Anthony Albanese is looking to call an early election in the hope of securing himself a second term before the economy gets worse and to avoid the risk of another interest rate rise in September.
The date he is looking at is Saturday, August 31.
While there was strong speculation at Canberra’s Midwinter Ball this week that the PM might go to an election in mid-September, that would risk an interest rate rise in the middle of the campaign.
Both Scott Morrison in 2022 and John Howard in 2007 had to endure a rate rise while on the campaign trail. Both lost their re-election bids.
After a dozen rate rises in this Labor government’s first term already, another one on the campaign trail would be a devastating blow Albo will want to avoid at all costs.
The writs for an election need to be issued 33 days before polling day, which means the PM is looking at the last weekend this month – July 27/28 – to visit his newly appointed Governor General Sam Moystn and dissolve the parliament.
MPs and Senators have already headed home for the winter recess, with Parliament not due to return until mid August. That won’t happen if the PM pulls the trigger on an election for August 31. It may not even happen if speculation about a September election turns out to be accurate.
Some within Labor are concerned about the potential of a rate rise in August, a reason not to go early.
Anthony Albanese is mulling an early election – and the date he is looking to take Australians to the polls is August 31
But those close to the PM are far more concerned about a rise in September. They believe the Reserve Bank would be less likely to lift rates during a campaign in August as opposed to in September, when the economic argument for rate rises looks like being stronger.
New inflation numbers are due to be publicly released at the very beginning of August, but the Australian Bureau of Statistics gets the figures earlier than that, allowing the PM and Treasurer to mull over them before committing to pulling the election trigger.
If the numbers are significantly worse than expected – elevating the chances of a rate rise in August, even in the middle of a campaign – the PM may choose to delay his plans for an early election.
First term governments often go to the polls early. Malcolm Fraser did it in 1977, and so did Bob Hawke in 1984. John Howard went to an early election in 1998.
The federal Labor government isn’t due to face re-election until May next year, but that would interfere with the timing of the Budget.
It also risks the country plunging into recession and homeowners being slapped with rate rises before that time, neither of which would help Labor’s chances of retaining its majority.
The PM has privately told those close to him that while he expects to win the next election, he also believes that he is unlikely to retain Labor’s parliamentary majority. This will force him to negotiate with the crossbench to form minority government.
Labor currently holds 78 seats in the 151 member Lower House compared to 57 for the Coalition. The remainder are made up of Teals, Greens and Independents. The size of the House of Representatives will shrink to 150 seats at the next election, meaning that 76 seats are required to form majority government.
The PM has privately told those close to him that while he expects to win the next election, he also believes that he is unlikely to retain Labor’s parliamentary majority. Above, in conversation with Treasurer Jim Chalmers
While talk of an early election has largely focused on one being called later this year – after the footy finals – or early next year, both options would clash with other election campaigns.
Queenslanders go to the polls in late October, the US Presidential election is in November and the Western Australian state election is in March next year.
If Albanese sticks to his plan to face voters on August 31 he’ll avoid the federal election campaign clashing with any of these other campaigns.
But it would mean calling the election in just three weeks’ time.
The Prime Minister cancelled plans to head overseas later this month for the NATO conference, and he has adjusted the approvals processes for ministers such that all new spending must come through his office, not just through the expenditure committee of cabinet.
This carries all the hallmarks of early election planning.
However, Victorian Labor is yet to announce all of its candidates for the federal election, including in the ultra marginal Liberal held seat of Deakin. The redistribution has dramatically improved Labor’s chances of winning the seat to help offset losses elsewhere such as in WA.
Senior federal Labor figures in Queensland also are concerned about holding an election, before their state election, worried that doing so could see the stink of state Labor impact Labor’s federal vote.
But this is a risk Albo is prepared to take, unless the upcoming inflation figures are too bad and force him to shift to Plan B.
Another bonus of going early for Albo: it would expose the lack of detail surrounding Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy. Above, with his wife Kirilly at the Midwinter Ball last week
Going to the polls early would take advantage of the Stage Three income tax cuts, which took effect on July 1, and come off the back of the $40million taxpayer funded advertising campaign currently underway selling their value to voters.
It is understood that the PM also believes an early election would expose Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s lack of detail surrounding his nuclear policy. The costings and modeling are yet to be released.
With the opinion polls having tightened senior Labor strategists are concerned that the longer time goes on before an election campaign, the greater the potential for first-term failures to be exposed.
Another risk is that ill-discipline seeps into the ranks, eroding the chances of voters doing what they have done since 1931 – giving a first-term government a second term.
While August 31 remains the target date for an early election, the fallout from first term WA senator Fatima Payman crossing the floor on Palestine and defecting from the Labor Party has been an unwanted distraction.
It happened right when the PM had hoped all the attention would be focused on cost-of-living relief being rolled out to help improve the government’s standing with voters.
Albo’s forward planning for an early election helps explain why he is reacting so badly to Senator Payman’s conscience vote – initially trying to play it down before overreacting and boxing her into leaving the party.
He will be watching closely in the coming weeks in the hope that interest in her saga wanes and voters will be more focused on the financial help the government has provided them with.