CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows that Melbourne continues to be left behind while home values across other major capitals continue to rise.
Over the 28 days to 21 June 2024, Melbourne’s home values declined by 0.1%, whereas values rose by 0.7% at the 5-city aggregate level:
CoreLogic shows that Melbourne home values have risen by only 4.2% since capital city values nationally bottomed on 29 January 2023, versus a 14.4% rise at the 5-city aggregate level:
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Separate monthly data from PropTrack tells a similar story, with Melbourne home values rising by only 17.5% since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, versus a 37.6% increase across the combined capital cities:
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This week, Domain released its house price forecasts for the 2024-25 financial year, which tipped that Melbourne house prices would continue to underperform the nation:
As shown above, Melbourne house prices are tipped to rise by between 0% and 2% next financial year, versus a 3% to 6% rise across the combined capital cities.
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The outlook is even worse than suggested above, since Melbourne has dragged down the national capital city average and the other major capitals are tipped to grow by at least four times as fast as Melbourne.
Clearly, the Victorian state government’s extra land taxes and charges on property investors are working to dampen price growth.
These changes have likely forced many investors to sell as well as driven investor demand interstate.
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This is good news for Victorian first home buyers, since it means that Melbourne housing is becoming relatively less unaffordable to purchase.
Indeed, Melbourne’s median house price has been overtaken by Brisbane’s, which is something that seemed highly unlikely several years ago:
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