From a 7-0 ladder leader to an also-ran just struggling to make the eight, is it time for Geelong to answer a question they’ve been delaying for decades?
Plus Ken Hinkley’s seat gets red-hot, the young gun raising his trade value by the week, and a flat response to a bold finals suggestion.
The big issues from Round 15 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!
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TRADE ‘GAMBLE’ AND UNTHINKABLE QUESTION STUBBORN CATS MUST SOON FACE
In the wake of an uncharacteristically poor, heavy loss, Chris Scott remained as defiant and optimistic as ever about Geelong’s short-term and medium-term fortunes.
But soon the Cats’ regenerate-on-the-run approach – which has worked so well for them for nearly two decades – could face its most significant challenge yet.
The Cats on Friday night suffered a 63-point loss to a red-hot, in-form Carlton. It was their fourth-biggest loss under Scott as they conceded their third-highest score – 21.12 (138) – in the coach’s 14-year tenure.
Carlton produced 79 points off Geelong turnovers, 48 points from its defensive half and 41 points from its forward 50 – all season-high numbers for the Blues. And the fact the Cats conceded 21 goals from 58 inside 50s (36%) was “efficiency unheard of for a Geelong team”, according to Fox Footy’s Nathan Buckley.
Buckley post-game pointed to LAB vision of superstar Blues bull Patrick Cripps sprinting away from Geelong midfielders in transition.
“They (the Cats midfielders) are caught on the wrong side of the ball, so there’s no balance at the back of the contest, which puts the first line of defence behind that under even more pressure,” Buckley told Fox Footy.
“Carlton were able to break that balance and first line of pressure of Geelong far too easily. That would be a sign to me of why they’re not defending their back-half as well as they normally do.”
Dangerfield hit with suspension | 00:30
Essendon legend Matthew Lloyd declared the Cats “have holes absolutely everywhere”.
“Poor through the midfield, no real ruckman, Tom Stewart shut down … Zach Guthrie’s not as good when that happens, Zach Tuohy’s really aged and struggling out on a wing, ‘Hawk’ (Tom Hawkins) is a big issue – the injury could be a saviour a little bit for them for what decision they could have had to make on Tom Hawkins,” Lloyd told 3AW post-game.
“They’re in a hole – and it’s hard to see them making the finals from here.”
After winning their first seven games of this season, Scott’s troops are now scrapping to stay in the top eight after a sixth loss from their past seven games. And it was the type of loss that would undoubtedly fuel the naysayers of Geelong’s aggressive, top-up-heavy list approach.
But while Scott envisaged blooding a few debutants in the coming weeks, he remained bullish about what the Cats could still achieve this season and insisted they weren’t about to start “completely losing our composure”.
“While tonight was a bad performance, I don’t think you sit back 8-6 at this stage of the season and think, ‘Oh well, now we’re rebuilding’,” Scott said.
“Haven’t done that for 14 years. Not going to start now.
“What we won’t do is concede and say, ‘Oh well, they (Carlton) are better than us, so now we’ve got to slip back to the pack’ … we’re still optimistic about what we can do.”
Should the Cats’ downward trajectory continue, their list – the most experienced and second-oldest in the competition – will soon come into sharp focus.
On Friday night, the Cats had six players over the age of 33: Mitch Duncan, Gary Rohan, Patrick Dangerfield, Zach Tuohy, Mark Blicavs and Tom Hawkins. Rhys Stanley (33) remains on the sidelines too, while Cam Guthrie (31) has struggled for continuity due to persistent injury setbacks in recent years.
For the Cats to continue to regenerate on the run, they can’t afford mass retirements and/or tough list calls on that aforementioned group of players.
‘Against a red hot team tonight’ | 17:42
“It is changing times. They’ve done a great job of regenerating now for most of the century,” AFL legend Leigh Matthews told 3AW Football.
“There’s always this really basic thing of ‘replacing champions with champions’. It sort of defies logic a little bit. As we know, half a dozen years ago, they got in Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron, so they got a couple of champions in as a couple of champions were going out. But it’s very hard to keep that cycle going of ins and outs.”
The Cats have been heavily linked to Western Bulldogs star Bailey Smith, as well as highly-rated Saints utility Josh Battle. Both players are out of contract at season’s end and weighing up their respective footy futures.
The traditional Cats approach would be to prioritise the duo at season’s end and, in Smith’s case, sacrifice some draft capital to bring him into the club, especially as Smith could help fill the growing chasm in the Cats’ midfield.
