Not too long ago, running backs such as former Seattle Seahawks star Shaun Alexander stood out as faces of the NFL. For decades, in fact, ball carriers regularly were selected with top 10 picks in the draft and arrived as focal points for their respective offenses, regularly toting the rock 300-plus times a season.
But in conjunction with the rise of the modern passing game, backs have become a dime a dozen with most teams choosing to employ a by-committee approach rather than running a workhorse into the ground and preferring players on cheap rookie deals. As for second contracts, while some runners are lucky enough to earn a second deal, their contracts pale in comparison to every other position from a compensation standpoint, further evidenced by the lowest franchise tag value ($11.951 million) except for specialists.
Does statistical data back up this latest trend to avoid investing big bucks in running backs after their rookie contract? And do backs with versatility as receivers and pass protectors warrant significantly bigger paychecks?
In an effort to answer both questions, I’ve invented the “Bang For Buck RB Index,” which accounts for production as well as the player’s yearly annual salary. Unlike the quarterback model, due to the lower salaries across the board, players on rookie contracts such as Seahawks starter Ken Walker III are eligible for this assessment if they recorded at least 100 carries and/or 50 receptions over the past two seasons.
The Bang For Buck RB Index comprises of nine different statistical metrics, including traditional data such as rushing yardage, touchdowns, receptions, receiving yardage, and missed tackles forced. The formula also prioritizes several recently-developed advanced metrics, including success rate, percentage of runs against a loaded box, and yards after contact per carry for running backs who meet the carries/receptions thresholds and have an annual salary (APY) north of $2 million per year.
Digging into each of those nine statistics for 30 qualified players who meet those criteria, the running back who ranks first in each category receives 150 points. The remainder of the rankings are scored on intervals of five points, with the final player receiving only five points. In the case of a tie, players with the same numbers receive the same grade.
Looking back at the previous two seasons, which running backs offer the most “Bang for Buck” in the NFL? And where does Walker fit in terms of value compared to his peers? Here’s a deep dive into all nine statistics:
Total yardage only paints part of the picture, but the same time, eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark remains a milestone every back pushes for season to season for a reason. Backs who can stay healthy and consistently produce 1,000 yards or more still offer great value to their team, especially when they are able to do so with a good percentage of explosive runs mixed in.
A throwback runner with rare size at 245 pounds, Derrick Henry has produced a Hall of Fame-worthy career in eight NFL seasons and hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, leading all backs with 2,705 rushing yards since 2022. Behind him, Christian McCaffrey has been a catalyst for the 49ers dominance in the NFC West and eclipsed 2,500 rushing yards over the past two seasons, while Josh Jacobs, Saquan Barkley, and Travis Etienne all averaged more than 1,000 rushing yards per season. After failing to replicate his 1,000-yard production from his rookie year, Walker finished eighth with 1,955 total yards.
Nothing carries the weight of putting points on the scoreboard, and in the case of running backs, finding pay dirt regularly plays a key role in negotiating a rare second contract at the position. Case in point? The three players with annual salaries north of $12 million per year at the position all scored at least 16 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons.
One of the toughest runners to bring down in short yardage situations in NFL history, it shouldn’t be a surprise Henry has outpaced every other back with 25 rushing touchdowns since 2022. A touchdown scoring machine in his own right, McCaffrey finished just behind him with 22 touchdowns and Dolphins veteran Raheem Mostert made the most of his chances with 21 touchdowns in that span. Rounding out the top five, four players scored 18 rushing touchdowns the past two years, including former Chargers back Austin Ekeler and Jacobs. Walker just missed the top five with 17 touchdowns, the most by any player currently on a rookie contract.
In today’s NFL, running backs have to be able to catch the football to see the field, and the best in the business in the modern game create problems for the defense both in the run and pass game. The ability to flex running backs out into the slot or outside produces major matchup issues, especially for defenses in man coverage where linebackers end up trying to cover them out in space, often shrinking the playbook as a result.
One of the few backs in the NFL who could move to receiver full time and still be a superstar, McCaffrey has revolutionized the game with his pass catching ability, hauling in 152 passes over the past two seasons. Interestingly, Ekeler had more receptions in that span with 158, while Saints standout Alvin Kamara came in a distant third with 132 catches. Only one other back – former Bengals starter Joe Mixon – produced more than 100 catches over the past two years, though Barkley just missed due to injuries with 98 receptions. Far from a volume target, Walker ranked 20th with 56 catches for Seattle.
As receptions from running backs continue to become more valuable, an increased number of targets has led to more touchdowns in the passing game from the position. Whether catching swing passes or Texas routes out of the backfield or motioning into the slot to run a wheel route against an overmatched linebacker or safety, the best coordinators have kept finding creative ways to implement their backs as red zone weapons.
In a class all by himself, McCaffrey tallied 12 receiving touchdowns over the past two years, double the output of any other running back in that span. Ekeler and former Packers starter Aaron Jones each scored half a dozen touchdowns through the air, while Jets star Breece Hall, Mixon, and Mostert all scored five times apiece. Though Walker was in the middle of the pack in receptions, he only has scored one touchdown as a receiver thus far.
At a position where success mostly derives from the blocking up front, the best running backs often face boxes with at least seven defenders near the line of scrimmage to help slow them down. Knowing the percentage of loaded boxes a back faces during the course of a season provides much-needed context for success on the ground – or lack thereof – and it takes special talent for ball carriers to continue to pick up solid yardage against a high volume of stacked boxes.
