Jacobs and C.J. Gardner-Johnson both off the board, the Raiders use the 24th pick on Notre Dame defensive back Julian Love in this redraft. Jacobs was the pick here, and safety Johnathan Abram was the pick at No. 27 back in 2019.
Love, who played cornerback at Notre Dame, has evolved into one of the league’s more versatile defensive backs. Originally selected in the fourth round by the Giants, the 26-year-old has since shown the ability to play deep, in the box, on the perimeter or in the slot.
While Abram showed flashes as a physical box safety, he was never truly reliable for the Raiders in coverage. Love, who made his first Pro Bowl in 2023, has been much more consistent in five seasons with the Giants and Seahawks.
Love was a part-time player in his rookie season but appeared in 15 games. His role grew over the next two years, and he became a full-time starter in 2022. In 2023, his first season with Seattle, Love recorded 123 tackles, 10 passes defended and four interceptions. He allowed an opposing passer rating of only 82.2 in coverage.
The Raiders used a 2021 second-round pick on Tre’Von Moehrig, who eventually supplanted Abram at strong safety. Love’s positional versatility would allow Las Vegas to find a role for him, even after Moehrig’s ascension to the starting lineup.
Original Pick: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma (by Baltimore)
The Texans trade back two spots and land the player they initially took at No. 23, Alabama State offensive lineman Tytus Howard.
Howard hasn’t been a flawless player for the Texans. He struggled at guard in 2021 and has landed on injured reserve in three different seasons. However, he’s been a fairly solid right tackle when healthy. In 2022, for example, he started all 17 games and was responsible for nine penalties but only three sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Texans signed Howard to a three-year, $56 million extension last offseason.
Houston could give some consideration to other offensive tackles from this class, notably, Jonah Williams and Jawaan Taylor. However, both of them have had their fair share of consistency issues at the pro level.
Taylor, for example, has had a serious problem with penalties. He helped the Kansas City Chiefs win another Super Bowl this past season, but he was as much of a liability as a boon.
According to Pro Football Focus, Taylor was responsible for five sacks allowed and 20 penalties in 2023.
Howard’s injuries are a concern—he missed 10 games with hand and knee injuries this past season. However, Houston opts for familiarity here, knowing that the 28-year-old fits with its personnel and is a strong complement to starting left tackle and 2019 trade acquisition Laremy Tunsil.
Original Pick: Montez Sweat, Edge, Mississippi State (by Washington)
The Indianapolis Colts traded the 26th pick to the Commanders in 2019 so that Washington could move up and take pass-rusher Montez Sweat. They stay put here and give some serious thought to drafting Washington State quarterback Gardner Minshew.
The Colts now know that Andrew Luck’s surprise August retirement is looming.
Ultimately, though, Indy decides to get in on the early receiver run and take Toledo receiver Diontae Johnson. A third-round pick of the Steelers, Johnson has gone on to be a very capable receiver with one Pro Bowl campaign on his resume.
In five seasons with Pittsburgh, Johnson has amassed 4,363 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns on 391 receptions. He topped 1,100 yards in 2021, and it’s worth noting that he was saddled with subpar quarterback play over the last two years.
The Colts used a second-round pick on Ohio State receiver Parris Campbell in 2019, though Campbell never emerged as a star in Indy. Johnson has flashed No. 1 receiver potential, and pairing him with 2020 second-round pick Michael Pittman Jr. would be logical.
A lack of reliable receiver depth behind Pittman and an aging T.Y. Hilton was an issue during Indianapolis’ playoff run with Philip Rivers in 2020. The same issue presented itself as the Colts fell short with Carson Wentz in 2021 and Matt Ryan in 2022.
Grabbing Johnson here would ensure that the Colts have a potent receiver tandem, both during their run with rotating veteran quarterbacks and to help set the stage for 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson.
Original Pick: Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
The Raiders received this selection in the Amari Cooper trade and used it on safety Johnathan Abram. With Las Vegas getting its defensive back at No. 24 in this redraft, it pivots to the offensive line here.
Jonah Williams, originally selected 11th overall by Cincinnati, didn’t work out as the Bengals’ long-term left tackle. However, he impressed as a strong run blocker while playing right tackle in 2023, even if his pass protection was still a liability.
Williams was responsible for five penalties and eight sacks allowed in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Raiders have spent much of the past five seasons trying to find the right offensive-line combination. Jermaine Eluemunor was a serviceable right tackle over the past two years but departed for the Giants in free agency. Las Vegas is now likely to hold a competition between Thayer Munford Jr. and rookie Delmar Glaze.
Williams has had his fair share of ups and downs in pass protection. However, he’s been fairly durable since missing his rookie season following shoulder surgery. Over the past four seasons, Williams started 59 games. He played 100 percent of the offensive snaps in games he started over the past three seasons.
While Williams has never become an elite tackle and moved on to the Cardinals this offseason, he could at least provide Las Vegas with some stability along the line. Pairing him with 2018 first-round pick Kolton Miller would give the Raiders a solid young tackle tandem.
Original Pick: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
The Los Angeles Chargers used the 28th overall pick on defensive tackle Jerry Tillery. While Tillery flashed some promise as an interior pass-rusher, he was never a consistent starter for the Chargers and was waived during the 2022 season.
In a redraft, the Chargers bolster their secondary by snagging Jamel Dean, who was originally taken by the Buccaneers in Round 3.
Dean has since gone on to be one of the top corners from the 2019 class. He’s appeared in 70 games with 51 starts in five seasons and allowed an opposing passer rating below 90.0 in four of those campaigns. Injuries have been a bit of an issue, as Dean has never played a full 17-game season, but Tampa has valued his contributions.
