Hot Hawks, revived Lions’ unlikely finals charges; ‘sad’ truth as ump furore reignites: Talking Points

Two wild wins have set up Brisbane and Hawthorn to be this year’s Carlton and GWS, making shock finals charges.

Plus the holding-the-ball changes turn sour, Adelaide’s off-field concerns and trade targets, and the strange double-bye fixture call.

The big issues from Round 13 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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LIONS ‘GOT MOJO BACK’, SO CAN THEY STILL PLAY FINALS?

The Brisbane Lions are back in business.

Brisbane breathed fresh life into its season and finals hopes after a bumper 42-point win over the Western Bulldogs, led by a career-best six goals from Eric Hipwood.

After what’s been an underwhelming first half off the season, the Lions looked much more like their 2023 version that played in a grand final – the version many tipped to go one better in 2024.

Brisbane has of course been such a successful football program in recent years, with more wins than any team over the last five and a half seasons despite failing to win a premiership during that strong run under Chris Fagan.

But there’s suddenly renewed hope for 2024.

“A lot of people were writing them off after a month of footy. They’ve got their mojo back,” former Hawks sharpshooter Ben Dixon told Fox Footy Live on Friday night.

“(Their record is) neither here nor there, but the beauty is they’re only three games off second spot.

“Anyone can win it … everyone is in contention. (Fagan) isn’t panicking, they’re not lying down and they’re going to come in fighting.”

The Lions improved to 5-1-6 on the season, which sounds out of the mix but isn’t – after Friday night they were just three wins behind second place, and with a strong percentage.

It’s particularly significant in such an open premiership race, where below the first-placed Swans, the true contenders remain unclear.

And so it’s not out of the realm of possibility the Lions make a run from outside the top four, while there’s still ample time for them to push for the double chance.

You’d certainly be nervous playing the Lions right now – particularly at the Gabba – a team much better and with more star power than their 13th place on the ladder suggests.

“I thought it was a really significant victory and one for Chris Fagan, who’s been under some pressure, and the captain Lachie Neale, who stood up again,” Demons legend skipper Garry Lyon said on Fox Footy.

“It’s a win I think they needed … I think they’ll get confidence from it, it’s just whether they’ve left themselves a lot of work to do.

“This is a team that nearly won a premiership.”

Triple premiership winning Lion Jonathan Brown meanwhile thinks the Brisbane “boys are back in town,” suggesting the club had underperformed so far in 2024 in a scary proposition for the rest of the AFL.

“It’s funny, we were looking at their stats pre-game going: ‘How the hell are Brisbane sitting 13h on the ladder?’ Because there’s a lot of green in their numbers,” Brown said on Fox Footy.

“It gives them big shot of hope. They’ll walk away tonight going: ‘Hang on, that’s our game. We’re back’. A lot of players individually feeling good about themselves.

“That’s their MO, playing really dominant football, they certainly did last year.

“They’re not going to stay too far from their identity. I think that gives then confidence that still holds up in 2024.”

The Lions’ run home, though relatively tough, includes six of their last 10 games at their Gabba fortress too, plus a game on the Gold Coast where they don’t leave their home state.

“If they are going to make (the top eight), they’re going to have to go on a run and win about seven or eight in a row … like what the Giants did last year,” Brownlow medallist Gerard Healy said on Fox Footy Live.

“What they’ve lost is room to move, but they’ve just got to keep winning.”

Brisbane’s remaining fixture (must win 7+ of these 11 games)

Round 14 v Saints (Gabba)

Round 15 v Power (Adelaide Oval)

Round 16 v Demons (Gabba)

Round 17 v Crows (Gabba)

Round 18 v Eagles (Optus Stadium)

Round 19 v Swans (Gabba)

Round 20 v Suns (People First Stadium)

Round 21 v Saints (Marvel Stadium)

Round 22 v Giants (Gabba)

Round 23 v Magpies (MCG)

Round 24 v Bombers (Gabba)

…BUT ARE THE HAWKS AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING IT?

It was unthinkable in late April to suggest Hawthorn could play finals. After all, they looked horrible at 0-5, then beating lowly North Melbourne before being blown off the MCG by Sydney.

Yet we didn’t realise the turnaround had already begun.

Sam Mitchell was surprisingly positive about the Hawks’ 76-point loss to the Swans, saying “if you watched it without a scoreboard, you would have said the brown-and-gold boys are having a crack”.

The last month and a half have proven he was right. Because they’re suddenly having a crack at making the eight.

In a bizarre year where almost anyone can beat anyone, it has to be considered, because the Hawks have won five of their last six matches – the only defeat coming in that heartbreaking collapse at Port Adelaide.

They’re beating teams who used to be above them, but are now around them, like the Bulldogs, Saints, Lions and Crows, but added arguably their biggest scalp on Saturday by pinching the four points from GWS.

Their awful start to the year, and very bad percentage of 88.1, means they’ll have to just keep winning if they’re going to stun the footy world and play finals. Realistically they will need to reach 13 wins, which means finding seven more in their last 10 games.

But then you look at the fixture… and it’s doable.

Hawthorn’s remaining fixture (must win 7+ of these 10 games)

Round 14 v Richmond (MCG)

Round 16 v West Coast (Optus Stadium)

Round 17 v Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)

Round 18 v Fremantle (UTAS Stadium)

Round 19 v Collingwood (MCG)

Round 20 v Adelaide Crows (Adelaide Oval)

Round 21 v GWS (Manuka Oval)

Round 22 v Carlton (MCG)

Round 23 v Richmond (MCG)

Round 24 v North Melbourne (UTAS Stadium)

The weighted fixture is helping the Hawks here, with five games left against teams below them – the bottom three of West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne, plus a visit to 15th-placed Adelaide.

They may not win all of those games, because upsets happen (and Richmond will be tough in Dusty’s 300th next week), but they will arguably be favoured in all five.

Get the job done and you only need two more wins. Again, it’s doable. They force Fremantle into the extra-long road trip to Tassie; they beat Collingwood last year; they just showed they can beat GWS. Heck, Geelong in Geelong is nowhere near as tough as it used to be.

The most likely scenario is the Hawks drop off a little bit, or cop a couple of close losses, and finish around the 10 or 11-win mark. That’s still a fantastic year from where they were in late April, and another sign of growth, with a 2025 finals charge a legitimate possibility.

If we’re comparing Brisbane and Hawthorn’s finals chances, the Lions should have the advantage – they have an extra game in hand, plus the stronger track record of being a true contender.

But the Hawks are one of the hottest teams in footy; we’ll only know they’ve lost their momentum if and when it happens.

Until then, they’re a chance to win almost every game.

‘NOT IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GAME’: POSSIBLE ‘SAD’ REALITY BEHIND AFL’S HTB CHANGE-OF-MIND

After “some feedback” from the AFL’s senior-coaching cohort, the league ‘reacted’, changing its holding-the-ball interpretation at the midway point of the year.

But, just two weeks into the altered perception of the much-debated rule, there are already “concerns” from that same coaching contingent.

It begs the question: was the AFL right in switching up the interpretation of a rule that was already an inexact science during the season, or should they have waited until the end of the campaign to decide whether a tweak was required?

Following Carlton’s Round 11 win over Gold Coast, Michael Voss said his club would “follow up” on a number of contentious incidents, while Damien Hardwick noted “a very dangerous” tackling situation involving Charlie Curnow and Mac Andrew.

“I don’t say that often,” Voss said on May 25 of inquiring about umpire calls. “I’ve never sat in here and (said that), but we’ve got some things to follow up.”

Said Hardwick on the same day: “(There were) 131 effective tackles today, and there were four holding-the-balls for both sides. That one where Andrew had Curnow at the start, that is a very dangerous situation for both players — one, for Charlie, and two, for Mac.”

Irrespective of whether the pair’s intense commentary was the AFL’s ‘final straw’ of sorts, prior to Round 12, the AFL directed umpires to shorten the ‘reasonable time’ a player has to dispose of the ball.

However, the new interpretation hasn’t been met with celebration by all.

Speaking post-game on Friday night following the Bulldogs’ loss to the Lions, Luke Beveridge outlined his “concern” about the “risky” tweak.

“What happened last week was a reaction to some feedback from some senior coaches, but they were talking about situations where players were standing up in tackles and the request was for the whistle to be blown a bit earlier,” Beveridge said.

“Whether they’ve had prior opportunity or not, just blow it earlier. But now that’s been taken into situations where players have been taken to ground.”

Adding to the discourse, 300-gamer Kane Cornes said the AFL shouldn’t have given in to the coaches’ complaints at the midway point of the year.

“It’s probably (up) to the AFL to sit back at the end of the season and assess all of it, not just overreact to a couple of coaches that are complaining midyear,” Cornes said on Nine’s Sunday Footy Show.

“Change it midyear, and then you’re going to have coaches complaining about the change midyear. It’s confusing for everyone.”

Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd pondered whether players’ approach to contests will change, noting a potentially “sad” reality.

“We’ve got to a point (where) a player is going to question whether he wants to grab the ball, and that’s sad for our game,” Lloyd said.

“I enjoyed the first week that the whistle was being blown a bit quicker, but now it went too far, in my opinion, over the weekend.

“(They) have to question ‘do I want to go for that ball? What’s the point? I’ll let someone else grab it, then I’ll tackle him’. That’s not really in the spirit of the game.”

It’s a valid concern to have, considering the rule’s trajectory.

On Friday, Beveridge preached ‘protecting’ the competition’s ball-winners amid the rule’s ever-present ambiguity — aligning with Lloyd’s view.

“It’s a challenge,” Beveridge said. “In the AFL’s charter, it talks about our game being a contested game.

“And in the charter, you have to protect the player who tries to win the ball. We can’t move away from that, otherwise the game changes.”

The Bulldogs coach emphasised the importance of a player’s prior opportunity once they took possession.

“What we need to absolutely uphold is the prior or no prior opportunity,” he continued.

“So, when a player has not had prior opportunity, we’ve got to make sure that we protect the player.

“I’m just talking about the game in essence. We need to protect the guy who wins the footy. If he gets tackled straight away, we need to make sure we get back to making sure we’re in sync with, as I said, the spirit of the game, more than anything.

“I think there’s people (who) have said ‘get rid of the prior opportunity rule’. But, if you do, it’s a very different game if you’ve got players who are hesitant to go and win it.

“We don’t want to be there. The AFL’s got a challenge on their hands. I think the umpires are trying to process and manage the situation, and where it goes is a challenge for them.”

Albeit no matter the scepticism some now have, it’s important to consider the potential injuries that have been prevented as a result of quicker whistles.

‘Holding the ball’ will never be perfect, but amendments that seek to further player safety should continue to be encouraged.

‘IN THE BUNSEN BURNER’: WHERE TO NEXT FOR FLAILING CROWS AMID BRAZEN ‘BOYS’ CLUB’ CLAIM

Is a formal review of Adelaide’s football department required to rectify its stark underperformance?

After narrowly missing out on a September berth last year, the Crows haven’t come close to the same level of play they displayed in 2023.

Adelaide again lost in disenchanting fashion against Richmond on Thursday night, drawing more expansive criticism from pundits — including a former Crow — as the club’s decision-makers face heat.

The Tigers claimed an eight-point win in Round 13 to consign Adelaide to its eighth loss from 13 games as it languishes in 15th position on the ladder.

The Crows’ latest letdown prompted ex-player Stephen Rowe to lambaste the club’s powerbrokers amid a mightily disappointing campaign.

“I don’t rate the decision-makers that are now having to make judgement on this decision, where we are now, moving forward with the list,” Rowe said of Adelaide’s football department on FIVEaa.

The 29-gamer called out a host of names, including Crows football director Mark Ricciuto and list management and strategy boss Justin Reid.

“You know who I’m talking about,” he continued. “Your football director, Mark Ricciuto — now, people say that I’ve been into him for years. Yeah, because this was always coming, this tsunami of response to where we are.

“Justin Reid, the list management team — that list management group has to 100 per cent go in the Bunsen burner.”

Ricciuto, who played 312 games for Adelaide including its 1998 premiership, was first elected to the club’s board in 2014, while Reid was appointed the Crows’ list manager in late 2014.

Rowe called for clarification on club CEO Tim Silvers’ plans to dig the Crows out of their current predicament, before labelling Adelaide’s football department a “boys’ club”.

“I know what (is) going to happen,” Rowe declared. “We’re going to have a review. Tim Silvers will stand up (and say) ‘we’re going to have a review’.

“An internal one, an external one, it doesn’t matter — it might be a combination of both — and I know what will happen: they’ll throw an assistant under the bridge.

“They’ll say the (player) development’s not right, and the same key people that I’ve been (getting) into will still remain in those chairs, and I think that’s the frustration that a lot of the Crows fans have on the trains, the buses, the trams.

“Now, not enough people say it; it’s a boys’ club. I thought Tim Silvers would come in here with a silver bullet, but it’s the Stockholm syndrome — Google it if you don’t know what it is — you become them. You become the same as the captor.”

While Ricciuto and Reid are long-time West Lakes servants, Silvers was only inducted as chief executive in early 2021.

Rowe specifically called for Silvers to front-up and provide greater detail of the club’s ongoing strategy amid an evident plight.

“Tim, I want (to hear from) you tomorrow,” he said. “We need to drill down on what your plan is from here forward, because they’re coming for you.

“They’re coming for the club, and when I say ‘they’, your fans. Your fans!”

However, speaking to ABC Sport, Silvers wasn’t receptive to “boys’ club” claims.

“I take offence to it, really,” the Crows’ boss said in response.

