The dark horse trio who can do damage in finals… yet aren’t even in the eight: Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

The top of the ladder matches our rankings, but we’re loving the work of a trio of dark horses who can do damage in September… except they aren’t even in the eight right now.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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All times are AEST.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (12-1, 149.8%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def Adelaide by 42 pts

It’s like they can just turn on light speed mode. Joel Amartey was the beneficiary of both their utter midfield dominance in patches of the second half, as well as some questionable Adelaide defending. We don’t know if his nine-goal bag means a whole lot – it feels like a confluence of circumstances, like the time Ben Ronke kicked seven for the Swans, rather than proof he is breaking out as a star forward. And in a big game we still think Sydney could be exploited at either end of the ground, or indeed if they keep starting slowly (at some point a team will decide to actually hold onto their lead). But also they’re effectively four games clear on top of the ladder, and clearly going to host a qualifying final, so we’re just nitpicking. They are really, really good.

This week: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

2. CARLTON (9-4, 109.8%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, BYE

Inactive last week, the Blues’ case as the No.2 seed was strengthened with Collingwood barely able to get past North Melbourne. Now we see how trustworthy they really are, against a Geelong side which has barely impressed since the last time these sides met. A true top-two contender would get the job done, and given the Blues’ potential inclusions, we would be surprised if they lost.

This week: Geelong at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (7-7, 119.7%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Fremantle by 67 pts

Yes, third. The Bulldogs have a tendency to demolish teams whenever they get their game on their terms, and the Dockers copped it on Saturday, with even the ill Marcus Bontempelli embarrassing them at times. Their best is amongst the AFL’s best and with Aaron Naughton, Nick Coffield and James Harmes all likely to be made available when the Bulldogs return from their bye, they’re getting closer to full strength too. Perhaps the Dogs will be too inconsistent to actually take advantage of their quality, but we know they can win it from outside the top four. The real problem would be missing the eight entirely but surely they wouldn’t throw away a finals bid two years in a row. Right?

This week: BYE

4. COLLINGWOOD (8-4-2, 107.3%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def North Melbourne by 1 pt

Well, you can either be glass half-full or glass half-empty about Sunday. Obviously the comeback was mightily impressive, the pinnacle of their ability to recover from any deficit and play brilliant surge football – the type that looks chaotic to the opposition while everyone in black and white knows exactly what’s going on. They also deserved to win, given how ridiculously straight the Kangaroos kicked, and you know how we feel about expected score. But we would argue being nine goals down to a one-win North Melbourne side in the first place is still pretty concerning. It may not matter, as they’ve bought themselves more time to get healthy – and there is no doubt they’re nowhere near their best 23 right now – so by July and August, they should be playing much better footy. But again… nine goals! To North! In a half! Not great!

This week: BYE

5. BRISBANE LIONS (6-6-1, 115.8%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def St Kilda by 20 pts

We thought the Lions would be a bit more convincing than that against St Kilda, instead allowing a woeful offensive team to kick over 100 points. Kinda like with Collingwood, it doesn’t really matter since they got the win anyway, but we wanted to see more evidence that the underlying numbers tipping Brisbane as a genuine contender (despite sitting 13th on the ladder) were real. Perhaps we’ll get that against the Power, who aren’t exactly in red-hot form. It’s the type of 50-50 game the Lions really need to win to close the gap between themselves and the pack – they probably need to win seven of their last 10 games to play finals and while that’s doable, they want as much margin of error as possible.

This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:45pm

6. GWS GIANTS (8-5, 114.2%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, def Port Adelaide by 22 pts

If the Giants end up going on a 2023-like late-season run into flag contention, the first signs will have come from the win over Port Adelaide. They actually looked like themselves again, scoring 46 points from turnovers – which would’ve been much higher had they kicked straight – having averaged 65 points from Opening Round to Round 7, but just 30 points from Round 8 to 13. Whether their ball movement has recovered to the point they can stop Sydney’s unbeaten run is another question, but the Giants certainly have the upside for a top-four push, and Sunday was the first time we’d seen it on the field in months.

This week: Sydney Swans at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

7. FREMANTLE (7-5-1, 111.1%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 67 pts

Well, sometimes you have an off day, just like the Demons did against the Dockers a week ago. And the Bulldogs are particularly good at punishing teams when they’re a bit off. We still have faith in Fremantle, whose midfield and defence have stood up most weeks. As long as they can get the job done against the Suns on Sunday they’ll be well-placed on the run home – they would be two games clear of sides like the Bulldogs, Hawks and Lions, who are the most obvious contenders to pinch their top-eight spot.

This week: Gold Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4pm

8. HAWTHORN (7-7, 92.7%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, def Richmond by 48 pts

From 0-5, they’re officially in our eight, and with West Coast coming up after the bye there’s a real chance Hawthorn will soon be on a five-game winning streak – something they haven’t done since 2018. From an analysis perspective we were thrilled with the win over Richmond, because it was the perfect let-down game for a young team on a roll, given the Tigers’ recent edge over them and all the emotion around Dusty. Instead the Hawks let him kick that first goal and then dominated proceedings on route to a comprehensive win. It was the type of result a properly good team produces… so the Hawks may just be a properly good team.

