AFL’s dream scenario with biggest Grand Final possible looming large: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

The AFL’s dream scenario is coming to life, with three of the biggest Grand Finals you could imagine looming over the season.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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1. SYDNEY SWANS (11-1, 148.8%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def Geelong by 30 pts

The Swans’ greatest opponent right now is time. They are so clearly the No.1 seed, and we can’t remember a time a team was this far ahead of the pack at this point of the season. They are not perfect, with minor questions at either end of the ground, but it doesn’t matter when the midfield trio of Heeney, Warner and Gulden is generationally good. It would be a massive shock if they didn’t finish on top of the ladder – they might be FOUR games clear of second after this weekend, when you consider their percentage – and so there are just two questions. Can they sustain this form? And will anyone find the form to get close to them? The only real recent comparison is Melbourne in 2022, who were two games and percentage clear after Round 10 – the Swans have an extra few games in the bank and a bigger lead – before being found out. That, and having to play the Grand Final at the MCG, are the Swans’ only real problems right now.

This week: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm

2. CARLTON (9-4, 109.8%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Essendon by 26 pts

Trust is a lot easier to lose than it is to gain. And, understandably, much of the footy world lost trust in Carlton after they’d lost four of six games, capped off by the 52-point thumping by Sydney. But two strong wins since, against the Suns and particularly the Power, showed plenty of fight and that led to Sunday night. On the ladder, it was 2nd vs 5th, but all the data suggested Carlton should be much better than Essendon. We trusted they would go out there and win well… and they did, with some help from the Bombers’ wayward goalkicking. Delivering like that on a big stage is a big deal, and Michael Voss’ men are extremely well-placed to earn a home qualifying final from here. For a start, they already sit second. But they have the second-easiest remaining draw, per Champion Data, including games against Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast and St Kilda. That should get them to 13 wins, and then they’re good enough to win at least three more, which will equal a top-four spot. They’re not flawless but they’re pretty damn good.

This week: BYE

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3. COLLINGWOOD (7-4-2, 108%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Melbourne by 38 pts

We considered moving the Magpies up into the second, but instead we’ll put it like this – right now, we’d have Carlton No.2 and Collingwood No.3, but long-term we would have the Magpies as the top threat to challenge Sydney. The Melbourne game wasn’t quite as dominant as the scoreboard suggested but they sure felt dominant, and to play that well with their current absentees is pretty remarkable. The loss to the Bulldogs was an off night, but otherwise they’re in as good a form as anyone (outside the Swans), and remarkably they are better defensively in some key areas than last year – third for pressure rating (8th in 2023), fourth for scores per inside 50 against (14th in 2023). We genuinely think a fully fit version of this team should be better than last year’s, and the prospect of a Sydney-Collingwood Grand Final (or a Carlton-Collingwood one… or a Sydney-Carlton one) is the AFL’s dream scenario, given the fanbases for the Pies and Blues, plus the TV audience the Swans bring.

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm

4. BRISBANE LIONS (5-6-1, 115.5%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def Western Bulldogs by 43 pts

Leaping up eight spots sounds dramatic, but remember, the middle of the ladder right now is extremely tight. And even though the Lions are 13th they are inarguably scarier than their ladder position suggests. The loss to Hawthorn doesn’t look as bad now, and excluding that game they’re unbeaten since Anzac Day, with a greatly improved offence – 1st in the AFL for points scored, 2nd for scores per inside 50 and shot and goal accuracy. The latter element, accuracy, is what Chris Fagan has cited multiple times in recent weeks. He knows the Lions kicked themselves out of a few games early in the year (16th for accuracy between Opening Round and Round 7), and it has them needing a strong run home to play finals. But they have six Gabba games plus the away Pineapple Grapple left, so the chances are there, and they’re clearly dangerous – if we were an AFL coach, we’d rather be playing Essendon (3rd), Port Adelaide (4th) or Geelong (5th) than the 13th-placed Lions next week.

This week: St Kilda at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

5. FREMANTLE (7-4-1, 121.4%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, BYE

The Dockers move up two spots without playing due to other teams falling below them, but make no mistake, we have a good amount of faith in them. They have to face the Dogs and Swans on the road across the next three weeks, but those are arguably their two hardest remaining games (maybe joined by Essendon away or GWS away, but we rate the Dogs higher than both sides right now). With six games in Perth remaining, Justin Longmuir’s men really should play finals.

