In addition to the March quarter national accounts, jobs and inflation data, the RBA board also has state and federal budgets and the workplace umpire’s annual minimum and award decision to digest since its last meeting in May.
The latter was unlikely to shift the dial, Mr Aird said, as the Fair Work Commission’s 3.75 per cent rise lined up neatly with the RBA’s expected trajectory for wages growth across the workforce.
Energy bill relief and other cost-of-living measures in state and federal budgets had economists asking questions about its inflationary impact, yet recent comments from RBA governor Michele Bullock suggest the central bank would “look through” the one-off impacts on inflation.
The post-meeting statement and press conference with Ms Bullock will be scrutinised closely for clues as to where interest rates might be headed next and how the central bank views the state of the economy.
Of late, the RBA has been leaving its options open on rate moves up or down, preferring not to rule anything in or out.
ANZ economists were expecting the board to keep that phrasing, but they expected it would highlight a stronger-than-expected consumer sector.
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The June meeting is set to dominate the economic calendar, although a speech from a central bank official, head of payments policy Ellis Connolly, is also scheduled for Tuesday.
A smattering of economic data releases are also due, including ANZ and Indeed’s job ads data on Monday and Judo Bank’s purchasing managers’ indexes on Friday.
Stocks on Wall Street closed lower on Friday after the US Federal Reserve reduced its projected rate cuts from three to one by the end of the year. This ended a four-day run of record closing highs, but there were gains in Adobe and other technology shares.
The S&P 500 lost 1.48 points, or 0.03 per cent, to end at 5432.26 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose 24.20 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 17,688.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 57.50 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 38,591.49.
Australian futures fell 17.000 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 19,868. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished 25.4 points, or 0.33 per cent, lower at 7724.3, giving back the bulk of Thursday’s gains.
For the week, the ASX200 lost 135.7 points, or 1.73 per cent, after it had gained 158 points, or 2.06 per cent.
AAP
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