Basketball Offseason: What to Expect from the Freshman Class This Season

CONGRATULATIONS PACK9!

OFF TO OMAHA FOR THE COLLEGE WORLD SERIES!

This is the second article in a series looking at expectations for the team next season. The first focused on the guards.

This article focuses on our two freshmen.

We have signed incoming freshmen Trey Parker and Paul McNeil for the 2024-2025 season. Here’s a reminder of what their high school resumes look like, and then a prediction of what to expect from them this season. (their heights & weights vary from site to site, I used ESPN)

Paul McNeil – 6’5” 180 lbs.

247 ranks him at #54, 4 stars on their composite ranking

Expected on campus for Second Summer Session – June 24

Paul played four seasons at Richmond High School in Rockingham. During his senior season he broke the NC all-time single game record for points by scoring 71 in a 118-52 win. (highlights) In that game he was 28-49 from the field, 10-26 from 3PT, and 5-6 from the free throw line. Looking at his high school career, you see similarities to Terquavion Smith’s career at Farmville. Like Smith, McNeil was the show, and his statistics reflect it. Here’s a look at his most recent two seasons.

Senior Season Highs:

• Points – 71
• Scoring – 50-59 point games (1), 40-49 point games (4), 30-39 point games (11), 20-29 point games (8), 12-19 point games (5), games with less than 12 points (0)
• Rebounds – 20 (14 games 10+)
• Assists – 11 (24 games 4+)
• Steals – 9 (10 games 4+)

Observation: His quantity of shots jumped dramatically from his junior to senior seasons (FGA +52.9%, 3PTA + 36.4%, FTA + 64.7%) and his shooting percentages increased as well.

Trey Parker – 6’3” 180 lbs.

247 ranks him at #130, 4 stars on their composite ranking

Arrived on campus for First Summer Session – May 15

Trey reclassified last season and decided to spend an additional season with Overtime Elite (OTE) in Atlanta, so he has played 5 seasons of high school ball and is now 20 years old. He played his first two seasons in Fayetteville, first at Cape Fear HS and then New Life Christian. He spent a season at Vertical Academy in Charlotte, and then moved to OTE. Trey is a YouTube legend for his dunking ability (Check him out). Here’s a look at his most recent two seasons.

Last Season Highs:

• Points – 20 (11 games 10+)
• Rebounds – 11 (2 games 10+)
• Assists – 6 (11 games 4+)
• Steals – 5 (7 games 3+)

Observation: His quantity of shots jumped dramatically last season (FGA +91.7%, 3PTA + 65.7%, FTA + 86.6%) possibly reflecting an increased role on that team, but his shooting percentages all decreased.

What to expect from them next season.

Disclaimer: “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”

This is the main disadvantage of the whole annual ‘shopping from the transfer portal superstore’ thing, we are recruiting transfers who often started at their previous school, there is no substitute for the experience they bring, and generally they expect to start. That makes it a struggle for incoming freshmen to get needed experience in order that they help us win later in their careers. And, of course, that makes them want to transfer for more playing time. A vicious circle. High school recruiting really is at a pivot point. CBS recently published a good article on the challenge of keeping talented freshmen. (link)

Trey is listed on major recruiting sites as either a shooting guard (ESPN, 247), combo guard (On3) or point guard (Rivals), Paul shows as a shooting guard (247) or small forward (ESPN, Rivals, On3). In a recent interview, Paul referred to himself as a wing. We have five experienced guards and 3 guard / small forwards, so it will be a challenge for either of them to break into the regular rotation.

Paul McNeil – Paul joins our pretty good group of wings and will benefit by practicing against stronger, more experienced players, all of whom will outweigh him by 20 or more pounds. He’ll likely start practice behind Dennis Parker Jr and Mike James at the 3. However, not only can he shoot, but he was also a great passer. (career 4.2 Apg) The staff might give him some practice time at guard to see if he can do it at this level. There won’t be much playing time available at guard this season, but there could be next season.

The one thing this team doesn’t have – at least on paper – is a lights out 3PT shooter. Something we leaned on DJ Horne (40.4%) to do for us last season. McNeil could very well be that guy this season. He’s a career 36.95% 3PT shooter with 728 attempts and shot nearly 40% last season. That might be his ‘foot in the door’, however, in HS he was a scoring machine. He scored 2,429 points in his high school career. Last season he had 17 games with 30+ points and totaled a very impressive 952 points on the season. If he can replicate that to any degree in college, there will be a place for him, and he’ll get plenty of minutes. It took Terquavion Smith 7 games (and an injury to Morsell) to break into the starting lineup – and he never left. McNeil might be as good but not play as much as a freshman, he is on a more talented and deeper team. In a recent interview with The Wolfpacker, McNeil said, “I want to be the greatest teammate I can be,” … “Listen to the guys, listen to the coaches [and] be a great kid.” “It’s great just knowing that we’ve got great wings coming in, good mentors to help us out, that’s great for the team,” McNeil said. “We need the older guys. They have that experience. They can give me wisdom and knowledge. I can use that and come out better.” You’ve got to love that attitude! Paul is going to be a very good player for the Pack.

Trey Parker – He is going to have to work his way into that 1-2 rotation. According to Coach Keatts, “He’s just an incredibly difficult cover for a defender because of his jump shooting and ballhandling ability.” Plus, he had decent assist numbers (3.09 Apg) last season. If Trey can deliver on that potential this season, he might be able to get minutes. With improvement on his shooting and some experience, he could be the prototypical Kevin Keatts point guard in the future. And there is no better role model for a future PG to practice against and play with than Michael O’Connell. But it’s going to be tough for him this season, initially he’s got O’Connell, Pass and possibly Hill in front of him at the 1, and Hill, Taylor, and maybe James in front of him at the 2. (all but James are seniors, and he’s a two-season starter) He may not see much court time this season, especially once conference season begins and the bench tightens. But when he does, pay attention!

But with that said, make no mistake, Trey Parker (#5) is a VERY good basketball player. This highlight reel does show off his dunking (they all do), but you also get to see the rest of the package. If you aren’t in the fan club yet, this should do it.

Are either going to be One and Done?

It seems unlikely. Neither projects to get a ton of playing time this season to showcase their skills. McNeil would be the more likely candidate if he can get that shot to fall this season, but he is going to need to bulk up. Like Dennis Parker, Jr. last season, he’s going to have to adjust to how much more physical the college game is than he is used to. He’s no longer going to be the most talented player in the gym most games, like he was in high school. In his interviews, he also sounds like he wants to learn and knows he can improve. Parker, on the other hand, may be more inclined to try it since he will turn 21 in March. But, unless his shooting percentages skyrocket this season, it’s unlikely he’ll get much encouragement from the pros.

Will they transfer?

The good news for both is, the following season, (2025-2026), Mike James is the only guard and Dennis Parker Jr and MJ Rice are the only wings with remaining eligibility. (actually, they are the only players possibly returning) If the freshmen are ready, one or both could step right into the starting lineup, and we could build around them. Obviously, they could transfer (40+% of players did last season), but it shouldn’t be because of an expected lack of playing time.