The Albanese government’s net overseas migration (NOM) projections have routinely underestimated actual results.
Last year’s federal budget projected 400,000 NOM for 2022-23. The official total for 2022-23 was 528,500.
The 315,000 NOM projection for 2023-24 was raised up to 375,000 in December’s MYEFO and then to 395,000 in last month’s federal budget.
Source: 2024 federal budget
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However, the 395,000 NOM estimate has little chance of coming true.
On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released NOM figures for the December quarter, which set a new record high for NOM.
The September quarter release posted NOM of 548,800, which has been revised up to an all-time high 564,645. However, NOM retraced to 547,267 in the December quarter, suggesting migration has moved past the peak:
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In a similar vein, Australia’s population grew by a record 675,600 in the year to September 2023, which retraced marginally to 651,200 as at the end of the December quarter.
The population growth rate of 2.5% in Q4 was the highest since 1952:
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The share of Australia’s population growth driven by NOM hit a record high of 84% in the December quarter:
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In reality, all of Australia’s population growth comes from NOM, both directly as migrants arrive off the plane and indirectly as migrants have children (counted as natural increase):
Australia’s natural increase continues to collapse, reflecting falling births and rising deaths:
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NOM continues to be driven by NSW and Victoria.
NSW’s NOM peaked at 190,824 in Q3 before retracing to 184,619 in Q4. Victoria’s NOM peaked at 165,818 in Q3 before retracing to 160,175 in Q4:
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The latest net overseas migration figures showed that Australia’s NOM was 178,500 in Q3 and 129,400 in Q4, totalling 307,900 for the half.
This leaves only 87,100 worth of NOM over the first half of this year to meet the federal budget’s 395,000 NOM target for 2023-24.
Given that net permanent and long-term arrivals have remained hot so far in 2024, NOM is once again going to blow way past the budget’s forecast.
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The Albanese government continues to fail Australians on immigration and has lost control of the border.