Royal Ascot 2024: scrutiny falls on meeting with racing at crossroads

At a time of significant uncertainty for the centuries-old sport of horse racing, what better event could there be to steady the nerves than the royal meeting at Ascot? Crowd numbers are in decline at a long list of showpiece occasions, senior executives are moving on and the much-feared affordability checks on punters appear imminent. There is also, almost certainly, a new government on the way. Royal Ascot, though, remains a living, breathing embodiment of Keep Calm & Carry On.

This is a meeting with the cheery self-confidence to stage three of its eight Group One events on Tuesday’s opening card, which always attracts the second-lowest attendance of the week. It maintains a dress code based on Victorian levels of class-consciousness, and remains aloof from the grubby business of sponsorship for its races, at least in part because, well, that is how they have always done it.

And, for the moment at least, it seems to work as well as ever. Attendance at last year’s royal meeting was down on 2022, but by only 2.7%, a long way behind the sharp drops seen at Cheltenham in March and Aintree in April, for instance. That suggests that there is something about Royal Ascot that means it is not entirely immune from the cost-of-living crisis, but more immune than most.

The meeting has seamlessly maintained its strong link with the monarch following the death of Queen Elizabeth II in 2022, and the new king was rumoured to have ignored his advisors when he attended all five days in 2023. King Charles and Queen Camilla have several runners across the week as they attempt to repeat their memorable win with Desert Hero last year, and the track has also renamed Tuesday’s Group One sprint as the King Charles III Stakes.

Royal Ascot’s prize money remains highly competitive too, with this week’s meeting worth a record total of £10m, a minimum of £650,000 in the fund for all Group Ones, and every race worth at least £110,000. Ascot’s pioneering membership of the Hong Kong-based World Pool, which is reckoned to pay a flat fee of around £500,000 per day to participating racecourses, is a useful bolster there, and one that Cheltenham and Aintree cannot match as Asian punters prefer not to see their money leave the ground.

So it was no great surprise that when both Nevin Truesdale, the chief executive of the Jockey Club, and Julie Harrington, the CEO of the British Horseracing Authority, announced last week that they will be stepping down at the end of the year, Juliet Slot, Ascot’s former chief commercial officer, was prominent in the bookies’ betting for both roles.

Slot joined Arsenal as the club’s chief commercial officer in December 2021 and may well be happy in north London, but the jockeying for position as several key roles become vacant – including that of BHA chair when Joe Saumarez Smith steps down next May – will no doubt be much-discussed in the private boxes as the industry’s heavy-hitters descend on Berkshire this week.

There will also, of course, be no end of talking points on the track, not least after Tuesday’s St James’s Palace Stakes, which looks like one of the strongest renewals for years.

Kyprios, the impressive 2022 Gold Cup winner, will attempt to become only the third horse to win the race twice in non-consecutive years when he lines up for Thursday’s feature, while the meeting of Auguste Rodin, last year’s Derby winner, and the prolific Group One-winning mare, Inspiral, in Wednesday’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes is another potential race for the ages.

But the daily attendance figures will be closely scrutinised too, for any sign that cracks are starting to appear in the royal meeting’s resistance to the malaise afflicting many of the sport’s other major meetings. Other big days at Ascot, most notably the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes fixture in late July, have suffered sharp declines in attendance, with just 17,696 fans turning up for last year’s King George, down from 26,408 in 2019. For a track that has succeeded in attracting a new, younger audience in recent years, that is a worrying number.

In these uncertain times, the 2024 renewal of the sport’s most unique and historic event promises to be something of a bellwether, a sign of the extent to which the issues currently pressing in on racing are signs of a widespread, structural decline.

There will, as ever, be many moments of excitement and high drama as the five days and 35 races unfold, but with Cheltenham, Aintree and Epsom all having hit a flat spot, a similar story at Ascot would test even the royal racecourse’s famously stiff upper lip.

Speech can record notable victory

For the first time since 2016, the 2,000 Guineas winners from England, Ireland and France are all in the field for the St James’s Palace Stakes on the opening day of Royal Ascot on Tuesday, and the depth of competition is such that Notable Speech, the impressive winner of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, is likely to set off at odds-against.

Charlie Appleby’s colt is priced up at around 11-8 to confirm the form of his one-and-a-half length defeat of Rosallion at Newmarket, while Rosallion, who did well to run down Haatem after conceding first run in the Irish 2,000 Guineas a few weeks later, is 7-2 to get his revenge.

The third Guineas winner, Metropolitan, is a relative outsider at 14-1 having arguably had the run of the race from the best draw in the Poule D’Essai Des Poulains, while Aidan O’Brien’s Henry Longfellow, who got no run at all in that race, is 9-2 to make amends on Tuesday.

Rosallion showed plenty of spirit to get up at the Curragh last time but Notable Speech (4.25) beat him with something to spare at Newmarket and since he did not race at two, he has more scope for progress than most.

He has both a high cruising speed and a sharp turn of foot, the hallmarks of an outstanding miler, and should emerge from Tuesday’s showpiece event with his unbeaten record intact.

Royal Ascot 2.30 There are question marks over several of the leading contenders in relation to the good-to-firm ground and/or the strength of their recent form. There is little doubt, though, that Docklands put up the best performance of his career to win last year’s Britannia Handicap over track and trip and he looks over-priced at around 16-1.

Royal Ascot 3.05 With no standout in a big field, this year’s Coventy Stakes feels ripe for an upset. Jockey bookings suggest Columnist is the second-string of two recent big-money purchases by Wathnan Racing in the Richard Fahey yard, but his convincing debut win at Chester puts him at a similar level to many rivals and he could well outrun odds of around 33-1.

Royal Ascot 3.45 A wide-open first running of Ascot’s five-furlong Group One in its new guise as the King Charles III Stakes. Australian mare Asfoora has a narrow edge on ratings, Oisin Murphy in the saddle and a high draw that might just tip things her way.

Royal Ascot 5.05 Divine Comedy has taken a jump in the weights for her win at Haydock in May but the time of that race was strong, the extra distance here should suit and Kaiya Fraser is well worth his 5lb claim.

Royal Ascot 5.40 Wathnan Racing’s pre-Ascot splurge on new recruits could pay dividends here if Torito can reproduce his fine run in a hot handicap at Newmarket in May.

Royal Ascot 6.15 Another typically open handicap for the meeting but Tyson Fury shaped well after a break when back on turf at the Curragh last time and has a better chance than odds of around 25-1 suggest on that form.