Ray and Shayno: Tips, analysis for all 11 races at Rosehill

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RAY’S BEST BET

R3 No. 7: Father’s Day

VALUE BET

R11 No. 11: Bojangles

SHAYNO’S BEST BET

R7 No. 3: Bold Mac

VALUE BET

R8 No 1: King Of Florida

ROSEHILL GARDENS

R1: Midway Hcp (1300m)

Ray Thomas: Tough opener, Shayno, but I’m going with Cruel Summer. He has been freshened putting three solid Midway runs together, scoring over the Rosehill 1300m before a second placing at Randwick and his third at the Newcastle stand-alone. He likes to lead and dominate his races and isn’t badly weighted after Molly Bourke’s 3kg claim. Navy Blood was very good first-up then struggled at Randwick. He’s had a month between runs and a tick-over trial so he’s expected to bounce back here. Emmadella is a lightly-raced filly improving every start and gets her chance from a favourable draw. Jumeirah Beach is resuming after a career-best campaign and should sprint well fresh.

Shayne O’Cass: Sara Ryan bought Cirebon online for $14,000 in August last year, RT, and has won three times in six starts with him. Good effort that. He’s a first-up winner and his trials were good. Zoukerino was the eye-catcher in the Midway here two weeks ago. Aarron Bullock sticks for obvious reasons. Clarry Conners (and I) have always liked Peace Officer. Look at some of the races he ran in as a two-year-old! So far as Saturday is concerned, the drier track makes a huge difference to him.

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R2: TAB Highway (1500m)

Thomas: Agirlsbestfriend settled at the rear of the field and went wide on the turn before running on for third behind the brilliant Know Thyself in a Highway two weeks ago. The winner was far too good for his rivals but Agirlsbestfriend ran very well first-up and will take improvement from that run. Shihab was back with Agirlsbestfriend on the turn but stayed on the rails and got the run through to claim second, albeit more than five lengths behind the winner. He’s value at double figure odds. Cranky Harry ran well for a close second at the Doomben midweeks which is always good form for a Highway. Cenotes is working his way back to form.

* Racenet iQ’s James Molony’s tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens Saturday

O’Cass: Should Associate win, he would be Danielle Seib’s eighth Highway winner. His run in the Highway here first-up was as good as anything in the race and better than most. He’s a Wild Card winner (and what a win!) and is another one who will appreciate Soft rather than Heavy. Concur with what all you said about Agirlsbestfriend, RT. Know Thyself is so far above Highway level and compare their two runs and Marc Quinn’s mare did a heroic job to get even that close to him at the finish. Silver Halo was underwhelming in that same race but she’s a good filly.

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R3: Stayer’s Cup (2400m)

Thomas: Father’s Day comes off successive seconds at Randwick and Kensington when he led for a long way only to be run down late. He should be at his peak after three runs from a spell and his last start effort over 2400m will have toughened him for this race. Shayno, Naval Commission is flying with three wins in succession and seemingly improving each time. He won under 59kg last start and drops 7kg for this race. Bonny Ezra did win the Gold Coast Cup three starts back and will find this grade more to his liking. Gan Teorainn is a one-paced mare but ran her best race for ages when she worked to the line nicely for third to Sir Lucan in the Winter Cup which stands her in good stead for this race.

O’Cass: Chris Waller-Yulong mare Gan Teorainn has raced circa 2400m twice. She was third in the 2500m Archer Stakes to Kalapour at Flemington last spring and just two week ago, ran third in the Winter Cup here. The worrying thing about her is that she has only won one from 19 but she has a few things going for her on Saturday -home track, fit, distance, jockey, weight and Soft seems to be in her sweet spot. I thought Waller would just about make a clean sweep of the Stayer’s Cup with Gan Teorainn’s stablemates Kureder and Bonny Ezra both capable of figuring.

