Sunday, December 22, 2024

Basketball Offseason: Looking at the ‘24-’25 Wings

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This is the third in a series looking at expectations for the team next season.

  • Looking at the ‘24-’25 Guards
  • What to Expect from the Freshman Class this Season
  • Looking at the ‘24-25 Wings
  • Looking at the ‘24-25 Bigs

This article focuses on our five wings.

Potential Rotation v2 (The ‘Marcus Hill shines’ version)

Pos Starter First Sub Bench Bench
Pos Starter First Sub Bench Bench
1 Michael O’Connell Marcus Hill Breon Pass Trey Parker
2 Marcus Hill Jayden Taylor Mike James Trey Parker
3 Mike James Dennis Parker Jr Paul McNeil
4 Dontrez Styles Ben Middlebrooks MJ Rice
5 Brandon Huntley-Hatfield Ben Middlebrooks Ernest Ross

I’ve grouped the team into guards – those expected to primarily play the 1 and/or 2 positions, wings – those expected to primarily play the 3 and/or 4 positions, and the bigs. There are obviously blurred lines across these groupings, but it’s a way to start the conversation.

Looking at the Wings

Player Experience GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Player Experience GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
Mike James Louisville 32 33.3 39.6 34 81.8 5 1.5 0.2 0.6 2.5 1.8 12.6
Dennis Parker Jr. NC State 29 15.5 44.3 30.8 53.8 3.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 4.7
Dontrez Styles Georgetown 32 33.5 43 36.8 77.6 5.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 2.6 1.5 12.8
MJ Rice NC State 9 8.8 48.4 23.1 44.4 1.9 0.1 0 0.2 0.8 0.7 4.1
Paul McNeil High School 30 54.4 39.7 84.6 9.5 4.9 1.2 2.6 31.7

Note: Limited availbility of high school statistics for Paul McNeil. EXP – experience, where he played last season, and the source of the stats.

Mike (MJ) James (yes, he goes by MJ – but will be Mike this season) (coincidentally, Marcus Hill, Jr also goes by MJ, and will also be called Mike this season) (check that, he will go by Marcus) – I believe James will start at the 3. Mike tore the Achilles tendon on his left leg in preseason practice before his freshman year at Louisville and redshirted. So, while he’s only played two seasons, this will be his fourth season in college ball. Some players benefit from watching and learning from the bench, it must have helped him because he started every game the next two seasons.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how he plays this season. He’s coming from a terrible Louisville team that won only 12 total games during the two seasons he actually played there (5 ACC, zero post season). He’s a guy that is really going to benefit from coming into a ‘guard centric’ system that will help him develop and reach his potential – and he has two seasons of eligibility to get there. Coach Keatts thinks his ball handling skills were under-utilized last season, so while I expect that he fits best at the wing this season, don’t be surprised if he plays some at the 2 and possibly lives there his senior season – if he lives up to Coach Keatts’ expectations.

Offensively, Mike can score inside and outside. He is a solid 3PT shooter, he’s shot 34.8% on 204 attempts for his career, shooting about 34% last season (33.96% 36/106) averaging 3.2 attempts per game. He hit 5 in back-to-back ACC games last season. Like Marcus Hill, he is very good at taking the ball to the basket, fighting through contact, and scoring or getting fouled. He’s a career 42.1% from the floor and 80.4% from the free throw line, 81.8% last season – which ranked 10th in the ACC. Last season he was the Cardinal’s go to guy when they needed a basket. He has all the tools necessary to be ours next season.

Defensively, he’s tall, long and quick, great attributes for a wing. He’ll be replacing an outstanding defender, Casey Morsell, in the lineup and I think he will do it well.

Career Highs: Points 26, assists 5, rebounds 10, steals 2

Dennis Parker Jr – I believe DPJ will backup James at the 3. Dennis started 12 games as a Wolfpack freshman and averaged 15 minutes a game. Unfortunately, he was ill late in the season and was unable to play in the post season. I expect to see him add some muscle this offseason which should translate to better rebounding, and hopefully he’ll work with Coach Nelson to boost his 3PT%, and especially that weak FT%. We saw flashes of brilliance during his freshman season, he defends really well, he scored double digits 5 times, had 11 games with 4 or more rebounds, had one double-double, and had 4 steals in a game. Let’s hope the old adage about the big improvement from freshman to sophomore applies to DPJ.

