NFL draft grades are a popular exercise immediately following a draft. Those grades are distributed based on guesses about how college prospects will convert to the NFL. While that’s a fun projection exercise, they don’t mean a ton in the scope of a player’s career.
What we like to do here is re-grade a draft once the players have three full NFL seasons under their belts. It allows a large enough sample size to give a grade to the pick based on actual NFL production.
The Trey Lance draft wound up being a fascinating one for the 49ers because it’s a little backward. The top of their draft class isn’t awesome, but they hit some home runs later in the process.
Here are the new grades of the 49ers’ 2021 class:
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Yikes!
After dealing a trio of first-round picks and a third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins to move up to No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft, the 49ers selected Lance out of North Dakota State. Inexperience meant Lance needed to play, but San Francisco’s timeline didn’t line up with his and injuries ultimately derailed his chances to succeed with the 49ers. He wound up getting traded during the 2023 preseason.
Grade: F
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This pick is a good example of why we wait three years before really grading a draft pick. Banks after Year 1 looked like a failed pick. He primarily saw special teams action as a rookie and it didn’t look like he’d be able to fit with the 49ers’ offensive line. However, he snagged the starting job in Year 2 and outside of Trent Williams has been San Francisco’s most consistent offensive lineman over the last two seasons.
Grade: B+
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Thomas is a confounding player. His up-and-down rookie year ended with him looking like a surefire starter in the 49ers secondary. He was mostly a non-factor in Year 2, and then last season he was in and out of the starting lineup before ultimately being benched in the postseason. He could wind up starting in Year 4 if he can harness the highs he’s experienced over his first three years. That he hasn’t been able to nail down a starting job by now though isn’t a great sign going into the final year of his rookie deal.
Grade: C-
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It sounded like Moore, a career left tackle at Western Michigan, would move to the interior as a pro because his size profiled more as a guard. Alas, he stayed at tackle and has operated as the second or third OT off the bench during his career. He hasn’t been great in his limited action, but it also hasn’t been a disaster. At this point it looks like Moore will battle for a reserve OT spot which isn’t a bad result from a Round 5 pick.
Grade: C
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Lenoir is another example of why we need to wait before issuing grades on picks. He was up-and-down his first year, but in Year 2 finished strong with a very good performance in the postseason before breaking out last season as a starter and versatile cornerback who could play outside or in the slot. It looked like Lenoir could be on his way to getting let go before Year 3, and now he looks on track for a sizable free agent contract in 2025.
Grade: A
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Initially Hufanga looked to be on a fast track for special teams contributions. His athletic testing put a question mark on his ability to consistently play defensively. Hufanga did play special teams as a rookie, but he earned a First-Team All-Pro nod in 2022 as the team’s starting strong safety and erased all doubts about his ability to play the position as a pro. A torn ACL cut Hufanga’s 2023 campaign short, but he’s still an excellent player, especially as a late Round 5 choice.
Grade: A
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Players like Mitchell are why some teams have a hard time paying big money for running backs. Mitchell was a late Day 3 pick who broke out as a rookie in place of the injured Raheem Mostert. Health has been the only thing holding Mitchell back. He’s played just 27 games in three years, but he’s consistently been in the mix atop the depth chart when he’s able to suit up. Even an unhealthy version of Mitchell gets a strong grade though since getting any production from a late sixth-round pick is a win.
Grade: A