Collingwood seems to have lost its defining trait – but in reality, it’s just acting like a normal footy team.
Plus why North may never go south again, the Essendon off-season move driving their rise and the irony of a complaint from the Cats.
The big issues from Round 17 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!
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TRUTH BEHIND MAGPIES ‘LOSING THEIR AURA’
For two years, plenty of AFL experts have been waiting for Collingwood to come back to earth in close games.
They held off the weight of numbers long enough to win a premiership. But it may finally be time to accept reality – with Jonathan Brown’s claim the Magpies have “lost their aura” making more and more sense.
For the second straight week Collingwood lost a close one, falling to Essendon by 12 points after failing to complete a frantic late comeback. A week earlier, they actually came back to lead Gold Coast, but it was the Suns who played like the Magpies we’ve gotten used to, kicking two late goals for an 11-point win.
It means the Magpies have won four of their eight close games (decided by two goals or less) in 2024. Which is exactly how we would expect a team to perform.
Are the Magpies ‘lacking that hunger’? | 02:50
There are two draws in that group of games, but remember that both Fremantle and Essendon missed late shots on goal that would’ve put them in front; the Pies were fortunate to escape with two points from each encounter. (Though obviously they were unfortunate to cop that weird free kick that sparked the Freo comeback.)
Everyone wants an explanation for what’s going wrong with the Magpies, and to an extent it’s about their pressure dropping off – they were particularly bad with that against Essendon – plus injuries haven’t kept them at their best.
But they’ve still managed to come back a few times, most notably against North Melbourne a few weeks ago. So why do these results seem so… random?
Because close game performance, over the long term, is random. Being brilliant in close games year after year is not sustainable, nor expected.
Look at Port Adelaide, who were 9-0 in close games across 2020 and 2021 – cue Kane Cornes claiming it was because the team was “mature” and “well coached” – then falling back to 2-7 in 2022, before returning to 6-2 in 2023. Random results.
McRae speaks on failed gameplan | 02:08
You can have one really good year and then have a bad one – or, as the Magpies are doing right now, have a normal one. We won’t use the L-word, but footy fans always underrate the impact of good fortune on a team.
It’s a big factor behind our annual Pythagorean wins article, where we tipped Port Adelaide and Collingwood to decline because of their incredible records in close games, while Geelong was expected to rise.
Well, the Pies are already guaranteed to have a worse win-loss record than last year, while the Power are one loss away from an official decline, and the Cats are one win away from official improvement. (Let’s not mention the other strong tip we made, Adelaide to improve.)
Sometimes things just happen, and we want a clear pattern because that’s what the human brain is wired to find… but those patterns are just noise disguised as signals.
Collingwood might win a few more close games and make the eight. They might lose a few and miss the eight. Either way, it’s just randomness.
Eagles tipped to sack Simpson | 01:25
18TH NO MORE AS YOUNG ROOS STARS DRIVING ‘BRIGHT FUTURE’
North Melbourne is officially off the bottom of the ladder.
The Kangaroos’ upset win over Gold Coast was forecasted by Saints great Leigh Montagna on Fox Footy’s The First Crack, saying: “They will never, ever be on the bottom of the ladder again for about 10 years. This will be the last time we see North Melbourne in 18th spot.”
While it marked just North’s second victory of 2024, it could easily have wins against Collingwood (lost by one point) and Melbourne (lost by three points) too over a promising five-week span.
Heck, the Roos have suddenly emerged as a danger team on the run home.
For since the bye, Alastair Clarkson’s side, led by its blossoming crop of emerging stars, has looked a completely different team to the one that went winless over the first half of the season.
They’re starting to emerge from the other side of the rebuild, with the arrow now pointing up.
“I hope North fans and the footy world can see we’ve turned out game around from the first half of the year and that’s what we’re sticking with,” North Melbourne star Luke Davies-Uniacke said on Fox Footy after Saturday’s win over the Suns.
“It’s contest and pressure footy.”
The Roos have had young talent in recent years, but you couldn’t necessarily see the vision nor was it clear who was going to lead this club’s drive back up the ladder. Now you can.
Harry Sheezel, who hasn’t necessarily drawn the plaudits as other young stars in the league like Nick Daicos and Harley Reid, is arguably every bit as classy, with his mid-season move to the midfield paying massive dividends.
Sheezel racked up 35 touches and kicked a goal against the Suns in another huge performance, while Davies-Uniacke had 30 disposals and a goal to continue his ascension as a bona fide superstar.
Roos outlast Suns to jump off last spot | 01:10
“The future is bright with those two leading the way in the midfield for the next 10 years, my gosh they are special,” Montagna said of Sheezel and Davies-Uniacke.
Western Bulldogs legend Brad Johnson added: “Then you’ve got (Colby) McKercher who on return had 37 (disposals across half back). And they’ve got George Wardlaw back from concussion next week as well, so you add another young superstar to this make-up.
“It’s starting to build nicely.”
The’ve nailed the last two drafts in particular – where the Roos used early picks on Sheezel, Wardlaw and McKercher (who figures to eventually move up the field) – as pieces they can build around long-term.
Having drafted from the midfield out, North’s on-ball group has always had upside and is starting to live up to that potential.
It’s a midfield group rounded out by ruckman and human wrecking ball Tristan Xerri, who’s in All-Australian level form and has taken some big scalps this year in his matchups.
Elsewhere, Charlie Comben’s move to defence has shored up the Roos behind the ball – having conceded an average of just 82.8 points since Round 13 (after 118 points prior to that) – while son of a gun Jackson Archer is also showing great signs.
Individual development aside, there’s a greater hunger and intensity from the Roos and feeling that their youngsters are starting to believe and buy in to the bigger picture.
“You can just see it now means something to them,” Port Adelaide 300-gamer Kane Cornes said on Channel 9’s Sunday Footy Show.
“They’re really hard to play against and getting after the opposition and they’re angry – there’s a bit more of a hard edge to them – the press is in sync and there’s a defensive method.
“And the fans are starting to come along for the ride.”
Humble Clarkson all praise for Suns | 09:37
The win over Gold Coast was a real testament to the group’s growing maturity and character, with Clarkson’s side holding its nerve in the dying minutes when the Suns were trying to run over the top.
“The last few weeks we’ve probably given those leads up and lost. Really proud of the boys to stick to it and get the job done,” Sheezel told Fox Footy post-match.
“The first 18 months Clarko and I have been at the club, we’re just trying to find our DNA and what suits our personnel and the young group of boys we have.
“It probably wasn’t going too well, but we changed it up at the bye and ever since then it’s looking like a good brand of footy holding up. Hopefully we can run with it now.”
Hawthorn champion Dermott Brereton suggested the Roos against Gold Coast didn’t play like a side that was last on the ladder playing a finals contender fighting for its first road win this year.
And really, North hasn’t looked like an 18th-placed team for some time.
“We’re looking for growth in this team,” Brereton observed.
“In the final quarter, (North) held a a slender lead and there were six centre bounces and the Suns took it away five times and (North) defended 18 inside 50s. To me, that says this team is growing and learning from past mistakes where they’ve been run over by the final siren.
“They’re learning on the run here. I cannot state how enjoyable this win was to watch today and see the growth in this team and how they withstood the onslaught in the last quarter.
“Things are starting to turn for them.”
With games left against Richmond and West Coast, there is a very real chance the Kangaroos avoid a fifth consecutive bottom-two finish – which would be a real sign of progress.
Who else could Roos upset on the run home?
– Round 18 v Sydney (SCG)
– Round 19 v Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
– Round 20 v Geelong (Blundstone Arena)
– Round 21 v Richmond (Marvel Stadium)
– Round 22 v West Coast (Blundstone Arena)
– Round 23 v Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
– Round 24 v Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium)
‘That’s just crap’: Rankine ripped | 02:04
EX-FOOTY OPS BOSS’ IRONIC ‘BELLYACHING’ COMPLAINT… AND SYMPATHY FOR LAURA KANE
Geelong chief executive Steve Hocking voiced his “unsettled” feeling about what he labelled “things that have been introduced that don’t need to be introduced” within the game.
The 59-year-old was formerly the league’s football operations boss, having departed his AFL post in 2021 after nearly four years in the scrutinised role.
As questions linger regarding the club and next generation academies, draft points and father-son access, as well as fixturing equalisation, Hocking — now back in clubland — shared his opinion on the state of affairs.
“My personal view is I get a little bit unsettled by this,” he told 3AW at the weekend.
“I can’t believe the bellyaching that’s gone on. I can’t believe the amount of things that have been introduced that don’t need to be introduced.
“I think we’ve got a really good game — I think we need to make sure that we continue to look after the game.
“Even last night, you have a look, there were 81,000 people at the MCG on a really cold night (to watch Collingwood and Essendon). They’re showing up in droves, and the game’s just so rich and so healthy at the moment.”
Perhaps the year’s most controversial alteration was the mid-season change to the holding-the-ball rule interpretation — focused on the ‘reasonable time to dispose of the ball’ element — with Hocking placing an emphasis on the game’s health.
“I think you need to focus on the on-field product and make sure that you’ve got that right, and it stays open, it stays entertaining, it’s accessible to all types of players, (and) you focus on the AFLW,” he continued.
“The talent pathways — I get why they’re doing (it). I seriously don’t understand why we’ve opened it up as wide as what we have, because it’s just invited unnecessary discussion.
“I’m a huge believer (that) if there was one thing I was going to do, I’d continue to just keep putting risk into the game and have it less controlled (so) we have a wonderful game for the next hundred years.”
His comments might be valid, but it’s hard not to see the irony in them, particularly as the man who instigated the divisive ‘stand’ rule in 2021, as well as the 6-6-6 regulation (2019) — both of which fans continue to vociferously debate.
Swans hit with back to back losses | 02:51
Quizzed on the management of the game, Hocking preached patience with the AFL’s executive general manager of football Laura Kane — who hasn’t been in the role a year yet but has been met with a barrage of criticism.
“It’s a really hard role, and I think people don’t realise that,” Hocking said of his former gig. “You’ve got so many stakeholders that you have to stare down, and it’s OK to say no.
“I think it just takes time. In fairness to someone like Laura Kane at the moment, she just needs time.
“I remember in my first week doing a live interview with (Gillon McLachlan), and the appetite to know what I was thinking and what I was going to change (with the game) was just extreme — I’d never experienced anything like that.
“We took over 18 months before we did anything — you don’t actually need to rush to any of that decision-making.
“I think the longer you sit in it the more miles you have on your clock, the greater opportunity you’ve got in navigating the game appropriately.”
While Hocking might have sat idle during his formative stages in charge, Kane has gotten on the front foot in a host of areas.
In addition to holding-the-ball and impending amendments to the draft points system and father-son and academy talent access, Kane and her compatriots made pre-season changes to allow straight-arm blocks in the ruck and teams’ ability to name five players on the interchange.
And there are assuredly more changes coming.
INCREDIBLE save sees Howard in stands | 00:40
DID OFFSEASON TRIP SPARK BOMBER BRILLIANCE?
It’s been a whirlwind season already for Essendon, but it’s fair to say now that a finals berth is theirs to lose on the back of their two-goal win over Collingwood on Friday night.
And if all goes to plan, their September plans will give them a chance at breaking arguably the AFL’s most infamous record in the modern era.
At time of writing, it has been 7,247 days since the Bombers have won a finals match – all the way back in September 2004 against the Melbourne Demons with a five-point victory.
Only St Kilda’s elusive 58-year flag drought tops the Bombers’ incredible record, and in more recent times – Gold Coast’s inability to make finals since its inception in 2011.
As a whole so far this season, the Dons haven’t been convincing – but besides Sydney, who has?
Brad Scott’s side snapped a five-game losing streak against the Pies to now sit pretty in fourth place; with a six-point buffer between them and eighth place.
Having lost three of their last four games heading into Round 17, the pressure was well and truly on, with their only win in that stretch coming against a lowly West Coast in Round 15.
But there has been an intriguing metric that seems to have played a part in their successes in 2024.
Bombers blitz Pies to boost top 4 hopes | 02:26
Their record in games where truly have control over the ball is compelling; in the seven matches this season they have taken 100 or more marks; they’ve won six and drawn one.
“They ended up taking 139 marks, so they just owned the footy — took all the momentum and run (out of the game),” Melbourne great Garry Lyon said on air to Fox Footy after the match.
And in addition, their ability to run out games – even against notorious final-quarter experts like Collingwood – has been building, and they may have a pre-season trip to the US to thank.
Some 14 Bombers made the trip across the Pacific, uniting in Arizona after Jordan Ridley connected with the group Exos Sports, who led Germany’s strength and conditioning program on route to their 2014 World Cup triumph.
Speaking to Fox Footy post-game last Friday night, Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley made comment on their work rate and maturity late in games.
“It felt like more than a 12-point win – it was consolidated after quarter-time; that was the statement performance that we were looking for,” Buckley said.
“We’ve spoken a lot throughout the year about the off-season (overseas) that the Essendon players had – well, they looked the harder, fitter side tonight.
“It’s a long season. We’ve still got seven or eight games to go, so that’s the challenge that every team has, but this Essendon side looks as hard and fit as they did in Round 1 — and they’re getting stronger.”
The Bombers rank around the middle of the top eight in the competition for some crucial stat lines, and still with plenty of room in the engine room for the rest of the season.
Placed third in the competition for inside 50’s and sixth for disposal efficiency and tackles, the Bombers have worked out some key metrics for the most part.
Their rank of 11th for clearances is still a cause for concern, but with the impending return of Darcy Parish from injury, improvement should come with his inclusion.
Scott on Bombers blockbuster win | 05:50
Brad Scott will continue to believe that his side can click more than ever heading towards September, and rightly so – he’s laid the foundation as much as he can since joining the club at the end of 2022.
Asked in his post-match press conference whether the win was up there with one of his most impressive during his time at the club.
“There’s been a few,” Scott said.
“I mean, it’s probably later in the season when the wins seem more important, but I thought it was more just the step forward again.
“(Against) really good opposition, circumstances throughout the game where Collingwood got off to a good start (but) we were able to regain our composure.”
For Essendon to snap their incredible streak in finals with this current list, they need everything to go their way.
But with a fitness kick since Scott’s arrival and a growing presence in the competition, you could argue that this is the most likely the Bombers have looked to win a final since 2004.
Will they? Honestly, who knows – but they probably deserve to now be held (and respected) at the same standard as the other number of teams battling to lock in a top four berth.