As a sign of respect from opponents, as well as another illustration of his immense talent, Henry ran the ball against boxes with eight or more defenders on a league-high 36.74 percent of his attempts over the past two years. Interestingly, despite having a better supporting cast around him in San Francisco, McCaffrey came in second at 35.44%. Capping off the top five backs who faced loaded boxes the most frequently, Baltimore’s Gus Edwards, New Orleans’ Jamaal Wiliams, and Cleveland’s Nick Chubb all surpassed 28.8 percent. Walker sat in the middle of the pack at 20.56 percent.
A more recent addition for evaluating running back performance, per Pro Football Reference, success rate is calculated by adding runs that pick up at least 40 percent of needed yardage on first down, runs that pick up at least 60 percent of needed yardage on second down, and runs that net a first down on third or fourth down divided by the number of rush attempts. Players who score well in this category tend to move the chains with a high frequency and aren’t held to minimal gains on early downs as often, keeping their team’s offense on schedule.
Though injuries limited him last season, Jones posted the highest success rate over the past two years at 57.7 percent, making the most of his opportunities while rushing for 88 first downs. Not far behind him, Edwards’ ability to push the pile in short yardage situations played a key role in posting a 55.8 percent success rate, while Mostert came in third at 55.1 percent. The Packers had two of the most efficient runners in the sport with AJ Dillon ranking fourth in success rate and Jacobs rounded out the list at 52.7 percent. Hurt by an inconsistent offensive line and his own issues running decisively at times, Walker finished 28th at 43.2 percent.
While quality blocking will always be a must for a running back, the best ball carriers have an innate ability to manufacture yardage themselves, starting with making defenders miss in space or slipping through arm tackles. There’s some subjectivity to the practice, but Pro Football Focus offers the missed tackles forced metric in an attempt to highlight backs who do the best job leaving defenders grasping for air on run plays.
Once again coming out on top, Henry bullies defenders with his raw power and produced a whopping 126 missed tackles forced over the previous two seasons with the Titans. Getting the job done more with elusiveness and quickness, Etienne came in second with 126 missed tackles forced, while Jacobs and Steelers standout Najee Harris came in third and fourth. Demonstrating a knack for creating something out of nothing behind a suspect line, Walker finished fifth in that span forcing 104 missed tackles for the Seahawks.
In another statistic that credits backs for churning out their own yardage independent of the offensive line, PFF also charts yards after contact. This accounts for any run where a ball carrier breaks through a tackle attempt and charts yardage gained after initial contact. Players who rank high in this category consistently find ways to drive the pile forward for extra yardage, providing an extra boost to their team’s rushing attack.
Though an ACL tear cost him part of his rookie season, Hall has done a fantastic job of racking up yardage on his own in two seasons with the Jets behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, averaging 3.78 yards per carry after contact. When healthy, Chubb has remained a wrecking ball who defenders often make business decisions with, averaging 3.76 yards per carry after contact. Finishing the top five, Henry, Mostert, and Arizona’s James Conner all produced at least 3.37 yards per carry after contact. Thanks to a regression in this category last season, Walker finished 14 averaging 3.04 yards after contact on average.
Unlike the other categories that comprise the “Bang For Buck” RB Index, there isn’t a universal stat available for assessing pass protection performance from running backs. But being able to step up and thwart a blitzing linebacker or cut block an edge rusher is critical for backs in passing situations, and due to the importance of this skill, PFF’s subjective pass blocking grades will have to suffice to account for it in this evaluation.
As he did at the college level at Penn State, Barkley has consistently shined in pass protection, earning the highest average grade (76.0) among the 30 backs in this data set. Adding to his greatness, albeit with fewer opportunities, Henry holds his own protecting the quarterback and averaged a strong 73.0 grade the past two years. Former Cowboys running back Tony Pollard, Conner, and Dillon closed out the top five, while Walker has struggled mightily when asked to protect with a dreadful 36.4 average grade.
Statistically, Henry and McCaffrey dominated this study finishing in the top three in nearly every category, which would seem to justify their larger salaries. McCaffrey just received an extension from the 49ers worth $19 million annually, while Henry latched on with the Ravens for $8 million per year after the Titans opted not to re-sign him.
But for those who have argued running backs don’t deserve massive contracts, the data doesn’t lie. Despite their success, Henry and McCaffrey rank 16th and 28th in Bang For Buck rating. Ultimately, though they have the best statistics overall, a strong argument can be made that the gap between them and other players on this list isn’t enough to justify paying them their current price point. If they were that much better than their peers, as was the case at quarterback in some instances, the larger salary wouldn’t have been as significant.
To further illustrate this unfortunate truth, Walker scored poorly compared to his peers in numerous categories, including being near the bottom in success rate and pass blocking proficiency. But coupling his rookie contract barely being worth $2 million per year and his excellent rushing yardage, touchdown, and missed tackles forced numbers, he finished with the third best Bang For Buck rating at 3.3169. In the top five, four of those players are on rookie contracts as former first or second-round picks.
At the end of the day, assuming he doesn’t hit a wall in his ninth season, Henry’s new deal in Baltimore should be a solid investment. But for teams debating whether or not to open up the checkbook to re-sign a veteran back, evidence suggests few, if any, will warrant a massive raise comparing their performance to incoming rookies and cheaper players such as Walker and teammate Zach Charbonnet currently on rookie deals.