This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (6-7, 114.9%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, lost to Brisbane by 43 pts

You can’t exactly blame a seven-goal loss on a few injuries but the absences certainly hurt the Dogs in the loss to the Lions. It also makes Saturday’s clash with Dockers even more difficult – and an upset loss would be seriously damaging. At some point the Dogs need to get ahead of the ledger, because even if we rate them as a top-eight team, the ladder rather than our opinion decides who plays finals. With a great percentage there is a minor chance they play finals with 12 wins, but more realistically they’ll need to win seven of their last 10. And with games like Port away, Geelong away, Sydney away and Carlton at Marvel coming up before the end of July, their margin for error is shrinking.

This week: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

7. PORT ADELAIDE (8-4, 111.7%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, BYE

The Power move up a spot without playing due to other teams sliding below them. We still don’t have much faith in them as a legitimate contender, but the Giants are gettable on the road this weekend, and sitting 9-4 ahead of the massive pack of challengers would be a massive advantage heading into a dramatic finals race. Especially since they have a relatively kind draw from here – the sixth-easiest in the AFL, per Champion Data, and amongst realistic contenders only the Cats and Blues have an easier one.

This week: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium, Sunday 4pm

8. ESSENDON (8-4, 100.2%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Carlton by 26 pts

We didn’t lose any respect for Essendon over the last fortnight – on expected score they deserved to beat both Gold Coast and Carlton, but while great goalkicking accuracy helped them win a few games unexpectedly earlier in the season, things have since turned. So they’re where they should be; a pretty good but not great team that should play finals but isn’t a top-tier contender. There are simply enough clearly-better teams going around now that we don’t have to have the Bombers up the top of these rankings by default – but please don’t take that as disrespect. We are pretty confident the Bombers are a finals-quality team, but in the 5th to 8th bracket; they may still finish higher than that. They finish the year with the Swans and Brisbane away, so they need to bank their wins once they’re back underway after the bye; and they can realistically beat any of their next eight opponents (West Coast, Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda, Fremantle and Gold Coast). They could also lose to all of them. Big two months coming up!

This week: BYE

9. HAWTHORN (6-7, 88.1%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, def GWS by 6 pts

We couldn’t find a way to get the Hawks any higher than this, but have no doubt, they can beat pretty much anyone on their day in their current form. Will Day, who was tremendous against the Giants, has been a major key to this turnaround and over the last six weeks they’re top six for scoring, points from forward half intercepts and pressure. Tick, tick and tick. To actually turn this surge into a finals berth, they’ll have to stay at this level – which would be pretty ridiculous, they’d be playing at a top-four level for basically four months – so it’ll be difficult. But it’s not impossible, since they have the third-easiest remaining draw per Champion Data, with five games left against sides below them on the ladder. At an absolute minimum, they have shown they’ve taken another step forward after last year’s growth. The season is a tick already.

This week: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 4:35pm

10. GWS GIANTS (7-5, 112.7%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, lost to Hawthorn by 6 pts

It’s time to be genuinely concerned about the Giants’ finals chances. They have completely lost the ‘Orange Tsunami’ over the last six weeks, ranking 18th in the AFL for points from turnovers – the most important scoring source. And they can neither transition the ball from end-to-end (15th in defensive 50 to inside 50%) nor lock it in their forward end (16th for time in forward half). They’ve played some reasonably good teams over that block of games but they have plenty more to come, with the second-hardest remaining fixture in the AFL, per Champion Data. If we had to tip a current top eight side to miss the finals, it’d be the Giants. Having said all that though, we’re leaning towards tipping them against Port Adelaide, since Sunday’s game is at home; it’s close to a must-win.

This week: Port Adelaide at ENGIE Stadium, Sunday 4pm

11. GEELONG (8-5, 108.9%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Sydney by 30 pts

Is it weird to feel kinda good about a team that led by six goals but ended up losing by five goals? It was exactly the result we expected from the Cats against the Swans, but they at least showed flashes of the team that was 7-0, with a brilliant start showing their damaging forward line in full flight. Eventually their obvious weaknesses of a poor midfield and questionable defence (most notably the out-of-form Tom Stewart) were exploited, and those are the issues that’ll keep the Cats from truly contending, but they’re still fifth on the ladder with a pretty kind fixture to come (including four games in Geelong, St Kilda at Marvel and North in Tassie). They should still make the eight… but we were saying the exact same thing this time last year, and they didn’t get the job done.