They could compliment a group of 26-and-under Cats players that include Ollie Dempsey, Sam De Koning, Tanner Bruhn, Ollie Henry, Jack Henry, Gryan Miers, Max Holmes, Tyson Stengle, Brad Close, Jack Bowes, Zach Guthrie, Jhye Clark, Connor O’Sullivan and Toby Conway. “They’re the kind of guys that top up. Some would say there’s ample promise among that group, others – like Hawthorn legend Luke Hodge – would argue they need older stars to do “the bulk of the work” for them to thrive.
But considering the Dogs would likely only accept a first-round draft pick in exchange for losing Smith – and the introduction of a 19th team later this decade – would the on-baller really be worth such an investment from Geelong?
“They’ve got big calls to make,” Fox Footy’s Anthony Hudson said on 3AW Football on Friday night.
“With Tasmania looming, if they don’t go to the draft and they do trade to get a Bailey Smith, then you are taking a big gamble I reckon.”
Lloyd added: “They’ve got to weigh up I suppose where they finish on the ladder and decide is that kid at Pick 8 going to be better than what potentially they could bring in from elsewhere with the pick they’d have to give up. It is very much a midfielders draft coming up … I’d prefer to see them go to the draft for the future.”
Then Lloyd threw up a, previously unthinkable, point prospect Cats players might now have to consider.
“And players have to weigh up: ‘Do we want to go to Geelong? Have I missed the boat?’” he said.
Carlton cook the Cats real good | 02:40
‘ABOUT TO GET UGLY’: KEN’S DOOMSDAY LOOMS AS ‘HUGE POSITIVITY’ SURROUNDS ‘COACH-IN-WAITING’
Ken Hinkley has copped plenty of criticism and absorbed persistent pressure during his 12-year Alberton tenure, but the external discontent is arguably scratching all-time high levels.
On a day that was supposed to consist of reminiscent celebrations for Port Adelaide, it fell helplessly to a determined Brisbane outfit by 79 points on Saturday afternoon.
The Power have lost three consecutive games — by an average deficit of 46 points — as their September-contending candidacy comes into question.
“It’s about to get ugly, you suspect, at Port Adelaide,” 300-game Power great Kane Cornes told Nine’s Sunday Footy Show.
“I’ve been really defensive of Ken Hinkley because I believe he’s largely got the best out of the group that he has got, and the effort has never wavered.
“Well, now, the effort is starting to waver. It was a special day yesterday — 20 years since Port Adelaide won the premiership — they celebrated that … so you’d want to put in a good performance.
“With a midfield that (reads) Rozee, Butters and Horne-Francis, they got beaten at stoppage by 55 points. This is a team that thought they had a good midfield — they don’t.”
The Power were -25 in inside-50s, -45 in disposals, -15 in clearances, -40 in contested possessions, and had 28 fewer marks than the Lions. Butters and Rozee combined for 63 disposals but had minimal match impact.
Of the 10 most score-involved players on the ground, eight were Brisbane players. It was easily Port Adelaide’s biggest loss of the season.
Ken quizzed on boos after Lions thumping | 11:21
“That’s where I get concerned for Ken Hinkley; when your side delivers an effort like that on what should be a really special day for the footy club,” Cornes said.
After conceding a season-worst opposition score of 23.14 (152), three-time Richmond premiership forward Jack Riewoldt pointed at the club’s underperforming off-season acquisitions.
“We don’t know what we’re going to get from Port Adelaide,” Riewoldt told Fox Footy on Saturday night.
“Behind the ball they’re still finding their mojo a little bit. Clearly, they targeted that area in the trade period with (Brandon) Zerk-Thatcher and (Esava) Ratugolea, but at the moment it’s the area that’s not holding up for them.”
Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd quizzed Cornes on whether he thought Port Adelaide would terminate Hinkley’s contract with the season still in progress.
“I think he’ll know when that time (comes), he’s got a pretty good lens on where he sits (and) he’s been around for a long time,” the ex-Power midfielder and short-time Hinkley disciple responded.
“It’s probably getting to the point where he’s starting to look at those efforts and go ‘is this playing group really playing for me now, like they have done for 12 years?’
“Nathan Buckley (was) probably (in) a similar scenario at Collingwood (in 2021) — (that) is probably the one that sticks with me.