“When he’s healthy and on the field he’s a great asset for us,” head coach Todd Bowles said, per Kyle Burger of WFTS Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers rewarded Dean with a four-year, $52 million contract extension in 2023.
Grabbing Dean here would give Los Angeles a cornerstone player in its secondary, which has been a problem area in recent seasons. Since 2019, the Chargers have ranked 20th or worse in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
Pairing Dean with 2021 second-round pick Asante Samuel Jr. would give L.A. a solid young cornerback tandem and might just prevent its ill-fated 2022 signing of J.C. Jackson.
Original Pick: L.J. Collier, DE, TCU
The Seahawks got the 29th pick from the Chiefs in the Frank Clark trade. They used it to make a very curious decision.
TCU’s L.J. Collier was a one-year starter at defensive end who was much more of an edge-setter than a pass-rusher. Ends who don’t effectively rush the passer can be valuable, but they don’t often justify a first-round selection.
Collier did little to justify his draft status. He made just 16 starts in four seasons with the Seahawks He landed with Arizona in 2023 but played just one game before a biceps injury ended his season. In 46 combined NFL games, Collier has logged just 42 tackles and three sacks.
In this re-draft, the Seahawks instead take defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones, who joined the franchise as a free agent last offseason. Originally a third-round pick of the Broncos, Jones has been a very solid defensive contributor, if not an outright star.
In 73 career appearances with Denver and Seattle, Jones has recorded 182 total tackles, 33 tackles for loss, 26.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. He had 4.5 sacks and 20 quarterback pressures for the Seahawks this past season.
Over the past couple of seasons, defensive tackle has become a premium position in the NFL, and interior defenders who can get after opposing passers are especially valuable. Seattle uses its redraft opportunity to add Jones four years early.
Original Pick: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia (by NY Giants)
Green Bay originally traded this selection—which was acquired from the Saints in a 2018 draft trade—in its move up for safety Darnell Savage. Seattle then flipped the pick to the Giants, who took Georgia cornerback Deandre Baker.
While Savage never made a Pro Bowl with the Packers and moved on to the Jaguars this offseason, he was far from a bust. The 26-year-old started 69 regular-season games for Green Bay and another seven postseason contests. His play could be inconsistent, but Savage had strong stretches as both a run-defender and a coverage safety.
Savage allowed an opposing passer rating above 100.0 in each of the past three seasons but also allowed 22 or fewer receptions in three of his five campaigns. He recorded 32 passes defended, nine interceptions and 225 solo tackles during his time in Green Bay.
Positional versatility has also been one of Savage’s strengths, as Jaguars coach Doug Pederson recently noted.
“His nickel coverage ability inside, his ability to blitz, he’s a good tackler, he’s a willing tackler, he’s a pretty cover guy, all things that we were looking for at that position. He’s got the versatility to play multiple spots on defense,” Pederson said, per Demetrius Harvey of The Florida Times-Union.
The Packers opted to replace Savage with free-agent Xavier McKinney this offseason. However, taking the Maryland product again in the redraft gives Green Bay five solid seasons of safety play.
Original Pick: Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington (by Atlanta)
The Falcons originally traded into this spot for offensive lineman Kaleb McGary, moving up from pick No. 45. We have the Los Angeles Rams trading out again in our redraft, only, it’s the Panthers moving up from No. 47 for a player and the fifth-year option.
Specifically, we have the Panthers jumping the New England Patriots for quarterback Gardner Minshew. The 2019 season ended up being the last for Tom Brady with the Patriots, and it was also the final run with Cam Newton—who was limited to two games by a Lisfranc injury—in Carolina.
From 2019 to the Panthers’ selection of Bryce Young in 2023, finding quarterback consistency was a significant challenge. Carolina tried leaning on the likes of Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield with underwhelming results. Snagging Minshew, originally a sixth-round pick of the Jaguars, would stop the quarterback carousel.
While Minshew hasn’t become a star at the pro level, he’s been more than serviceable when given the opportunity. His career 90.2 quarterback rating is solid, and Minshew made the Pro Bowl as an alternate this past season with the Colts.
Carolina may still go on to draft Young in this alternate universe—or perhaps pivot to reigning Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud. However, having Minshew on the fifth-year option in 2023 would prevent the Panthers from forcing its next quarterback onto the field too early.
Original Pick: N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
The Patriots used the final pick in the first round on N’Keal Harry, a receiver who has produced just 714 receiving yards as a pro. In this redraft, they pivot to Iowa tight end Noah Fant.
There are a couple of reasons to target Fant here. For one, Rob Gronkowski’s first retirement came in March 2019, leaving New England with little at the tight end position for Tom Brady’s final season with the franchise. Ben Watson led the position group with just 173 yards in 2019.
Secondly, the Patriots have struggled to field offensive playmakers since Brady departed for the Buccaneers. New England found a capable tight end when it signed Hunter Henry in 2021, but never got a whole lot out of fellow 2021 acquisition Jonnu Smith.
Fant was originally drafted by the Broncos 20th overall and was traded to Seattle in 2022 as part of the Russell Wilson deal. He’s never been a Pro Bowler—unlike former college teammate T.J. Hockenson—but Fant has been a capable receiving tight end.
Through five seasons with the Seahawks and Broncos, the 26-year-old has averaged 50 receptions and 561 yards per year.
Taking Fant here would give New England a viable starter for a couple of seasons and a strong tight end tandem after the addition of Henry. That might not be enough for 2021 first-round pick Mac Jones to succeed as New England’s next quarterback, but it would be a far better return on investment than what the Patriots got from Harry.
*Contract information via Spotrac. Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.