Sydney leads three clubs in the sweet spot of the premiership window profile as we move towards the home stretch of the home and away season.
Seventeen of the last 19 premiers have been in the flag window — ranked top six in the AFL in points for and against — while every premier in the last 19 years has sat top six for defence.
So as simple as it may seem, it’s a proven formula.
Watch every game of every round this Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE with no ad-breaks during play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial today >
SEE THE FULL PREMIERSHIP WINDOW RANKINGS BELOW
“You have to be top six for scoring and points against and all (of the last) 19 premiership teams have been above the line (top six defensively),” Demons great Garry Lyon said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.
The first-placed Swans, despite dropping just their second game of 2024 against Fremantle, couldn’t be sitting prettier, ranked first both offensively and defensively in a testaments to their dominance this season.
Boyd overturns one-match ban, cops fine | 00:51
Only Brisbane, who’s won four-straight games as part of a massive turnaround in its season to surge into the top eight, and the Western Bulldogs, who are currently ninth on the ladder, are also in the premiership window after Round 16.
However triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown believes his former club has to improve defensively to continue its push.
“Brisbane has to be careful,” Brown said.
“We know they’re on fire, but they’ve got to tighten up defensively, otherwise they’ll slip out of that.”
Hawthorn champion Jordan Lewis labelled the Dogs the “surprising one that sticks out” despite Luke Beveridge’s side also sitting in the premiership window after Round 12.
Cripps not in agreeance with AFL | 05:00
After an up and down start to the campaign, the Dogs have won five of their past seven games to suddenly look like not only a finals contender, but a potential flag smoky.
Fremantle, Melbourne and St Kilda round out the other clubs sitting in the top six defensively, while Collingwood, Carlton and Geelong are other top six offensive teams.
The second-placed Blues, despite sitting second offensively, are perhaps the most surprising team not in the premiership window due to their defensive shortcomings across the entire season.
It includes Carlton rocketing into red-hot form recently including some calls it’s overtaken Sydney as the premiership favourites — having won its past five games by an average of 43 points — with its profile fast ascending.
“Carlton is the big one, they are going in the right direction. (Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne) tells me by Round 20 they’ll be up in that premiership window,” Lyon added.
Have Collingwood lost their aura? | 03:17
At the other end of the scale, bottom three sides North Melbourne, West Coast and Richmond sit bottom three in both offence and defence.
Meanwhile Essendon, who’s dropped two of its last three games to be at risk of sliding out of the top four, is ranked just 14th defensively and 10th offensively.
See how every side currently ranks below …
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW RANKINGS AFTER ROUND 16
Almost all AFL premiers ranked in top six in both categories
POINTS SCORED
1. Sydney Swans
2. Carlton
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Brisbane Lions
5. Geelong Cats
6. Collingwood
7. GWS Giants
8. Gold Coast Suns
9. Port Adelaide
10. Essendon
11. Fremantle Dockers
12. Adelaide Crows
13. Hawthorn
14. Melbourne
15. St Kilda
16. North Melbourne
17. West Coast Eagles
18. Richmond
POINTS AGAINST
1. Sydney Swans
2. Fremantle Dockers
3. Melbourne
4. Brisbane Lions
5. St Kilda
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Adelaide Crows
8. GWS Giants
9. Hawthorn
10. Gold Coast Suns
11. Port Adelaide
12. Collingwood
13. Carlton
14. Essendon
15. Geelong Cats
16. West Coast Eagles
17. Richmond
18. North Melbourne