Boston have taken the long road to be on the verge of an NBA title while Dallas have been overnight successes in comparison after radically rejigging their roster over the past year.
The Kyrie Irving trade at the deadline last year was initially a failure for the Mavericks but it has all come together for them well to make the NBA Finals and despite losing the opening match of the series, all is not lost given they dropped game one against OKC and the Clippers.
For the Celtics, they have been slowly building to this point ever since they fleeced Brooklyn in their blockbuster trade more than a decade ago with the payoff from that haul, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, getting them close to the title previously but now on the brink of finally breaking the franchise’s 16-year title drought.
After their game-one cakewalk, the question for the remainer of the finals is whether Boston’s team game can continue to dominate the Mavs’ reliance on Luka Doncic and Irving.
For the other 28 teams, they are already planning, tinkering and firing coaches in a bid to get to the promised land.
Team by team, here’s how each franchise can plot a path to the trophy.
Eastern Conference
New York Knicks (50-32): After running out of puff in the Eastern semis, they need more depth. Retaining breakout star Isaiah Hartenstein won’t come cheap so fellow centre Mitchell Robinson could be on the trade block. Jalen Brunson can lead this team deep into the playoffs so they don’t necessarily need a second star like Donovan Mitchell or Paul George just yet, as nice as either of them would be, so they are likely to keep their powder dry for when even bigger free agents have itchy feet.
Milwaukee Bucks (49-33): It’s a make or break season with Giannis Antetokounmpo after year one of the Damian Lillard experiment failed even after Doc Rivers was brought in as coach mid-season. The Bucks are getting old but there is little trade value in ageing third wheel Khris Middleton these days.
Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34): There is a fair chance Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland will be traded away in the off-season and centre Jarrett Allen is likely to be surplus to requirements. They’ve already punted coach JB Bickerstaff so there is change aplenty in Ohio.
Orlando Magic (47-35): The Magic need to add shooting, whether that’s a high-profile free agent like Klay Thompson or a younger guard, it was their weakness in the playoffs in supporting their young franchise cornerstone Paolo Banchero.
Indiana Pacers (47-35): After their run to the Eastern Conference finals with everything breaking right for them, the Pacers need to realise they are still a long way from being contenders. Top priority is re-signing Pascal Siakam, which seems a given, and then they need to add a top-level wing player to help Tyrese Haliburton. They’d love to get Paul George back to Indianapolis but that won’t be happening.
Philadelphia 76ers (47-35): With Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and plenty of cap space, the path is clear to get a third star – Paul George would be the best option but if they can’t land him, 76ers president Daryl Morey will likely wait until mid-season to make a major move.
Miami Heat (46-36): Jimmy Butler’s future is looking a little cloudy and the Heat seem reluctant to offer him anything substantial to stick around given he is in his mid 30s and misses a lot of matches. They need to get Mitchell from the Cavs but their trade offer is unlikely to be as enticing as other deals put forward.
(Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Chicago Bulls (39-43): They have been stuck in mid-table mediocrity for way too long. They should try to trade centre Nikola Vucevic and there’s little point offering another veteran star in DeMar DeRozan a long-term deal given he will only make them too good to do a proper rebuild.
Atlanta Hawks (36-46): Two All-Star guards enter the summer, only one will remain. Dejounte Murray and Trae Young don’t mesh, on or off the court, so the Hawks will field offers for each of them, trade whichever one gets the best haul then say they always wanted to keep the other one.
Brooklyn Nets (32-50): There is no more complicated outlook among the 30 franchises than this squad which has one more year of Ben Simmons’ albatross contract on the books, their draft picks going to Houston and only Mikal Bridges on the books who is a building block for the future. Nic Claxton is a free agent but the Nets should offer him a lucrative deal to keep him.
Toronto Raptors (25-57): They are not quite tanking but they are rebuilding after jettisoning Fred VanVleet, Siakam and OG Anunoby in the past 12 months. They will re-sign Immanuel Quickley and extend Scottie Barnes to be the core of their next playoff team in a year or two, or three.
Charlotte Hornets (21-61): The Hornets have made a rare wise choice by hiring Charles Lee as their next coach to replace Steve Clifford after the Boston assistant has been a key part of the Celtics’ title charge. Keeping LaMelo Ball on the court is Charlotte’s main hope to rise up the standings but if he can’t shake off his injury woes in the next season, they should consider shipping him out before his trade value really plummets.
