The Boston Celtics dominated most of Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals on Friday, winning 107-89, hitting nine more threes than the Dallas Mavericks, and also winning the assists battle 23-9.
After a historic regular season—and with the Celtics at home—the result maybe shouldn’t have been all that surprising.
But it also doesn’t mean the series is over. After all, Dallas eliminated the West’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in six games earlier this postseason. And then it took down Anthony Edwards who many have called “the next face of the NBA.”
The Mavs aren’t done, and you can bet several of their role players will have better performances going forward.
Below, some of those potential breakouts are identified, as well as other bold predictions for Game 2 and the rest of the NBA Finals.
By game score (“a rough measure of a player’s productivity for a single game”), Kyrie Irving had his worst individual performance of the postseason in Game 1.
He was 6-of-19 from the field for 12 points, turned it over three times, totaled just two assists and was minus-19 in 37 minutes.
And, of course, the Celtics had a lot to do with that. He was defended by Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, both of whom had overwhelmingly positive marks in defensive estimated plus-minus, for the overwhelming majority of his possessions.
But Irving’s poor shooting wasn’t entirely a product of his opponent. Thursday, he went 2-of-8 on attempts the league’s tracking cameras deemed open or wide open.
Even with the bad shooting night, Irving is averaging 22.2 points and 2.5 threes, while shooting 40.2 percent from deep in the playoffs. And Dallas faced two of the top four defenses in the league in the second and third rounds.
Boston’s personnel may be better tailored to frustrate Irving than those other teams, but he’ll shoot better in at least one of these upcoming games, shift momentum and help the Mavs get a win.
There’s a pretty good argument for the Celtics to bring Kristaps Porziņģis off the bench for a second straight game. They’re 10-1 in playoff games started by Al Horford this year, and Porziņģis’ energy, shotmaking and rim protection juiced the second unit and spearheaded the run that gave Boston a 17-point lead after one quarter.
But there’s an even better argument to start your five best players, as the Celtics did whenever Porziņģis was healthy in the regular season.
Opening the game with the big man would help Boston get off to a quicker start, particularly on the offensive end. And though Horford has started the Celtics’ last 11 games, they’ve still spent the bulk of this campaign with Porziņģis in that spot.
That’s led to plenty of chemistry between him, White, Holiday, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The same goes for Horford with Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser.
So, even though the lineup change worked just fine in Game 1, Boston should—and for purposes of today’s exercise, we’ll say “will”—put KP back in the starting five for Game 2.
Luka Dončić had 30 points and 10 rebounds in Game 1, but the Celtics held him to just one assist (and only seven assist opportunities).
In his 442 regular and postseason games with at least 20 minutes, Luka’s never totaled fewer dimes. And taking his playmaking off the table stymied the Mavs’ offense.
The 95.2 points per 100 possessions Dallas scored in Game 1 was their sixth lowest mark in this entire campaign (regular season included).
Given his track record, both of those numbers feel like pretty extreme anomalies, even against a defense as good as Boston’s.
Luka and the Mavs will find different ways to attack in Game 2, whether it’s with the occasional post-up or against a closing defender recovering after a Kyrie drive.
At some point in this series, Dončić will adjust to the Celtics scheme and move into a tie for eighth all time in career postseason triple-doubles.
Though if it happens in Game 2, it still won’t be enough to get the Mavs over the hump. That contest will be more competitive, but the Celtics will be up 2-0 headed to Dallas.
Kyrie wasn’t the only star with an off shooting night in Game 1. The Celtics’ Jayson Tatum was 6-of-16 from the field for 16 points. Brown (22) and Porziņģis (20) both topped him in the scoring column.
And after Thursday, Brown is now Boston’s leading scorer since the start of the conference finals at 28.2 points per game.
Don’t expect that to hold, though.
Tatum’s 27.4 points aren’t far behind in that stretch, and six is far from an insurmountable gap for this last series, especially one of the most prolific young playoff scorers in NBA history.
Tatum was 26 years and 95 days old for Game 1. Through that contest, he now has 2,616 career playoff points. Only Kobe Bryant had more through the same age.
And though his shooting efficiency may be a bit off right now (he’s shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 29.9 percent from deep this postseason), that may forecast a dramatic shift back to career norms as much as a prolonged drought.
Tatum is due for some big scoring (and hot shooting) nights. A couple are on the way between now and the end of this series, and they’ll help him finish the Finals as its leading scorer.
Game 1 should not be indicative of how competitive this series will be. The stretch in the third quarter, when Dallas cut the lead to eight, gave us a better glimpse of what the Mavericks can do.
More stretches like that will happen, and we’ll get a few close games.
This is a classic “best player vs. best team series,” and Luka isn’t going down without a fight.
Boston just has too much firepower (seven different players hit at least two threes in Game 1), too many switchable defenders and too much versatility from their bigs for Dallas. There’s a reason the Celtics were near the top of several all-time leaderboards when this season ended. And they’re going to cap this historic run with a championship.
From there, predicting a Finals MVP for their best player isn’t much of a stretch, but Brown did just take that honor last round. Tatum’s edge in rebounding and playmaking (he leads the team in both assists and boards per game this postseason), will ensure that won’t happen this time around.