Shiny cafes, designer “doodle” dogs, micro breweries. There goes the neighbourhood.
Gentrification is a decades-old global phenomenon that can lead to a suburb being completely transformed.
British sociologist Ruth Glass first coined the term in 1964 to describe the displacement of London’s working-class residents by wealthier newcomers.
“Once this process of gentrification starts in a district it goes on rapidly until all or most the occupiers are displaced and the whole social character of the district is changed,” she wrote.
And today, the process is more or less the same.
Wealthier people move into previously poorer areas, pushing out residents who already live there as rents, housing and cost-of-living rises.
And as housing has become more of an asset, rather than a place to live, experts say gentrification is now “a far more wicked problem”.
So, how do you tell if your suburb is next in the gentrification firing-line?
Stages of gentrification
William Thackway, who worked on a machine learning model to predict gentrification with UNSW City Futures Research Centre, says there are typically three waves of gentrification.
It historically took around five to 10 years for the first wave to set in and you start seeing the symptoms, he told the ABC.
But these days, it may be accelerating.
- 1.The displacement of lower income residents, which can often be artists or people with less stable employment types.
- 2.The physical transformation of the neighbourhood — mostly through the upgrading of housing and commercial spaces.
- 3.The changing cultural character of the neighbourhood, which can also push into “hyper gentrification” — an area has transformed from industrial or working class, into a luxury suburb.
The main drivers of gentrification
There are multiple forces that push and drive gentrification.
Sydneysiders may choose to move to Melbourne because they can essentially get a 20 to 30 per cent discount on property prices.
And then, within a city context, people may be attracted to an area for its amenities, character, proximity to the city, beaches, or good transport.
Transport and accessibility
An area can start to gentrify when it becomes more connected, or there’s new development.
“If there’s new train lines or express lines to an area, then we see what’s called transit-oriented development around those new transport hubs,” Dr Thackway said.
“You get the creation of new amenities, such as universities, schools, and shopping centres, which can make an area more desirable.
“And therefore, it’s more likely wealthier residents will see it as desirable place to live.”
Development may also be in the form of an influx of mid- to high-rise apartment buildings, which can make it an ideal market for investors and bump up prices for rents.
Attractiveness
Sidh Sintusingha, a landscape architecture academic at the Melbourne School of Design, said a change in narrative is often associated with an area’s new attraction.
“Real estate developers and agents smell opportunities fast,” he said.
“They change the narrative of a place, so it becomes less of a ‘slum’ and instead a new urban culture and lifestyle area.”
Take Melbourne’s inner-north: the city once had a clear wealth divide determined by the Yarra River.
Old money and grand houses were south of the Yarra, while the north of the river was dominated by the working class.
Early migrants from Southern Europe — namely Italy and Greece — clustered in northern neighbourhoods such as Carlton, Fitzroy, Clifton Hill and Northcote for the cheaper property.
But being about 5km from the CBD, those multicultural neighbourhoods became viewed as “vibrant” and prime for investment and renovation, Dr Sintusingha said.
They are now among some of Melbourne’s most expensive.
“Australia’s café culture essentially started with the Italians on Lygon Street (in Carlton),” Dr Sintusingha said.
“It becomes a new narrative … With that narrative shift then often comes planning tools and investment in infrastructure.”
Hover over the maps to see a suburb’s stage of gentrification.
The ripple effect
When developing the machine learning prediction model, Dr Thackway said one of the biggest factors for gentrification was “spill over”.
If one suburb becomes gentrified, then the surrounding areas are likely to follow suit.
“As you get one suburb becoming gentrified, people become displaced because rents or mortgage repayments are too expensive, and they then look to the next closest affordable sub suburb,” he said.
“Particularly in Sydney, you have a gentrification ripple effect, which is sort of flowing out from the CBD.”
The UNSW research found that due to spill-over, gentrification is predicted to keep pushing even further out from the city centre.
Previously, the rings of gentrification were in 5-10km rings around the Sydney CBD, but that is expected to expand to 10-20km.
Research from the University of Queensland, released in 2020, identified similar trends.
The innermost suburbs of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne were “relatively stable and affluent”, UQ planning researcher Dr Dorina Pojani said.
Instead, the highest levels of gentrification were occurring 5-15km from the CBDs.
Signs you’re getting gentrified
Other potential indicators of gentrification include lowering crime levels and shifts in demographics.
If there are more professionals moving into the area, or people with occupations with a higher educational requirement, it’s likely the neighbourhood is set for change.
Data released by the Australian Urban Observatory (AUO) last year, largely used census information from 2016-2021 to assess the changing proportions of income groups, together with housing and rental costs, to determine affordability in major cities.
It then mapped areas where lower and mixed-income households have been priced out by higher-income households or are at risk of being priced out.
Dr Thackway said an increase in married couples in an area also lead to a higher prediction the area will gentrify, according to the UNSW model.
“On the flip-side, an increase in divorced people, or an increase in one-parent families is an indicator of an area moving downwards in terms of the socio-economic makeup,” he said.
Advancements in predictive models can add layers such as housing and business data, and even Airbnb listings, to pick up even more subtle social factors that lead to gentrification.
Because having a combination of those factors can lead to a clearer picture of whether an area is shifting, Dr Thackway said.
Not everyone will be wanting to trawl through Census data to see if suburb is pushing into “exclusive” territory, but research has shown that you can also spot emerging gentrification through physical changes.
“Coffee shops, yoga studios, an increase in cycleways, an increase in green spaces and amenities have all in separate studies shown to have a statistical correlation with gentrification,” Dr Thackway said.
Based on demographic markers, some analysts have even joked that if you want to tell if a suburb is changing, you should look at the dogs.
Are there more designer dogs around, or couples with a puppy rather than a baby?
They may have more income to spend on property or renovations if they don’t have a family yet.
‘A wicked problem’
Dr Sintusingha said the housing affordability crisis may be further exacerbating the harms associated with gentrification.
“Traditionally, you could actually rent in a nice area, but now now you can’t,” he said.
“It has become a far more wicked problem now and a bigger challenge to address, if we can ever resolve it.”
If you look at any real estate blog or newsletter, you will likely see articles identifying gentrifying suburbs, telling property investors to “get in while you can”.
By this stage, it’s generally too late to implement strategies to prevent or mitigate displacement of vulnerable people in those areas, Dr Thackway said.
“Often the challenge is identifying gentrification early enough so you can implement strategies to reduce displacement before it’s not too late,” he said.
“You need time to generate legitimate social and political support for those strategies. “
Beyond the displacement of original residents, a harm of gentrification is “loss of place”, Dr Sintusingha said.
Earlier this year, the High Street that connects Melbourne’s inner north suburbs of Northcote, Thornbury and Preston was dubbed the “coolest in the world” by Time Out, beating strips in Tokyo, Berlin, and New York.
Thornbury has been known for its large migrant community.
There is still a family-owned Greek market, and social clubs where you can see old men gathered around tables playing traditional card games.
But there’s been an influx of “hipster influences” in recent years, Dr Sintusingha said.
“More of those older Greek, Italian businesses are slowly disappearing,” he said.
For gentrification to be done better, he says the approach needs to be place-driven, involving councils and the local government to enhance the character or an area — not overtake it.
And to protect the “intangible heritage”, Dr Sintusingha said.
“Culture that is not a heritage or history that is tied to the buildings. It’s tied to the people.”