“I think there’ll be a discussion with him and the club. It was always going to be ‘if you don’t go deep into the finals, (it’s) probably time to say goodbye at the end of the year’.
“Does it come before that? It’s hard to say. And I guess (we’ll see) how the next month plays out.”
Port Adelaide’s coach was far from the most popular person at Adelaide Oval post-game on Saturday, audibly booed by his club’s supporters as he and his coaching staff exited the field.
“It’s not fun,” Hinkley later told reporters.
“It’s not what I enjoy. It’s just what the reality is of my job. If you can’t cope with it, you probably shouldn’t be in my job.
“I can cope with it. I don’t enjoy it, it’s not my favourite time — my favourite time is watching my team play well.”
Judging by that measure, it’s been a fair while since Hinkley had some ‘favourite time’.
Lions put the Power out in Adelaide | 02:16
The Power haven’t dominated an opponent since they toppled lowly North Melbourne by 59 points in Round 11, which capped a then-three-game winning streak.
Port’s season highlight — arguably its stirring win over the Cats in Geelong — feels like a lifetime ago, back in Round 9.
Cornes, who was disturbed by Port fans’ “disgraceful” choice to boo the long-time servant, also said it would be a “mistake” to immediately cement midfield assistant Josh Carr as Hinkley’s successor.
“I guess the broader question is ‘who’s the next coach?’ and we’ll get to that (point),” he said on Sunday.
“They seem to have locked themselves into Josh Carr, which I think is a mistake.
“As good as I think Carr will be, you’ve got to open the search far and wide and get the absolute best coach.
“So, start with Utopia. Can we get Chris Scott? Start there, and then work your way down. To lock yourself into a position and guarantee another person the job, to me, would be a mistake to do that.
“They’re a supporter group that celebrated SANFL premierships every second year — they don’t realise it’s not the SANFL and they’re hard to win, so after 12 years they’ve had enough and that becomes a problem for the club to handle.”
Port Adelaide football boss Chris Davies conceded the Power aren’t in an ideal position as the business end of the season nears, but he’s also unwilling to shut the door on their ‘24 prospects with nine games still remaining.
“There are parts of our game that we know we can get better (at) that will make us better in 2024, rather than having to look too far down the track and think that this group is not good enough,” Davies recently told SEN.
“Maybe we’re not, but that is not going to stop us from trying to get the maximum out of our team in 2024 that we can, and I don’t think we’ve achieved that yet.”
Should Steven May cop a staging fine? | 00:32
After Round 15, the Power sit 8-6 and in eighth position on the ladder, just half a game inside the top eight with the chasing pack bearing down.
Even if it finds a way to qualify for finals football, we know all about how Port Adelaide tends to fare in September.
Hinkley’s 41.7 winning percentage in finals matches is a far cry from his 60.6 per cent rate of victory in home-and-away games.
Albeit the 57-year-old, contracted until the end of the 2025 season, seemingly won’t need to worry about his job security in-season.
“(Hinkley) knows exactly where this goes, but he has nine weeks to try and save his coaching career,” Herald Sun journalist Jon Ralph told Fox Footy on Sunday.
“At 8-6, this is a club that will give him the time — they will not be sacking him halfway through the season. We know where this goes, as I say, if Port Adelaide misses the finals.
“Josh Carr, their coach-in-waiting, has been described in huge positivity by their chairman … (they’re) a long way off the pace, (they’ve) lost by at least four goals to all of last year’s preliminary finalists, they were given the time.
“You’d think that Josh Carr is a very good chance to be coaching this club next season.”
‘CLUBS CHASING HIM’: EMERGING STAR BOOSTING VALUE AMID RIVAL INTEREST
While North Melbourne will be disappointed not to have trumped either of Collingwood or Melbourne in its past two games, one of the primary reasons why it has been so close to victory has been the inspiring play of their sterling ball-winner.
Luke Davies-Uniacke recorded a game-high 31 disposals — nine of which came in the final quarter — at 84 per cent efficiency in Saturday night’s three-point loss to the Demons.
The 25-year-old also notched 17 contested possessions, eight clearances, seven score involvements, four inside-50s and a goal in a team-lifting effort.
The star onballer’s 28.3 disposals per game is a career-best average, while he ranks fifth in the AFL in centre clearances, seventh in inside-50s and 10th in disposals. Davies-Uniacke hasn’t gone under 21 possessions in a single game this season.
Alongside the likes of Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw and Jy Simpkin, ‘LDU’ is wreaking serious havoc in Alastair Clarkson’s engine room.
