On Thursday, Americans everywhere will gather to celebrate Independence Day. Fireworks will be watched. Hot dogs and hamburgers will be grilled. Fun will be had.
Soon enough, NFL fans will have something else to celebrate. As we move further into July, training camps will open. Before you know it, the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans will be kicking off the NFL preseason with the Hall of Fame Game. Then the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens will kick things off for real on September 5.
At each step along the way, questions will be answered for all 32 teams, from the lowly Carolina Panthers to the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Position battles will be sorted out. Young players will shine. Veterans will disappoint. Many will be answers we expect. Others not so much.
But some questions—the really big questions—won’t be answered until fall has turned to winter. Which teams will exceed expectations? Which will fail to meet them. Who will advance first into the playoffs and then all the way to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX?
It’s still awfully early to predict answers for those biggest of questions. But we’ve never let that stop us before.
Now if you’d kindly step back, it’s time to shake the Magic 8-Ball.
When the Kansas City Chiefs downed the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, they became the ninth team to win back-to-back championships. Now, the Chiefs will try to accomplish something that all eight squads that preceded them failed to pull off. To make history.
To three-peat.
The key to Kansas City’s dynasty (at this point that’s what they are) is of course the NFL’s best quarterback. And while appearing on the Impaulsive with Logan Paul podcast, Patrick Mahomes didn’t hold back with his prediction for the season to come.
“Next year in New Orleans, we’re gonna do it again,” Mahomes said. “I’m putting it on the table. We’re gonna do it again. I’m telling you now.”
The Chiefs certainly appear to have all the ingredients necessary for a deep playoff run. Kansas City added a pair of wide receivers in rookie Xavier Worthy and veteran Marquise Brown. While Kansas City’s offense gets most of the run, the Chiefs were quietly second in the league in both total defense and scoring defense in 2023.
Yet not only did all eight back-to-back champions before the Chiefs fail to win a third consecutive Super Bowl, but not one even made it to the game. Three teams lost in the following season’s conference title game, two lost in the Divisional Round and three missed the playoffs altogether.
It’s a situation where just about everything has to go right—again. One misstep or significant injury can be all it takes to derail the dream. And the Chiefs are already dealing with some adversity thanks to wide receiver Rashee Rice’s legal problems.
The Chiefs are an excellent team. But the AFC is loaded with excellent teams—and there’s a reason that almost 60 Super Bowls in, no one has captured three straight.
Answer: No
The Pittsburgh Steelers won 10 games and made the playoffs last year, but that success didn’t stop the team from blowing up the quarterback room. The Steelers signed veteran Russell Wilson shortly after his release by the Denver Broncos and traded for ex-Bears signal-caller Justin Fields.
Wilson is coming off a disastrous two-year stint in Denver—after going 11-19 as the Broncos starter, Denver ate the largest dead-cap hit in NFL history to be rid of him. But from all indications, the starting job in Pittsburgh is Wilson’s to lose. And Adam Rank of NFL.com believes that coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense could be an excellent fit for what Wilson does best:
“Obviously, things didn’t work out for him with the Broncos, even after a better 2023, but pairing him with Arthur Smith feels right. As offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2020, Smith used play action on a league-high 34.4 percent of his offensive plays. And that’s where Russell thrives; he’s recorded a 109.7 passer rating on such plays in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). If you regularly put him in that situation, the 35-year-old might just revive his career. Smith also used the run a lot in recent seasons, with Atlanta logging 31.8 carries per game in 2022-23, good for second in the NFL in that span, and if he leans on the ground again in Pittsburgh, that will take some pressure off the veteran passer. All of this said, there should be reason for optimism.”
The wide receiver position is admittedly a question mark in the Steel City behind George Pickens, but if rookie Roman Wilson steps up and Russell Wilson takes care of the ball as well as he did last season (26 touchdown passes, eight interceptions), the Steelers could at least be a capable offense. Throw in a defense led by edge-rusher T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick that allowed the sixth-fewest points per game in 2023, and you have the makings of a playoff team.
How much noise the Steelers make there will rely largely on Wilson.
Answer: Yes
It’s a statement that Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones may well wish he hadn’t made. All the way back in January, Jones told reporters after another postseason collapse that the Cowboys were “all-in” for 2024. That this year would be different.
“I thought we made a pretty good move four years ago when we hired Mike McCarthy, and he’s had some great in-season success,” Jones said. “Now he’s come up short three times and advanced us in the playoff. But I like that fact that’s he’s hanging around the rim, and I like what the team has done to hang around the rim. So, I think, what the answer that I would have is, that I’m aware that we’re hanging around the rim. We’re not getting the ball in but when you hang around the rim—let’s don’t discount hanging around the rim—where we are right now with the players we’ve got, and I’m thinking about it from the whole look.”
