The green Roombas were all dutifully charged last night and are ready to be deployed by the Boston faithful. Dallas will try and short-circuit them by any means possible – brute smashing, tech hacking or how about just winning a game in this series? There have been nine sweeps in NBA Finals history. With a victory tonight, the Celtics will join the Warriors, Spurs, Lakers, Rockets, Pistons, 76ers, Warriors, Bucks and Celtics on the Pantheon of Sweep.
DraftKings Sportsbook has DAL -1 over BOS at home. The total is 211.5. After missing Game 3, Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000) is questionable. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1M Finals Shootaround Special [$200K to 1st] (BOS at DAL)
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
Captain’s Picks
Jaylen Brown ($15,000 CP): Brown used to be so scoring-dependent that I would often eschew him for fantasy. He has certainly elevated and diversified his game. He will always be a professional getter of buckets, as he’s a beast in transition, can attack the rim with ferocity and, while the handle package isn’t great, it’s gotten better and his size allows him to muscle defenders in the paint and shoot over them. It’s been the contributions in the other categories that have been most salivating. He’s doing work on the glass, being a playmaker and racking up defensive stats. Brown has dished out eight and seven dimes over the last two games. While he didn’t rack up a steal in Game 3, he totaled 15 in the prior seven games. In three of those games, he had three steals. He’s going to play over 40 minutes, barring injury or foul trouble, and the usage rate will be the high 20s to low 30s. He’s gone for at least 40 DKFP in each of the last four games with 53.5 DKFP in Game 3.
UTIL Plays
Dereck Lively II ($5,400): The center position for the Mavericks has been managed like a physician’s balance beam scale for much of the season. Jason Kidd would often try and level it, but there have been times when he’s let it tilt in one direction or the other. In Game 3, Lively received 30 minutes of run while Gafford played 16 minutes. I think Lively is a better passer and defender on the perimeter while still being able to grab rebounds and protect the paint. Gafford is strictly a Luka-oop masher, which Boston has essentially neutralized. I like Lively to get the majority of playing time again tonight. And minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
Sam Hauser ($3,200): The Hauseritzer is my favorite value play on the slate. The 5-out offense of the Celtics requires shooters at every position to space things out. Hauser shot 42% from downtown in the regular season and is at 35% during this playoff run. He’s also held up relatively well on the defensive end. He’s played 16, 11 and 15 minutes in this series and gone for at least 15 DKFP in two of the games.
Kyrie Irving ($9,000): The range of outcomes is extremely wide for Kyrie. He went for 21.25 and 26.5 DKFP in the first two games of the serie but put up 42.75 DKFP in Game 3. Kyrie has become scoring-dependent, as he doesn’t do work on the glass or the defensive end. He’s the new Jaylen Brown! That said, he’s going to play over 40 minutes and likely garner a usage rate in the 30% range. He has one of the best handle packages in the game and can get his shot off against anyone. Boston has been switching and limiting easy looks for the complementary players, so ISO opps will be there for Kyrie.
Fades
Luka Doncic ($13,600): I know, I know. This could go horribly wrong because Luka garners a usage rate in the 35% range and is a threat to triple-double on any given night. He accomplished the feat in Game 2 while putting up 72.75 DKFP. In the other two games, though, he scored under 50 DKFP and dished out a total of seven dimes. Boston has been more or less saying that they will play tough one-on-one defense against Luka and Kyrie while not allowing the complementary pieces to go off. Luka is going to score points and grab rebounds, but at his price, the probability of him having a “have-to-have-it” score is lower than usual, especially since Boston has been hunting him on defense, making him work and think about foul trouble.
THE OUTCOME
Dallas has been flummoxed on offense because the lob threat has essentially been neutralized. In addition, there have been few easy looks for the wing players. They have yet to crack 100 points in this series. On the flip side, Boston has been able to exploit the weaknesses of the Dallas defense. While the Mavericks will likely be spirited tonight and flying around like a band of banshees, I’ve seen no indication of how they will adjust on both offense and defense. The Celtics make it 18 and become the 10th team to sweep a NBA Finals series.
Final Score: Celtics 105, Mavericks 101
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1M Finals Shootaround Special [$200K to 1st] (BOS at DAL)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mbarner51) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.