This week: BYE

9. PORT ADELAIDE (8-5, 108.8%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to GWS by 22 pts

Nothing too wrong with losing an away game to another top-eight side, but it leaves the Power back in the back as the run home heats up. We know exactly the type of team they are, focusing on controlling territory, but is there an overreliance on it? They’re now 7-2 when they win the inside 50 count but 1-3 when they lose it. It’ll help having Zak Butters available from suspension but he responded poorly to the tag from Toby Bedford on Sunday, and if Jarrod Berry tries the same tactic, he’ll need to respond. (Ideally not by hitting him.)

This week: Brisbane at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:45pm

10. ESSENDON (8-4-1, 100.2%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, BYE

Inactive last week, the Bombers only slide a couple of spots to make way for the impressive Giants and Hawks. We still think they’re playing finals, especially if they get the job done against West Coast this Sunday – which really shouldn’t be as close as the game in Perth a few weeks ago was. Remember we felt pretty good about the Bombers coming out of their losses to the Suns and Blues. They really should cement a spot in the top four after this weekend and from that point, they would need just four more wins in their last nine games to feature in September.

This week: West Coast at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm

11. GEELONG (8-5, 108.9%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, BYE

Inactive last week, the Cats resume their season with a rematch against Carlton – it’s very stupid they’re playing again so soon, by the way. They impressively downed the Blues by 13 points when the teams met in Round 7, but the sides have gone in different directions since then. Patrick Dangerfield’s looming return is a boon to a midfield that desperately needs assistance but we will continue to rate the Cats outside of the true top-four contenders until something changes. Though we still think they’ll play finals, even if they lose to the Blues, because their draw is relatively smooth after this week. The question is whether they can escape ‘inevitable elimination final loss’ territory.

This week: Carlton at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

12. MELBOURNE (7-6, 100.1%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, BYE

Inactive last week, it’s hard to overstate the performance of just getting the job done against North Melbourne for the Demons. With the Kangaroos apparently finding some form, Saturday night is suddenly a banana peel game, but with the finals race this tight you simply have to bank every win you can. Even with a victory over North, the Dees will probably need to win five of their last nine games just to make the eight, so it’s not like the job will be done. But it will buy them some much-needed time to find form; and without Christian Petracca for the rest of the year we are very concerned.

This week: North Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 7:30pm

13. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-6, 107.9%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, BYE

Inactive last week, the Suns desperately need to end their away-game hoodoo, and return to the site of their last interstate win – all the way back in Round 9 last year, when they beat a horrible version of West Coast. We would expect the Dockers to recover from last week’s Dogs demolition, so it’s not a disaster if Gold Coast loses, but it would make the St Kilda defeat even more painful. A win, however, would open things up dramatically. Big game for the club.

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4pm

14. ADELAIDE CROWS (4-9-1, 102.6%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Sydney by 42 pts

Well, much like we were mildly positive about Geelong for even gaining a lead over Sydney, at least the Crows were poised for an upset well into the second half. Then everything fell apart, but then that’s kinda been their whole year, hasn’t it? Some positives but more negatives. It’s still impressive they have a percentage over 100 given their record but it speaks to the closeness of the competition, and how little needed to change for the Crows to be in finals contention right now. Instead we’re in ‘they’re conducting a review but don’t worry the coach is safe’ territory, which is rarely good news.

This week: BYE

15. ST KILDA (5-9, 92.2%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Brisbane by 20 pts

We wonder if you asked Saints fans pre-game whether they would’ve taken a guaranteed loss if they knew they were gonna see their team score over 100 points? It was another night that showed the impressive impact Jack Higgins is having on this team, with his ability to hit the scoreboard and create opportunities for others quite underrated. There’s some mild chance they get on a bit of a run post-bye and finish a respectable 10th-12th, but the Saints may as well inject more youth into the side and lock up a bottom-six fixture for next year.

This week: BYE

16. RICHMOND (2-12, 63.9%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Hawthorn by 48 pts

So no, it turns out the emotion of Dusty’s 300th – and the incredible sight of an extra 40,000 fans rocking up to the MCG for a bottom-10 game in the middle of winter because of it – wasn’t enough to turn the Tigers into the team that could stop Hawthorn. For the first time in a while Richmond fans head into the post-bye period purely looking at their team as a spoiler for higher-ranked rivals; though another win or two to just make sure they’ll avoid the wooden spoon wouldn’t go astray…

This week: BYE

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-10, 72.6%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, BYE

Inactive last week, the Eagles would love to get revenge for their near-miss against the Bombers a few weeks ago (it’s still crazy that they’re playing again this quickly). It would be a major step forward if they’re able to pull an upset on the road, instead of just at home, but also not a surprise if they remain unable to do so.

This week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm

18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-12, 61.9%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Collingwood by 1 pt

The question is whether something has clicked at Arden Street, or if this was just a promising two-week blip. Last year the Kangaroos had a few patches of impressive performances – including nearly beating Sydney and Essendon midseason, but then falling back into 10-goal defeat territory – so we’ll see if this holds. What was clear on Sunday was the difference having tall targets makes. Even if they were only Toby Pink and Brynn Teakle, who are nobody’s idea of a dynamic duo, they played key roles and gave the Kangaroos more options when going forward other than just ‘kick it to Larkey’.

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 7:30pm