Memphis football has gotten plenty of preseason buzz as a potential College Football Playoff team in 2024, and understandably so — the Tigers are bringing back most of the key contributors from a 10-3 team and have brought in plenty of impact transfers.
But that hasn’t convinced ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Tigers are projected to win just eight games in 2024, a win total that would almost certainly eliminate them from playoff contention. They’re ranked No. 66 in FPI, behind fellow Group of Five teams Boise State, James Madison and UTSA. Memphis is one spot ahead of Appalachian State.
Liberty, the highest ranked Group of Five team in last year’s end of season rankings, is No. 79. Troy, which visits Memphis on Sept. 7, is No. 75. Tulane, which hosts Memphis on Thanksgiving Day, is No. 69.
FPI gives Memphis a 7.9% chance of making the College Football Playoff. That’s behind Boise State (16.4), UTSA (15.6) and Liberty (9.6). It’s still higher than plenty of Power Five conference schools, though, a byproduct of the guaranteed spot for a G5 team in this year’s expanded playoff.
The model — “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season” — would seem to be relatively down on Memphis. It’s relatively high on UTSA, a team that finished third in the American Athletic Conference last season but lost its longtime quarterback in Frank Martin and will have plenty of new faces in 2024.
Memphis visits the Alamodome on Nov. 2.
FPI gives Memphis a 17.4% chance of winning the AAC. That’s third behind UTSA (31.3) and Tulane (17.7).
The Tigers bring back quarterback Seth Henigan, who ESPN pegged as one of the best quarterbacks in the country entering this season. Memphis also returns top receiver Roc Taylor and leading tackler Chandler Martin, among others.
The Tigers have a relatively difficult schedule, though. Memphis plays at Florida State (No. 11 in FPI) in nonconference play and has to play South Florida, Tulane and UTSA all on the road. Along with Memphis, those are expected to be the top teams in the AAC. That could be one of the reasons FPI isn’t as high on the Tigers as some pundits have been.
Memphis kicks off its season on Aug. 31 when North Alabama visits Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.