“I don’t think that’s who we are and what we stand for, and the type of people we’ve got.

“There are some really good footy people at our footy club, and they’re highly respected.”

But, despite Rowe’s urgent plea for change, Silvers wasn’t willing to commit to a formal examination of Adelaide’s footy department.

“I’m not stating (that) we’re going to make a formal review as such,” he said.

“We’re in a rut, but I’ve got to back in what we’ve got at the minute.”

One of the big discussion points on that ‘rut’ is the debatable premature re-signing of senior coach Matthew Nicks — who penned a two-year contract extension in March to take his West Lakes commitment to the end of 2026.

Silvers said the club’s priority was to win games, but admitted based on that measurement the Crows’ list isn’t performing to expectation.

“First and foremost, we’re looking to win,” he said. “It’s going to be our best 22, our best 23 (players) available.

“If you’re looking at wins and losses, the answer is no (the list isn’t good enough). We’re disappointed with how we’re going, so we’ve got to put our hand up (and own) that.”

The Crows have already been linked to contracted Gold Coast forward Jack Lukosius and off-contract teammate Ned Moyle as they eye personnel improvements in the coming off-season. They were also heavily linked to Melbourne duo Clayton Oliver and Harrison Petty last year.

Following the in-season retirement of Rory Sloane and the nearing ends to the careers of the likes of ‘Tex’ Walker and Brodie Smith, Silvers noted the ‘transitioning’ nature of the Crows’ playing-group hierarchy.

“We’re going through a leadership transition at our footy club,” he said. “It’s obvious, even externally, I would’ve thought.

“It is a bit of a leadership transition, we did with a wide leadership group this year, granted, and we’ll continue to evolve that in the seasons to come.”

With upcoming fixtures against top-of-the-table Sydney (twice), GWS, Brisbane (in Brisbane), Essendon (at Marvel Stadium), Geelong (in Geelong) and a Port Adelaide-hosted Showdown, things don’t get any easier for the Crows in their uphill battle to snag a finals seed.

‘GOOD PLAYER’ ON A ‘SUPERSTAR’S WAGE’: WILL RIVAL OVERPAY FOR HOMEGROWN HYBRID?

Gold Coast’s Jack Lukosius hasn’t set the AFL world alight since arriving in Carrara in 2018 as the No. 2 draft selection.

The South Australian swingman isn’t eligible to exercise his restricted free agency rights until the end of the 2026 season — having furthered his commitment by four years in 2022 — but that won’t stop rival clubs from flagging their interest ahead of this year’s trade period.

In particular, Adelaide is anticipated to show interest in the Woodville-West Torrens product.

In April, SEN’s Sam Edmund flagged Lukosius as “a watch” in the lead-up to the 2024 player movement window.

The 23-year-old was initially deployed as a key defender this season before first-year Suns coach Damien Hardwick conceded error and pushed him back forward — where he booted a career-high 39 goals last season as a formidable marking threat.

Hardwick continues to play with his magnets as he aims to cultivate the club’s best 23 during a campaign in which it appears to be genuinely challenging for a finals seed.

However, Ben King is seemingly firmly planted on the Sunshine Coast, and superstar-in-the-making Jed Walter and fellow 2023 Gold Coast Academy graduate Ethan Read are also in the club’s long-term forward-line frame.

Does Lukosius fit those progressing plans?

Herald Sun journalist Jon Ralph said he “gets the feeling” Gold Coast wants to retain Lukosius’ services, but it won’t necessarily do so if it requires forking over a lucrative sum. He reported on Thursday night that the Suns are “expecting a sustained assault” on Lukosius from the Crows.

Ralph picked the brains of Hawthorn goalkicking royalty on Fox Footy’s Thursday night post-match coverage.

“Jack Lukosius; good player (who) hasn’t become a great player yet,” Hawks legend Jason Dunstall declared.

“How would I handle this? Let me be as diplomatic as I can. If I was ‘Dimma’ and the Gold Coast Suns, I would be prepared to listen to any offer.

“Because I think, since he hasn’t yet reached that level that perhaps we thought he was going to — while his perceived value is still very high — if the Crows or someone else were to come hard and go big-time at him, I’d be very interested in what sort of compensation he could get.”

In addition to Lukosius (2026), emerging interceptor Mac Andrew comes out of contract at the end of next year, while fellow key-position defender Charlie Ballard is slated for restricted free agency in 2025.

Bullocking ball-winner Matt Rowell is also unsigned beyond 2025, while inside midfield running mate Noah Anderson’s contract expires at the end of the 2027 season.

“I like him (Lukosius), he’s a very good player, but he hasn’t become that superstar — but he’s probably on a superstar’s wage,” Dunstall said.

