More vapers will almost certainly be pushed into the black market when vape retailers are shut down from Monday and access is restricted to pharmacies, criminal experts warn.
The federal government is due to vote on a bill that will make pharmacies the only legal outlet to buy vapes, with prescriptions required for adults until October, when they will become available behind the counter.
Professor of Criminology David Bright said the situation was “dynamic” but that the planned sales ban would drive more people to black market vapes.
“It’s one of the most likely outcomes of the current circumstance. We know that what happens is that illicit markets grow from that combination of consumer demand and some type of prohibition,” Professor Bright said.
“When consumers want a particular product and that product is not available legally, then illicit markets open up.”
Former AFP detective superintendent Rohan Pike, who helped to establish the first tobacco strike force, said Australia had a “bad history” of being able to shut down the tobacco black market, and there was no evidence authorities would be capable of shutting down the illicit vape trade.
Mr Pike said how many people would turn to the black market would largely depend on the price of legal and illegal vapes.
“It partially depends on the difference in the price settings between what the chemists are going to offer and what the criminals offer just down the street,” he said.
“We’re yet to see what the price point is going to be and that’s the major difference that consumers look for.”
For some consumers, it would also be a question of convenience.
Professor Bright added even if pharmacists agreed to stock vapes — something many say they do not want to do — people will continue with what they know.
“What we’re likely to see is consumers continuing to attempt to purchase products at the same places they purchased them previously. I think there is generally knowledge amongst consumers of these products about where they have been available, and where they might still be available.
“If someone has to go to a pharmacy or engage in behaviours they don’t normally engage in, they might just see it as too much of a hassle and seek other, easier, paths to get access to products.
Professor Bright said the government was walking a “difficult line” between responding to health issues and law enforcement issues.
Health Minister Mark Butler said the government would not be setting prices on the private market, though in the distant future it could consider listing vapes on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, noting other smoking cessation products were available through the PBS.
Coalition pushes taxes and regulation instead of ban
Since the government and Greens announced their deal, the Coalition has advocated an alternative proposal to instead regulate and tax vapes like tobacco, and step up enforcement of illegal vaping.
Shadow Health Minister Anne Ruston said the government should be “making sure that we don’t force existing vapers to the black market”.
“Consenting adults clearly have made a choice that they wish to vape and we need to make sure that their access to those vapes is in a way that is not forcing them to the black market,” Senator Ruston said.
“The reality is, if you want to be serious about stopping children getting access to vapes, you have to be serious about enforcement, and that’s what our policy will do.”
Mr Butler said on Tuesday the “tax and regulate” model was considered and rejected.
“I’m not willing to raise the white flag on a product that has been deliberately targeted at recruiting young kids to nicotine addiction,” Mr Butler said.
However, the Coalition says it does not intend to stand in the way of the vape sales ban, though it will attempt to amend the bill.
The Pharmacy Guild wants the government to revert to its original plan, but the government has not indicated it will walk back the Greens deal.
Mr Pike said he was a proponent of regulation over prohibition, with the key being to find a price point that cuts criminals out of the market.
“We’ve managed to do it with other drugs like alcohol, so I think it’s doable, we just need the willpower,” Mr Pike said.
Professor Bright said he was unsure however about the Pharmacy Guild’s fears that they could become the targets of organised crime if they became the sole stockists of vapes.
He noted pharmacists already stocked items such as methadone that were in demand on the black market, and that had not made them regular targets of ram raids or other organised crime activity.
Mr Pike agreed that it seemed unlikely, but he noted the changes would in essence be putting pharmacists in competition with criminals.