This week: BYE

12. MELBOURNE (7-6, 100.1%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Collingwood by 38 pts

Just like last year’s qualifying final loss to the Magpies, the scoreboard did not accurately reflect the performance by Melbourne. They wasted plenty of chances. But it was just as demoralising as that loss, and it’s pretty clear at this point the Demons are a shell of their former selves. When they had an elite defence keeping opponents to 10 goals a game, and an elite midfield giving the forward line plenty of supply, it didn’t matter if they wasted chances (and they got higher-quality chances anyway). But now the defence is just OK, and the midfield has been kinda bad, with Clayton Oliver nowhere near his best, Christian Petracca unable to be both a gun mid and gun forward at the same time, and not enough help around him. So they’re just ordinary across the entire field… what is their asset right now? Just Max Gawn? That’s not enough. The season isn’t over if they just recover a bit of their 2021-23 form, but they’re not contending for the flag unless something super dramatic happens.

This week: BYE

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-6, 107.9%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to St Kilda by 3 pts

And that’s why we still can’t trust Gold Coast. They are an absurd 12 goals worse on the road, going unbeaten in Queensland and the Northern Territory with an average margin of 40 points, while winless everywhere else with an average margin of 32 points. They still haven’t won an away game since Round 9 last year, against the barely-fielding-a-team Eagles. Admittedly they came as close as it gets against St Kilda, with even the AFL admitting the free kick paid against Mac Andrew was wrong – and there’s nothing the AFL loves more than ticking off its own decisions, as we know. But it was such a Gold Coast-y performance, and as we’ve pointed out, all their tough opponents are flying north over the rest of the year, with all their easier opponents on the road. They simply cannot play finals without doing something about this absurd away hoodoo.

This week: BYE

14. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-8-1, 107.1%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Richmond by 8 pts

There are a few teams that have just become their stereotype this year. Melbourne, for example, kicks horribly in front of goal and can’t score. St Kilda is the most Ross Lyon-y Ross Lyon team ever. And Adelaide keeps losing winnable games, often because of goalkicking – they’re 1-4 with a draw in close games this year, and should’ve beaten Richmond last Thursday night. Just like they should’ve beaten Collingwood (x2), Sydney and Brisbane last year. They’re not as bad as 15th on the ladder suggests but behind the eight-ball all year, and then dropping a few winnable games over the last month, has effectively ended their season. We can totally understand the frustration in Adelaide but we would not be overreacting – they need to make some moves this trade period, but we would only be considering the coach’s future if 2025 is a repeat of 2024.

This week: Sydney Swans at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm

15. ST KILDA (5-8, 93.3%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, def Gold Coast by 3 pts

With help from an incorrect free kick, the Saints did the bare minimum by winning at home against a likely non-finalist from interstate. We know the expectations for this group have plummeted but wins over West Coast and Gold Coast would’ve been non-negotiable coming into the year, and it’s at least good to see Ross Lyon’s men getting the job done. It proves they’re not a terrible team, just a bad and very boring one. They get the Friday night stage against the Lions – a match-up that shows exactly why the AFL likes having a floating fixture – and it would be a mighty effort if their defence stands up like it did on Saturday night.

This week: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

16. RICHMOND (2-11, 64.9%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, def Adelaide by 8 pts

We basically have to think of Richmond as two different teams – the injury-ravaged one that got belted by the Bulldogs and Brisbane (who are both pretty good, by the way), and the side we’ve seen over the last three weeks that challenged Essendon and Geelong before beating Adelaide. They’re still not fully fit but that means they’re only going to get better, becoming something of a scary proposition in the back half of the season – because you look at the fixture and go ‘well, of course we should beat them, they’re in the bottom four’ but they’re better than that. They will be a stumbling block for someone and potentially ruin their finals charge. And who knows whether the power of Dusty’s 300th will get them over the line against the Hawks, who they have a pretty good history against.

This week: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 4:35pm

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-10, 72.6%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to North Melbourne by 9 pts

That was one of those losses where you just have to remember the context. Sure, it sucks being the first team to lose to the Kangaroos; but given the players missing, it was a much more even match-up than it seemed, and the visitors clearly lifted their game knowing the opportunity they had. It also doesn’t exactly hurt their chances of getting as high a draft pick as possible, which the players don’t care about, but the list management team would. They would be excused if their reaction was sadness, but with a wry smile.

This week: BYE

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-11, 58.6%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, def West Coast by 9 pts

And that’s why teams don’t go winless – eventually you get a manageable game, and the underdog plays well, and the favourite has some issues (either playing poorly or missing key players), and bang, you’re on the board. The midfield has genuinely been great over the last few weeks, ranking third in the AFL for contested possessions and second for clearances, which is something to build off. It makes the reported interest in Elliot Yeo slightly strange but there are only so many gettable free agent options, and the Kangaroos (who aren’t exactly capped out) will be able to afford a larger-than-expected contract for anyone willing to come to Arden Street. Plus you can frontload contracts while you’re down the bottom of the ladder to ensure you have the space when you’re eventually a contender.

This week: Collingwood at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm