AFL’s first coach domino has fallen. Another looms… and no one is off the table — State of Play

The sacking of Adam Simpson as West Coast’s senior coach is set to be the first of several coaching dominos to fall in the coming years.

With the Eagles in the market for Simpson’s replacement, it looks increasingly likely that there will be at least one prominent change in the coaching landscape heading into 2025; if not more.

And with Tasmania lurking in the shadows for their inaugural coach come 2028, everyone is on the market; whether they like it or not.

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Speaking on Wednesday night to Fox Footy’s AFL 360, AFL greats David King and Leigh Montagna discussed the hot-property that West Coast – and particularly Tasmania – will be looking at in the coming months and years.

And regardless of when their contracts of expire, coaches are expected to have more spotlight on them than ever, given the impending merry-go-round that looks set to take place now that the first domino in Simpson has fallen.

“(Craig) McRae and (Chris) Scott (are contracted until) end of 2026, and you’ve got Hinkley, Beveridge and Longmire at the end of next year – potentially longer if they re-sign, (and) if they don’t re-sign, we’ll be tracking that to end of each of its life,” King begun by saying.

“Why isn’t he re-signing? What’s happening here? Could we see another handover type arrangement?”

Now looming as the second key in whole cycle is the whereabouts of West Coast champion Dean Cox, who is currently the understudy of John Longmire up at Sydney as his assistant coach.

With the evident connection to his old club, plus a well-documented relationship with Don Pyke during his time between both the Swans and West Coast, there is every chance Cox leaves Sydney after seven seasons under Longmire.

But, there is also a world where the red and the white throw every penny towards the ruck great if they have grand plans for Cox to take over Longmire at the end of his 2025 contract.

“Crystal ball, spit ball for a sec – do Sydney say: ‘We don’t want to lose Dean Cox, can we sort something else out?’” King continued.

“This is what this sort of pressure builds; you’re talking about the ‘one move creates movement’, and it’s right. The extra tension around Tassie is real, because you’ve got half a dozen names we could all throw up.”

LONGEST SERVING CURRENT COACHES

CHRIS SCOTT – 14 YEARS

Out of contract: 2026

JOHN LONGMIRE – 14 YEARS

Out of contract: 2025

KEN HINKLEY – 12 YEARS

Out of contract: 2025

ADAM SIMPSON – 11 YEARS*

Out of contract: N/A

LUKE BEVERIDGE – 10 YEARS

Out of contract: 2025

CHRIS FAGAN – 8 YEARS

Out of contract: 2025

SIMON GOODWIN – 8 YEARS

Out of contract: 2026

The panel’s attention then turned towards the unfilled position of Tasmania’s maiden coach; who could well be any of the seven longest serving coaches currently in the league – with the addition of either the now-sacked Simpson or former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley.

“The (above) list – that’s almost a priority order,” Montagna noted.

“Chris Scott (and) John Longmire would be your first two phone calls, and then you probably are looking at someone like Ken Hinkley, Adam Simpson, Beveridge that have got all that experience.

“If you talk about Tassie, I think I would like two coaches – you have the senior figurehead that would understand how to set up a club, everything else that encompasses a football club; there’s so much more than just the team.

“Then, I would go and get the best senior assistant or the young assistant coach that hasn’t done it yet, and he’s the one that might drive the VFL team in 2027, and really have the hands on the wheel along with that senior figurehead from 2028 onwards.

“It would be such a big ask setting up a brand-new football club.”

Having coached the Cats and Swans respectively for close to 14 seasons now, Chris Scott and John Longmire are the two masterminds who have played a big role alongside list managers in making sure their club can avoid a dreaded rebuild.

Each coach has achieved the ultimate success at their club; albeit Longmire not since 2012, with Scott’s ironically defeating the Swans coach in his most recent flag in 2022.

But, is there a chance the pair – alongside other well-respected coaches, are ready for a fresh start elsewhere? And for some, a new challenge?

AFL 360 host Gerard Whateley went through the five bigger names on the block, and where he believes they stand in the short-term future at their club.

“The scenario with that coaching list is Chris Scott – does he have in mind a natural stepping off point, or is he going to be Kevin Sheedy, and can bring the next generation through and coach them?” Whateley asked.

“John Longmire – do the Swans think about, do they want to keep Dean Cox? Is there a succession plan which has been so successful before, or are they happy that he’s been there, done his time and they’ll bring somebody else in?

“(With) Ken Hinkley, the bar is clearly make finals, and then probably a little bit more to see the last year of his contract (2025), and then it looks like (Josh) Carr takes over after that.

“Luke Beveridge might be ‘make finals’, or it becomes a really interesting discussion. That’ll be two years straight out. Everybody thinks he would coach again. So, when does he become a commodity in the marketplace?”

“Chris Fagan, I think most of us feel like if you were going to pick the senior figure under Brendan Gale, you would want Chris Fagan, there’s an actual link there. So, when does his time to run the full length to give his team to the whiff of the flag?”

Talk around Tasmania’s first coach will inevitably – and naturally – surround either current coaches or those who have already previously coached an AFL side.

For West Coast’s current coaching vacancy, Nathan Buckley – who hasn’t coached at any level since departing Collingwood in 2021 – was instantly thrown in the spotlight due to his history and profile.

But Herald Sun Chief Football Writer Mark Robinson seemed much more open to the idea of a fresh face in the role – and even included a current playing veteran as a potential target.

“I don’t know if the current coach is the first coach of Tasmania – it’s a whole, brand-new toy, do they go get an old driver?” Robinson questioned.

“Or, do you get a brand-new toy, and you get a brand-new driver with it? Craig McRae came out and revolutionised footy coaching in some ways; do they go and find the next Craig McRae?

“I’d invest a lot in Scott Pendlebury; I’d get a modern-day player out now. I suspect that he should do a couple years of assistant, and then I’d put my hand up if I was Scott Pendlebury – and if I was Tasmania, I would absolutely chase him to say: ‘Hey, we want you to do assistant for a couple years and go.’”

Should Tasmania – or other clubs in the coming years – be looking for a new coach however, the expectation is there will be no shortage of coaches on the market.

With Longmire, Hinkley, Beveridge and Fagan all yet to commit to a club beyond 2025, Simpson’s departure at the Eagles looks to be only scratching the surface in terms of coach movements to come.

“What’s fascinating about this (coaches) list, the next 12 to 24 months, there feels like there’s going to be a lot of turnover; I mean, we’ve spoken a lot about ‘Bevo’ and Fagan and Hinkley (who) are all sort of around the market when their time’s up; there’s going to be a lot of choice,” Montagna added.

“Footy does regenerate – I remember when (Leigh) Matthews and (Denis) Pagan and (Kevin) Sheedy and (Robert) Walls and all these great coaches – who are we going to replace? All these greats come along; footy replaces great players and footy replaces great coaches,” Robinson replied.

“I’m attacking Craig McRae. I’m going for a guy that you know has his hand on the pulse with the younger age,” King ended by saying.

EXPERTS’ TOP TARGETS FOR TASMANIA’S FIRST COACH

LEIGH MONTAGNA

1. Chris Scott

2. John Longmire

3. Luke Beveridge