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R4: Prague Yearlings Hcp (1800m)

Thomas: Amberite, the former New Zealander, has impressed in two Australian starts, winning at Flemington then looking home at Caulfield only to be collared right on the line by Foujita San. Amberite comes back slightly in distance and looks well suited. Decadent Tale was aided by a gun ride to run down November Falls in a Randwick Midway last start. She doesn’t win out of turn but is usually very competitive in this grade. One Aye has charged home for successive seconds at Warwick Farm and Randwick. She’s racing well and is way over the odds. Nana’s Wish was disappointing at Randwick last start but is worth another chance.

O’Cass: Unanimous was knocked down, or perhaps shut down, is a better way of putting it, first-up at Randwick. He stayed at 1400m, I presume because he more or less missed the first run back because of the interference. In that second run at 1400m, he raced like a horse ready for the step up and here he is at 1800m now. For Victory has never raced better. Just not sure he got the 2000m on a Heavy 9 last start so back to 1800m on the drier track might well see him bounce back big time.

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R5: The Agency Real Estate Hcp (1400m)

Thomas: Ha Ha Ha, the former Irish mare and not the Golden Slipper winner, made a very good Australian debut when she led early then rallied gamely when challenged in the straight to finish second to Amati. With natural improvement from that run, she should go close here. Aberlour is a big watch, Shayno. She is a dual stakes winner in New Zealand and makes her debut here for new trainer Joe Pride. There was a lot to like about her Warwick Farm trial win last week and she will be in the mix. African Daisy was just run down late when resuming at Warwick Farm and can only improve. She races well on this track. Bakerloo has never been in better form.

O’Cass: I agree with everything you said RT, particularly about Ha Ha Ha rallying gamely and the natural improvement. But I am firmly with your ‘big watch’, this NZ-import Aberlour. Just for the record, she won a Maiden on New Year’s Day and then collected the Gore Guineas and Southland Guineas at her next two starts. Yep, I loved the trials too. Outside of those two, I could see Anagain flashing again (no pun intended), She just doesn’t win often enough but I will say, her ‘numbers’ are very good at the track and the trip.

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R6: Precise Air Hcp (1100m)

Thomas: In Flight was aided by a very good Jay Ford ride but she showed real determination to finish too strongly for One Destiny at Rosehill. The runner-up has since won at Warwick Farm to frank the form. In Flight is developing a tidy race record and she rates highly here. Flightcrew has struck a rich vein of form with three wins (and two placings) from five starts this campaign. She’s very genuine and drawn to get her chance. Cosmonova is a stablemate of In Flight and comes off a disappointing first-up effort behind One Destiny. She is definitely capable of sharp improvement. Jambalaya caught the eye charging home into third in a strong form race when resuming. She’s going to be hard to beat even from her wide barrier.

O’Cass: Yes, the wide barrier, that’s my only concern with Jambalaya, RT. Interesting that he led at his first three starts then first-up, at Randwick, he was 11th of 14 at the turn and as you say, made up all that ground to finish third behind two very good winter types in Fleetwood and The Black Cloud. This looks a fast-run race (if they all show up) and that could set it up for an ambush led by a horse like Disneck. I still remember him running a really good race on debut in the Golden Gift here and he’s won twice at Rosehill since. South Of India has ‘a winning draw’ if he is good enough at this level.

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R7: W J McKell Cup (2000m)

Thomas: Waterford didn’t appreciate the very heavy track conditions last start and failed to run on as expected when unplaced at Randwick. He steps out to 2000m for the first time but is back at Rosehill where he has been very effective. The firmer track suits and Nash Rawiller did get the best out of him to win on this track three starts back. The danger is Touristic. He returned to winning form at Mornington last start and is at value odds. Golden Path finished hard to run down Father’s Day at Randwick, drops 3kg and this is a winnable race. Bold Mac showed a return to form last start to just miss a place behind Ruby Flyer with Waterford sixth.