Dual premiership winner David King asked: “What would you take for him? What would Adelaide have to offer to get him?”

“Well, that’s interesting,” Dunstall responded. “That’s why I’m saying I’d listen (to offers), because if they offered enough, you’d go ‘yes, please’.

King hypothetically offered a second-round draft pick, to which Dunstall bluntly shut down: “No. You’re kidding, aren’t you?”

When Dunstall surfaced the idea of a first-round choice in exchange for Lukosius, King reminded: “But that might (end up being) Pick 4.”

“Yeah, I’ll take that,” Dunstall said as the panel chuckled. “Sold!”

From an Adelaide perspective, is the club’s list management committee desperate enough to potentially overpay for a long-term goalscoring spearhead?

Gold Coast’s asking price would surely revolve around the Crows’ first-rounder — presently sitting at No. 5 overall. It’d be a steep payment, but it might be the required expense. The clubs could also facilitate a swap of later choices.

Tex Walker’s eventual departure is nearing. Darcy Fogarty is a key pillar, but there remain varying levels of doubt about Riley Thilthorpe, Elliott Himmelberg and Lachie Gollant as dependable options for future years.

Amid a quickly-diminishing campaign, the Crows would surely ponder spending considerable capital at the position.

‘IT WAS GRAPHIC’: CALLS FOR CHANGE AFTER FIXTURE DISADVANTAGE

Does the AFL have an integrity issue with teams having two byes playing against teams that haven’t had one?

There’s been calls for change for 2025 after Brisbane, Sydney and GWS all had two byes before their respective Round 13 opponents Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Hawthorn – all yet to have a bye in 2024 – to create a disadvantage in the fixture for those less rested teams.

The Hawks got the win, barely, but the Bulldogs looked tired from the start in their loss to the Lions, while Geelong leapt out of the blocks but then watched the rested legs of the Swans’ superstar midfielders run all over them.

While it could be argued those sides with only one bye would eventually get their opportunity against a more fatigued opponent on the other side of it, it certainly won’t be against teams that haven’t had a breather at all.

The imbalance was created with this year’s introduction of Opening Round – when the 10 clubs not playing effectively had a pre-Round 1 bye – whereas those that did play in Opening Round had their first of two byes staggered from Rounds 2 to 6.

“It was graphic last night,” broadcaster Gerard Whateley said of Brisbane’s 43-point win over the Dogs on SEN on Saturday morning.

“We don’t do fairness in the AFL, but this has skewed things wickedly and it cannot be allowed to repeat.”

Hawthorn champion Dermott Brereton called it “so unfair,” while dual Norm Smith medallist Luke Hodge pointed out the “depleted” Dogs’ injury list made it even tougher for Luke Beveridge’s side compared to others.

Western Bulldogs legend Brad Johnson forecasted as much pre-game, admitting he was “a little bit nervous” about his former club going into the Lions clash after “undermanned” battles against Sydney and Collingwood the two weeks prior.

“It was probably the most fatigued I’ve seen Marcus Bontempelli post a game (against Collingwood) because of just the extra minutes that are grinding away here,” Johnson said on SEN pre-game.

“So I think they’re getting towards the bye and they need a break. And they’re playing a team tonight that’s had two already in the season. So that will be the thing to uncover.”

Bulldogs executive head of football Chris Grant conceded players were “probably just holding on to get to the end of next week” when probed on the matter prior to the club’s loss to Brisbane.

And though not making excuses nor suggesting the Dogs weren’t going to be physically up for the fight on Friday night, Grant believes it should be part of the discussion moving forward with the competitive balance restructure.

“There’s a need to try and provide a competition where everyone’s got a playing field that’s as even as it possibly can be when you already know that it’s compromised with the length of the season and the broadcast needs and not everybody playing each other equal amount of times,” Grant said on SEN pre-game on Friday night.

“So there’s already compromises being made and I’m not suggesting that our playing group are desperate for the bye and would have benefited from it a week or two ago. But there’s no doubt that at this time of the year, not having an equal playing field may not be the most appropriate thing.

“This is the first time in the modern fixture history where teams have played games prior to half the other in the competition. We understand the reasons why – the promotion of the game and the commercial realities of it all play a huge part in not only the current competition, but also the future of the game.

“But I think just the nature of some teams playing, some teams not (could be questioned) … and tonight is a good example, Brisbane has had their injury concerns. They’re not necessarily getting anyone back, but those who are available and playing are fresh and ready to go for tonight.

“I’m backing our players in to be able to deal with that and they feel like they’re in pretty good shape. But just the fatiguing nature of the game will take its toll at some point in time.”