Essendon has started shakily in its attempt to avoid a repeat of last year’s collapse in the second half of the season, following a disappointing defeat at the hands of an “overpowering” Geelong on Saturday night.
The Bombers have now lost 19 of their past 22 games against the Cats, but more worryingly, they have dropped three of their past four games as pundits again question their September credibility.
The Dons hold a formidable 9-5-1 record after 15 games, but they are now 1-1-5 against top-eight sides — with losses to Sydney, Carlton, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and now Geelong — giving cause for concern as they aim to eradicate a 20-year finals win drought in 2024.
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Bombers robbed by controversial calls | 00:30
The Bombers are desperately trying to avoid last year’s fate, when they entered the bye 8-5 before closing out their season 3-7 to miss out on finals football.
“That (Cats loss) had huge ramifications, and we marked that at the start of the game,” triple Coleman medallist Jack Riewoldt told Fox Footy post-game on Saturday evening.
Three-time All-Australian Eddie Betts added: “The Bombers, they won the clearances (46-38), they won the inside-50 count (60-56), but the second half of Geelong — they just overpowered them.”
While they might have triumphed in a few key categories, the Dons were outpossessed (-28), almost 15 per cent less efficient going inside 50, were -29 in uncontested possessions and turned the ball over nine more times than the Cats on Saturday, creating a clear path for a Geelong victory.
“We didn’t set up behind the ball, got transitioned, you don’t get a scoring opportunity and it goes down the other end and (they) score,” Brad Scott said post-match.
“We just had a patch there where we lost total control of the game — that can happen, through a variety of factors — what I’m most disappointed about is we lost momentum and then we lost our composure.
“Things go against you in games of footy all the time, whether it’s the opposition doing great things or other things that happen that are outside your control … the only thing you can do is control your response to it, and our response tonight was really disappointing — (it was) a step back in that area for us.”
Cats kick clear of Bombers at a wet MCG | 02:43
Essendon’s percentage — 99.0, which is the worst of the current top-12 teams — is an evident concern as it aims to secure a finals seed.
“That’s the worrying sign,” Riewoldt said after the game. “We had the ladder up at the start of the game — we’re looking at 13th, where Hawthorn sits, all the way up to probably … Carlton in second with 40 points.
“You win a trot of three and you start to make your way into the eight — the flipside of that is they’ve only won one of their last four, and that was against the West Coast Eagles, so you lose a trot of three and you could quickly find yourself outside of the eight.
“Essendon has that draw (against Collingwood), so that sort of makes their percentage a little bit irrelevant … (but) that’s a worrying sign, 99.0 per cent, and tonight the 45-point victory to Geelong has really hurt that from Essendon’s point of view.”
However, the Bombers’ remaining schedule of games bodes well for them — Scott’s men travel interstate just one more time in the home-and-away season; to Brisbane in Round 24.
Between now and their final game of the campaign, the Dons play three more matches at the MCG and four more at Marvel Stadium — but they come against bona fide opposition in Collingwood (Round 17), Melbourne (Round 18), Fremantle (Round 21), Gold Coast (Round 22), Sydney (Round 23) and the Lions.
Albeit while the MCG is a familiar stomping ground for Essendon, it is now a lowly 9-1-18 (32 per cent win rate) in 28 games at the venue since the start of 2020.
A telling September litmus test against the Magpies awaits Scott’s brigade next Friday night, with Collingwood coming off a loss of its own to Gold Coast.