It’s been widely accepted amongst the footy public that Collingwood have a serious edge about them, but are they starting to lose their aura?
Brisbane Lions champion Jonathan Brown believes something is up at the AIA Centre and that teams are starting to work out the recipe behind Collingwood’s success in close games in recent years.
The Fox Footy expert believes Pies coach and former teammate Craig McRae is becoming “frustrated” with where the reigning premiers are right now.
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“I’m just putting something on the table here, I can sense a sense of frustration from Craig McRae,” Brown said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.
“After their performance on Saturday, we know what happened a couple of weeks ago against North Melbourne where they just got over the line, I’m sensing an underlying frustration coming out of Collingwood from the coaching staff, especially Craig McRae.
“He’s got a steeliness about him at the moment, he’s not sort of a jock to the press conferences anymore… they’re just starting to roll the dice too much for me.”
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The Pies have trailed at three-quarter-time in 28 of their past 66 games a figure of over 42% which is remarkable when you consider their recent success.
“No question about it, you keep rolling the dice, eventually you’re going to get nicked on the line and that’s what Gold Coast did, and they were able to beat them,” Brown said.
“I think they’ve got quite a few problems going on.”
Brown’s co-host, Melbourne champion Garry Lyon asked: “We’ve been celebrating this, now you’re saying that’s a watch?”
“That’s far too much Gaz, the law of averages say it’s going to catch up with you, especially when there’s other problems, fundamental problems going on within your team. Eventually you get beaten,” Brown responded.
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In the past six weeks, Collingwood rank 13th in the competition for points against, 14th for contested possession differential and 16th for inside 50 differential.
“They’re getting beaten around the contest, their forward connection has been pretty ordinary and their defenders are getting ambushed,” Brown said.
“For me, it’s a really big concern, they lost on the weekend, you start losing these close games, you lose your aura, the teams that come up against you in those last quarters aren’t as worried, because you don’t feel like you’re paralysed as much.
“The Gold Coast were able to move the ball and you need to attack, we saw Gold Coast, especially in the first two and a half, three quarters, when they took Collingwood on, they got through and they were able to score.”
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Hawthorn champion Jordan Lewis highlighted how teams are “going to work” on Collingwood’s strategies late in close games.
“Because Collingwood has been in this position so many times, there’s a lot of data and a lot of vision to go to work on,” Lewis said.
“If you are an opposition side, this is something you would touch on. If Collingwood are behind, this is what they want to do, they want to attack the ball in this area, certain players move to certain positions, it’s a recipe that has been repeated and has been really effective for them, but are sides now understanding the mode in which they go to, it is organised chaos, but there is a pattern in which they do it in.”
Collingwood are currently placed sixth on the AFL ladder but have won just two of their last five games, leaving them with a record of 8-5-2.
The Pies face an extremely tough run home, facing seven finals contenders in their last eight games.
“It’s as tough a run home as you’re going to get,” Brown said.
“Their last eight games, seven are contending… don’t flirt with your form boys! It’s a big watch for me, they’ve got to get going.”
Collingwood take on Essendon in a Friday night blockbuster at the MCG in round 17.