The puzzling part is what came after that—nothing. Dallas was a complete non-player in free agency, outside replacing running back Tony Pollard with a familiar face in Ezekiel Elliott. That was partly because of the massive cap number quarterback Dak Prescott carries into the final year of his contract.
Granted, the Cowboys have won 12 games in each of the past three seasons. But it’s impossible to look at this year’s roster and call this Dallas team better than those—or even as good. And last year’s NFC East title had as much to do with the late-season collapse by the Eagles than the Cowboys themselves.
The Cowboys are a good team. In an NFC that’s not nearly as strong as the AFC, they will likely make the postseason tournament. But they aren’t getting past the San Francisco 49ers. Or the Detroit Lions. Or the Philadelphia Eagles.
All this version of “all-in” is going to get Jones and the Cowboys is more of the same. Another early playoff exit. And a very interesting offseason in 2025.
Answer: No
The Cincinnati Bengals entered the 2023 season as a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the AFC. But Burrow entered the season banged up and exited it after 10 games with a hand injury—and not only did Cincinnati not make a deep postseason run, but it was the only team in the AFC North that missed the playoffs.
The Bengals will have their star quarterback healthy in 2024. But there are changes—especially on the offensive side of the ball. Veteran slot receiver Tyler Boyd is gone. So is tackle Jonah Williams, replaced by a combination of veteran Trent Brown and rookie first-rounder Amarius Mims. Long-time running back Joe Mixon was traded to Houston, although Burrow told reporters he believes second-year pro Chase Brown and free-agent acquisition Zack Moss can more than pick up that slack.
“I feel really good about our backs,” Burrow said. “Chase (Brown) looks great. He’s an explosive guy that can take it to the house at any time. He’s looked great catching the ball out of the backfield. He worked really hard at that and it’s paying off and then Zack (Moss) coming in, he’s going to do a great job for us this year. He’s a guy that’s very even-keeled. He’s going to do his job. He’s going to run really hard. So, I’m excited to see what those two guys can bring.”
In Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals have an excellent one-two punch at wideout. As has so often been the case in recent years, much of Cincinnati’s offensive success in 2024 will depend largely on whether the seemingly ever-changing offensive line holds up.
But Cincinnati made a Super Bowl with a bad offensive line and an AFC Championship Game with one that wasn’t much better.
So long as Burrow is under center, the Bengals are a dangerous team.
Answer: Yes
There’s been no shortage of drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers since his arrival in New York, with the latest being his unexcused absence from mandatory minicamp while on a trip to Egypt. What there hasn’t been much of is actual football—just one series last year before tearing his Achilles.
Now, Rodgers is reportedly healthy. And the Jets have done just about everything in their power to build a winner around him. Veteran wideout Mike Williams was brought in in free agency to complement Garrett Wilson. The offensive line was overhauled with the additions of veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. Edge-rusher Haason Reddick was acquired to add more pop to a defense that was already replete with talent at all three levels.
On paper, the Jets look good. Really good.
Meanwhile, the four-time defending AFC East champion Buffalo Bills didn’t have as exciting an offseason. The team’s top two wide receivers from a season ago (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis) are both gone. So are long-time starting safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. And veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White.
Yes, the Bills procured replacements in players like wideout Curtis Samuel and safety Mike Edwards. But it’s impossible to say this Bills roster is better (again, on paper) than last year’s team.
If you’re wondering if a “but” is coming, you’re a quick one.
But the Bills have become old hats at success. They have weathered adversity in the past. Buffalo has won double-digit games each of the past five years. And while the Bills may not look quite as good on paper, they remain a talented team on both sides of the ball.
Meanwhile, if the Jets didn’t have bad luck, they wouldn’t have any—seemingly every year some catastrophe befalls a club that hasn’t made the playoffs in well over a decade. And while Rodgers is a four-time MVP, he’s also a 40-year-old coming off a major injury whose last full season in Green Bay wasn’t especially impressive.
Does a healthy Rodgers make the Jets better? Yes. A playoff contender? Yes.
But Josh Allen and the Bills are still the team to beat in the AFC East.
Who’s up for five in a row?
Answer: No
The “Super Bowl Hangover” is something of an annual talking point in the NFL—especially where teams who lost the biggest game in football are concerned.