“He’s held form for a number of years now, which has been so good for North Melbourne to see his development,” Western Bulldogs great Brad Johnson told Fox Footy post-game on Saturday.
“He’s a player that was (a) 20 disposals a game (player), and once he broke through that barrier to get to 25-plus, his football has just been sensational to watch.
“His craft around clearance has been getting better and better, his breakaway from stoppage is now at an elite level, so therefore his game has just grown into one of the most consistent players in the competition.
“What he’s doing for North Melbourne and trying to carry the team on his shoulders is just absolutely huge.”
Dees hold off fierce Roos comeback | 02:42
Triple premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt said Davies-Uniacke has “a sneaky bit of Patrick Dangerfield” about him.
“That exit from stoppage, which I look at that and (think) if you can come out of a contest and draw two players, you’re automatically gaining an advantage.
“And, if you can break a tackle as well, which he’s shown that he can do for a long time now … those players are so valuable.”
Former livewire Carlton and Adelaide forward Eddie Betts added: “There’ll be clubs chasing him at the moment.”
Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd said on Nine’s Sunday Footy Show: “I think Luke Davies-Uniacke is playing the best footy I’ve ever seen him play.”
Despite his contracted status, rival clubs are circling Davies-Uniacke this year as he pushes his contract talks aside for the time being.
While the burgeoning onballer is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of next season, St Kilda, Essendon and Adelaide are reportedly among the sides courting his services in 2024.
And, while they were gallant in narrow defeats to the Pies and Dees, the Kangaroos are 1-13 entering Round 16.
In 98 games for North Melbourne, Davies-Uniacke has been a part of just 19 wins (19.9 per cent).
The arrow appears to be pointing up for the Roos, but there remains an outside chance Davies-Uniacke is tempted away — though Brady Rawlings and Co. are surely prepared to fork out considerable coin to keep the Rye product around long-term.
Clarko ‘pleased’ despite tight loss | 08:40
“To be honest, I haven’t really thought about contracts as of yet. I’m not really thinking about it too much,” Davies-Uniacke recently told 3AW.
“I’m just putting all my energy into the playing group and the club. I want to see this club get better and I want us to start winning. We only just got a taste for it on Saturday, that’s where my headspace is at.
“No doubt that my manager and the club can be talking next year, I’ve got no doubt they’ll get something done.
“I’m not really in the headspace or really thinking about contracts because I wouldn’t be doing justice to my teammates. So I’m putting all my energy and focus into the team right now.
“I’m loving playing for North and rocking up every day to Arden Street.”
DOES THE AFL FINALS SERIES NEED TO BE MORE EVEN?
Earlier last week, Gold Coast chief executive Mark Evans provided the AFL with one of the more left-field inquiries from a club in recent memory.
Reported earlier in the week by Herald Sun journalist and Fox Footy’s own Jon Ralph, the Suns’ CEO requested that due to the year-round advantage Victorian clubs have, all clubs from the state should play their first week of their home finals at an away venue.
Evans’ proposition was also loaded with the question of: If the AFL aren’t prepared to force Victorian clubs into playing away finals at the beginning of a finals series, why do they consider the Grand Final at the MCG a level playing field?
“It’s an incredible advantage for a Victorian team to play a non-Victorian team on the biggest day of the year (Grand Final),” Evans told Ralph.
“So, would we be prepared to flip the advantage the other way in week one of the finals when the Victorian team has earned the right to have a home final?”
Bombers prevail to claim top four spot | 02:21
Speaking on ABC Sport the day after their 63-point smashing of Geelong, Blues coach Michael Voss made his thoughts on the matter short, sharp and simple. .
“I’ve got to be careful here, because being a person who was interstate for all his playing career – and I’ll state this as a Carlton person – if you’re good enough, you’ll win a Grand Final, it doesn’t matter where it’s played,” Voss said.
“If we’re good enough, we’ll win – if we’re not, we won’t and that’s just the way that the competition pans out.”
With the AFL Grand Final locked in to the MCG until the end of 2059, a move away from the sporting colosseum won’t be coming anytime soon – and perhaps leaving the AFL with slightly more to think about with the submission than first realised.
Sydney (2012 over Hawthorn) and West Coast (2018 over Collingwood) are the only two clubs in the last 20 years to beat a Victorian side on the MCG – with eight others losing in the aforementioned timeframe.