Career Hights: Points 18, assists 2, rebounds 10, steals 4

Dontrez (Trez) Styles – I believe Trez will start at the 4 allowing Coach Keatts to play the four out offense he likes, very much in the mold of Pack favorites Dorn, Hellems, and Bryce. Styles comes from one season at Georgetown, coincidentally, a team as bad as Louisville last season (9 wins, 2 BE, zero post season). Before that he was a Tar Heel, but he has amended his nefarious ways. He never averaged more than 6 minutes a game in Chapel Hill, but when he got the chance with the Hoyas, he was their second leading scorer, second leading rebounder, and led the team in blocked shots.

Offensively, Styles is just what you want in this role, he’s big and athletic. He shoots 36.8% from 3PT (4.2 attempts per game) – hit 3 8 times and 4 once last season, has a great mid-range jumper, and is quick and powerful enough to finish at the basket – although, last season he tended to lean more on his jumper than powering to the basket. He’s a very good rebounder, and rebounds well at the offensive end as well. He had 71 offensive rebounds last season. For comparison, that would make him third on last season’s Pack behind Middlebrooks’ 82 and just behind Diarra’s 72.

Defensively, he has the quickness to guard the ball on switches, and the size to hold his own with about anybody not named DJ Burns near the basket. He also is a decent shot blocker, he had 7 games last season with two blocked shots.

Admittedly, comparing players on different teams / systems is inconclusive and just an indicator, but looking at their stats, it’s pretty obvious that Diarra was a much better rebounder while Trez was better offensively. Styles scored 20+ points 5 times (Mo zero), had 3 double doubles (Mo had 7), and he took 133 3PT attempts (Mo took 68), about the same as Casey Morsell (137). He also shot 77.6 FT% on 107 attempts (Mo 73), a little less than Horne (113). And he averaged 5.8 RPG, which would have been second on our team last season. While I’m sure we all would have preferred to see Mo getting better and better for one more season, I think we’re going to like Trez and he’s going to fit in very well. This is going to be his “Hey NBA, watch this” season, and I expect a good one.

Career Hights: Points 26, assists 4, rebounds 13, steals 2

MJ Rice – The top 3 Wolfpack basketball topics of conversation the entire ’23-‘24 season [might] have been. 1) What a post season!!!!, 2) Who’s going to replace Coach Keatts? (since redacted from the official record); 3) What’s the deal with MJ Rice????? Based on what we know right now, there is no reason to think he won’t be playing for the Pack next season.

MJ hasn’t had a healthy, full season in his two-year college career. He arrived at Kansas with an ankle injury and suffered a series of ailments throughout his freshman season, from back spasms and kidney stones to a bout with COVID. They not only kept him out of games, but he missed a lot of practice time, delaying his development.

Upon his arrival in Raleigh, MJ missed most of preseason practice and because of that struggled finding his role on court, playing in only 9 games. After the Louisville game in mid-January, he decided to sit out the season and apply for a redshirt. (the team has not yet published any update on the status of that application – we might not hear anything before fall practice starts – the NCAA has been very busy in court losing lawsuits)

Eric Bossi (247Sports.com) wrote about MJ in the Kansas City Star upon his transfer (September 2023): “For Rice to truly unlock his potential, a few things need to happen. For one, he needs to get his swagger back. Attitude is really important for some people and for a time, Rice thought he was the baddest dude on the block and his play reflected that. If he can get his nasty streak back, look out. “

“Second, Rice will have to adjust his playing style some. He has shown the capability to hit jumpers from deep and wants to play as a traditional wing, but when he’s at his best he’s playing that combo role where he’s too quick for big guys and simply too strong for wing players.” And he needs to get fully healthy!

But his resume – McDonald’s All-American, Top 50 out of HS, recruited to Kansas – is authentic. He is a big, powerful, athletic wing who can play inside or out. People in the know say he has the talent to be a star in college and has a real shot at the NBA. Hopefully this is the season we see him begin to live up to his promising potential.

Career Hights: Points 19, assists 2, rebounds 6, steals 1

Paul McNeil – I did a separate article on the freshmen , but Paul definitely has the potential to be a weapon for the Wolfpack this season. He played 30 games last season, so he is less likely to ‘hit the freshman wall’ than some, and practicing against the most talented players he’s ever played against every day will benefit him tremendously. I wish he’d been able to get here for the first summer session to get additional S&C time. I think we’re going to have a lot of fun watching this guy come into his own, he’s going to be a star and I think we’ll see flashes of it this season.

Looking ahead to the 2025-2026 Season: This role could be a team strength, these guys could each turn out to be stars for the Pack. James, McNeil, Rice and Parker Jr will have remaining eligibility.

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