O’Cass: I have always liked Bold Mac for some reason, RT, so I usually hone in on him in anything he runs in. That being the case, I could catalogue as many good runs as luckless runs on his C.V which by the way, boasts eight wins and eight placings from 37 starts. One of those placings was his second in this race last year and he’s going as well in 2024 to my humble eye. Golden Path has paid his way up in Sydney. He is in another suitable and winnable race on the weekend. Waterford and Super Strike are major players.

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R8: Racing For Good On July 13 Hcp (1400m)

Thomas: Pure Alpha is lightly-raced but very promising and comes out of the midweeks where he had to check off heels in the straight and still reeled in the leaders to win comfortably. This is another test for him but he’s drawn reasonably well and should get every chance. Little Cointreau charged home to win well first-up at Canterbury then tried hard when third to the smart Captain Furai at Rosehill. Racing well but has drawn out wide. Elouyou hasn’t missed a place in seven starts, he’s drawn the rails and will be in this for a long way. Headley Grange was fourth to Pure Alpha last start and does meet that horse 5kg better at the weights.

O’Cass: Like one here in the Nature Strip colours, King Of Florida, from the Waller stable. His resume pegs him as a miler. I see him more winning The Gong than the Doncaster Mile, that is to say, I am sure he will make it to a higher grade down here but let’s not go crazy! Pure Alpha? Ditto to what you reckon. Silvanito gets in well with the claim and from a good draw. Can see Headley Grange finishing like a train here.

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R9: TAB Handicap (1500m)

Thomas: I’mintowin took the lead on the turn but could not hold off the in-form Franz Josef when resuming over 1500m here two weeks ago. Fitter now and he’s ready to win. Akasawa comes off a luckless third in the Gunnedah Cup under 65.5kg and drops 6.5kg here. Tough and genuine, he will be very competitive but has drawn off the track. Testator Silens has been improved by two runs from a spell and put the writing on the wall with his game second at Rosehill over 1300m last start. Caesars Palace ran very well first-up and will be improved.

O’Cass: Fortune is an old-fashioned barber shop tip, all the avid trial watchers are talking him up and for good reason. Even without taking the trials into account, the horse has very good form over in France and importantly, he was a narrow margin away from being unbeaten first-up. I liked Deficit first-up at the odds but that was before it got to a Heavy 9. Forgive him but don’t forget him.

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R10: Petaluma Hcp (1800m)

Thomas: Franz Josef responded impressively under pressure and ran down I’mintowin over 1500m last start. He’s won four from five, should nearly be unbeaten, and the way he attacked the line last start suggests he should run a strong 1800m. Kapakiri resumed with a third placing behind Franz Jozef over 1500m here earlier this month. He gets out to 1800m which suits and meets Franz Jozef 2.5kg better at the weights. Bear On The Loose has won three of his five English starts and he’s trialling well enough to suggest he will be competitive here. Camaguey hasn’t been far away in recent starts and is over the odds.

O’Cass: Another well-credentialed import making his Australian debut has caught my attention, RT, namely Don Diego De Vega. I suppose with all them you have to take them on trust and watch the market but his French form would take him into stakes races here in Australia. Expecting Our Anchorage to get a lot closer to Franz Josef this time than last.

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R11: Rosehill Bowling Club Hcp (1200m)

Thomas: Bojangles followed two very good efforts at Hawkesbury including his second in the Guineas at the stand-alone meeting with a luckless sixth to the in-form Elson Boy at Scone. He was held up for a run at the top of the straight but was charging through the pack late. He’s drawn to get the right run and gets in well after the claim. If Givara gets a start, I want to be on him each way. He was very good when resuming but is way over the odds. Kazou is a fast mare and Jedibeel is in outstanding form but both will need luck from their wide barriers.

O’Cass: You’ve been around a while RT, when was the last exacta 24 and 23 in Sydney? Never? Might not happen on Saturday either given my top pick Ezekeil is fifth emergency and my danger Smashing Eagle is the sixth reserve!