That’s partly because just three teams have rebounded from a loss in the Super Bowl to win it the following season—and two of those came early in Super Bowl history. After losing Super Bowl V to the Colts, the Dallas Cowboys downed the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl VI. The Dolphins repeated the feat the following year, going undefeated on the way to victory in Super Bowl VII. But after that, it would be more than 40 years before the New England Patriots avenged a loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII with a victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII.
This year, it falls to the San Francisco 49ers to avoid the hangover. Star linebacker Fred Warner acknowledged on the Candlestick Chronicles podcast that getting back to the Super Bowl won’t be easy. But he said the Niners are determined to learn from the mistakes that cost them in last season’s overtime loss to the Chiefs.
“You’ve gotta get right back on the horse and get back to work and make sure that you are better this time around than you were last time,” he said. “Because if we all just show up and we’re like: ‘We’re gonna be the exact same team. We’re gonna get back. We’ll figure out a way to pull it off next time.’ That’s just not how it works. You’ve gotta be better than before, and also learn from those mistakes, which we will.”
San Fran has some added pressure in 2024—with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk in the last year of his contract and quarterback Brock Purdy eligible for an extension in 2025, keeping the band together as constructed isn’t going to be easy.
But that band consists of arguably the most talented and balanced roster in the entire NFL. Provided that the 49ers aren’t ravaged by injuries a la the 2020 iteration after losing Super Bowl LIV, San Francisco will win the NFC West again and be a real threat to represent the conference in New Orleans.
Answer: Yes
Not that long ago, had you mentioned the Detroit Lions and the Super Bowl in the same sentence, at best you’d have gotten side-eyed. At worst you would have been laughed at.
Well, no one is laughing now—not after the Lions gave the San Francisco 49ers all they could handle in last year’s NFC Championship Game. And as young edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson told Brad Galli of WXYZ-TV in Detroit, this season Detroit is looking to play in one more game than last.
“I feel like it’s the year,” Hutchinson said. “With every fiber of my body, I feel like it’s the year. Honestly, from this year on, every year is the year. With the guys that we have, I hope that we’re going to sustain the success for a long time.”
He may well be on to something. Jared Goff has gone from a player the Rams were willing to offer two first-round picks to be rid of to a $53 million-a-year quarterback after leading the NFC with 4,575 passing yards last season.
The team is loaded with offensive firepower, whether it’s wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta through the air or running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the ground. Detroit’s offensive line may be the best in the NFL. Hutchinson keys an improving Detroit defense that made a major addition in the offseason in cornerback Carlton Davis.
Now, there are no guarantees in the NFL. The Lions will have to deal with something in 2024 they have not in a long time—expectations. They are no longer the hunters. They are the hunted. Teams will circle the Lions on the schedule.
But this analyst already predicted that the Lions will win Super Bowl LIX.
Because this team really is that good.
Answer: Yes
When it comes to hype, there isn’t a team in this column headed into the 2024 campaign with more than the Houston Texans.
It’s not just last year’s surprising run to an AFC South championship. Or the team’s blowout win over the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card Round. Or even quarterback C.J. Stroud, who topped 4,100 passing yards during an excellent first season that culminated in Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Or edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr., who brought home the same award on the defensive side of the ball.
No, the Texans also added as much veteran talent as any team in the NFL. Star receiver Stefon Diggs joins a pass-catching corps that already included 2023 breakouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Running back Joe Mixon was acquired to boost the ground game. The defense added an ascending young linebacker in Azeez Al-Shaair and one of the NFL’s elite pass-rushers in Danielle Hunter.
However, head coach DeMeco Ryans told Rhett Lewis of the NFL Network that last year’s success guarantees nothing in 2024.
“People talk about how exciting of a year it was,” Ryans said, “but I throw up a stat to our guys this offseason, like, ‘Look, I know we won some games, but guys, look, we had 10 games within one score, and these games were down to the wire and we had to find a way at the end.’ That doesn’t change. That’s the NFL. It’s about being smart, being confident in those crucial situations, like the last two minutes of a game. Can you go perform? Can you be clear-minded and go execute the details of your job to the highest level? That’s what it’ll come down to.”
Ryans is spot-on—the Texans remain a young team in many respects. There are questions on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. And unfortunately, Houston plays in the AFC—a conference loaded with star quarterbacks and excellent teams.
Houston is an improving team with a bright future, largely because of its second-year signal-caller. Houston is the favorite in the AFC South.
But Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen—the list goes on and on. It’s just too many elite quarterbacks to get past.
At least this year.
Answer: No