Washington Wizards (15-67): If you believe in miracles, this franchise can be a title contender within the next decade. The Wizards have the No.2 pick in this year’s draft but there is little top-end talent on the board so they need to spend another couple of years being terrible under interim now permanent coach Brian Keefe and hope the lottery odds fall their way to get a game-changing player.
Detroit Pistons (14-68): Unlike the Wizards, they at least have a young star on the books in Cade Cunningham but little else that they can build around. They have also struck out repeatedly in the draft and coach Monty Williams doesn’t seem too invested in the rebuild even though the Pistons invested an enormous amount to get him to Michigan.
Western Conference
Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25): They’re oh so close yet still a fair way away from making the leap. After topping the West in the regular season, they were shown to be either still too young or a major piece away and Josh Giddey could be traded, a long with a boat-load of their draft picks, to bring in a big fish.
Denver Nuggets (57-25): They just need to keep their squad together and perhaps bolster their depth. Michael Porter jnr is an unreliable third option behind Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray so he could be cashed in for a couple of consistent role players in the off-season.
Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26): The big question in Minnesota is whether they will continue their upward trajectory as Anthony Edwards’ career does likewise or do they need to move on from Karl-Anthony Towns? They were shown up in the Western finals by Dallas but they will likely stick solid with this squad.
LA Clippers (51-31): It’s now or never for the Clippers with their current line-up headlined by ageing stars in Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Paul George, if he sticks around. Even if he does and the other two stay on the court, it’s unlikely they can go all the way anytime soon so a painful rebuild could be not too far away.
Phoenix Suns (49-33): Did somebody say painful rebuild? Kevin Durant will be 36 by the time the next season rolls around, Devin Booker is never going to be the best player on a championship team and Bradley Beal is not performing anywhere near his huge contract values. The future is looking dark for the Suns even with new coach Mike Budenholzer coming on board.
New Orleans Pelicans (49-33): After trying for three years straight to make a dent in the playoffs with two unreliable stars in Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and falling short, one of them is going to be traded away and it won’t be their No.1 draft pick face of the franchise. Ingram should fetch a decent haul in return to build a more complementary team around Zion.
Los Angeles Lakers (47-35): JJ Redick is all but signed, sealed and delivered to replace Darvin Ham as coach to guide his good buddy LeBron James into the final couple of seasons of his unprecedented career. They will agree with each other a lot but unless the Lakers can bring in a third star alongside Anthony Davis, they will be in the play-in range again.
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James gets past Denver Nuggets centre Nikola Jokic. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Sacramento Kings (46-36): They may have peaked with last year’s breaking of their playoff drought. And that’s scary. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are very good players but not elite, and that won’t cut it in the West.
Golden State Warriors (46-36): The golden era is officially over. Whether Klay Thompson comes back or the franchise persists with Draymond Green is close to being irrelevant now – Steph Curry won’t win another ring in the final years of his career and it’s going to take a long time for the Warriors to become perennial contenders again with their current crop of prospects not projected to be anything special. It’s hard to catch lightning in a bottle once let alone twice.
Houston Rockets (41-41): There were promising signs last season with their young core benefitting from some veteran teammates and Ime Udoka’s coaching but unless Alperen Sengun or Jalen Green really pops next year, they still seem to lack the face of the franchise who can take them from middling to the top.
Utah Jazz (31-51): They are in a holding pattern and despite getting maximum return from their investment in Lauri Markkanen over the past couple of seasons, it is perhaps the right time to sell high on him to give the franchise a chance to put together a young core that can be successful long term.
Memphis Grizzlies (27-55): The hardest team to predict going into next season because if Ja Morant keeps out of trouble and injury free, they should be playoff contenders but they can’t afford for him to be absent again or it will be another year in the tank.
San Antonio Spurs (22-60): If Victor Wembanyama’s worst year was his rookie year, the rest of the NBA should be nervous because he was amazing. He still needs viable options around him for the Spurs to be great and they’re unlikely to find that player in the upcoming draft so they need to start attracting top-liners or acquiring talent in trades to get Victor more victories.
Portland Trail Blazers (21-61): It’s looking real bleak in Portland with a bevy of journeymen and young players who could be good but rarely show it. They have draft assets but they need more so assets like DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Jerami Grant need to be turned into more lottery chances as soon as possible.