Who will win the 2024 Big 12 football championship?
Here’s a look at the USA Today Network’s predicted order of finish for the Big 12
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Imagine Mike Gundy and Deion Sanders shooting dice at the craps table, Sonny Dykes and Lance Leipold seeing a show at the Sphere and Kalani Sitake and Kyle Whittingham riding the roller coaster at New York New York.
Big 12 media days are scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday in Las Vegas. Coaches and players from the new-look, 16-team conference will convene at Allegiant Stadium to preview the upcoming season.
Oklahoma and Texas are out, and the Four Corner schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — are in.
Utah was picked in the preseason media poll to win the conference. Arizona State was picked to finish last.
Here’s one big question for each team heading into Big 12 Media Days. We’ll go in order of the preseason poll, starting with the Utes and finishing with the Sun Devils.
1. Utah
Is quarterback Cameron Rising healthy entering his seventh year?
That’s right, this is Year 7 for Rising, who recently turned 25.
Rising, who redshirted one year at Texas before transferring to Utah, is older than Brock Purdy for goodness sake. Older than Trevor Lawrence. Older than Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman!
Rising led the Utes to back-to-back Pac-12 titles in 2021 and 2022, but he missed all of last season after tearing his knee up in the 2023 Rose Bowl.
Utah managed to go 8-5 last season, but its offense tanked without Rising. Utah ranked 94th in yards per game and 96th in points per game. The Utes ranked 120th in passing offense among the 132 Bowl Subdivision teams.
For his career, Rising has completed 64% of his passes with a 46 to 14 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Utah was picked to win the league with the expectation that Rising is back to his old self, but it’s not a given.
2. Kansas State
What can we expect from Avery Johnson in his first full season as the starting quarterback?
Avery Johnson has the best Heisman odds, +2500 according to FanDuel, of any Big 12 player.
Johnson only made two starts as a true freshman playing behind Will Howard, but Johnson showed immense potential. He completed 56% of his passes last season and threw five touchdowns with no interceptions.
Johnson is a dual-threat quarterback. He rushed for seven touchdowns, the most of any true freshman quarterback last season, and averaged 5.7 yards per attempt.
The Wildcats were the No. 2 scoring offense in the Big 12 last season behind Oklahoma while their defense allowed the second-fewest points behind Texas.
3. Oklahoma State
How will the defense look in Year 2 under Bryan Nardo?
It was trial by fire for Bryan Nardo last season as Oklahoma State’s new defensive coordinator. Nardo, whom Gundy plucked from Division-II Gannon University, might have needed a year to figure out what the Big 12 is all about.
The Cowboys’ defense allowed a Big 12-worst 441.8 yards per game last season. The unit made big plays, otherwise they wouldn’t have played for the Big 12 title, but the defense was far too inconsistent.
With 10 defensive starters returning, including star linebacker Nick Martin, the Oklahoma State’s defense should be much, much better in Year 2 under Nardo.
4. Kansas
Is Lance Leipold some kind of sorcerer?
Not an appropriate question for media day, but one that’s been bouncing around my head.
For a decade, Kansas was the easiest team to project in the Big 12. Write the Jayhawks in pen to finish last, and figure out the rest with a pencil.
Slotted at fourth, it’s the Jayhawks’ highest ranking in the preseason poll since the Big 12 did away with divisions in 2011.
Under Leipold, Kansas made back-to-back bowl games for just the second time in school history and the first time since 2007 and 2008.
Kansas is returning a slew of starters, including quarterback Jalon Daniels and running back Devin Neal.
Leipold, who was reportedly in the mix for the Washington and Michigan State jobs, has done a miraculous job in Lawrence.
5. Arizona
What convinced quarterback Noah Fifita, wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan to come back despite coaching change?
Jedd Fisch went from one win, to five wins, to 10 wins in his first three seasons as Arizona’s coach. Had Fisch returned to Tucson rather than taking the Washington job, the Wildcats might have been the favorite to win the Big 12.
With star quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan staying put, the Wildcats could still win the Big 12 under first-year coach Brent Brennan, who was hired away from San Jose State.
Fifita threw for 354 yards and two touchdowns and McMillan caught 10 passes for 160 yards in Arizona’s win against Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl.
Both could’ve been huge targets in the transfer portal. What about Arizona and Brennan made them stay?
6. Iowa State
Is quarterback Rocco Becht the real deal?
If so, the Cyclones are legitimate Big 12 title contenders.
As a redshirt freshman, Becht threw for 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He completed 63% of his passes.
Iowa State’s offense has finished 10th in the Big 12 in back-to-back seasons, but the Cyclones return nine starters on that side of the ball. Nine on defense, too.
The ingredients are there for this to be the second-best team in the Matt Campbell era. Behind the 2020 team that won the Fiesta Bowl.
7. West Virginia
Is the pressure off Neal Brown?
West Virginia coach Neal Brown saved his job last season. The Mountaineers, picked to finish last in the Big 12, went 6-3 in conference play and 9-4 overall.
Brown got a celebratory mayo bath after West Virginia beat North Carolina 30-10 in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
While Year 5 was the best of Brown’s West Virginia tenure, his seat is still a tad warm. West Virginia gave him a one-year extension, carrying his contract through 2027, but it came with a slight pay decrease.
West Virginia’s first five games of Big 12 play could hardly be tougher: Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State and at Arizona. That’s five of the top-six teams in the preseason poll.
8. Central Florida
Can the Knights win a close one?
UCF, in its first ever Big 12 home game, led Kansas State 35-7 in the third quarter. The Knights lost 36-35.
As a heavy underdog at Oklahoma, Central Florida was a two-point conversion away from forcing overtime.
In a November game at Texas Tech, the Knights had a what would have been a game-tying extra point blocked in the fourth quarter.
The Knights have a deeper team, and should have better luck, in Year 2 in the Big 12.
9. Texas Tech
How soon will a heralded freshmen class make an impact?
It’s no surprise that Joey McGuire, a longtime Texas high school coach, is winning on the recruiting trail.
Texas Tech had the No. 1 2024 recruiting class in the Big 12, according to the 247 Sports composite rankings.
The class, ranked 26th nationally, was headlined by five-star wide receiver Micah Hudson from Temple, Texas, who became the highest-ranked signee in Texas Tech history.
Texas Tech’s 2024 class also included four-star quarterback Will Hammond and four-star tackle Ellis Davis.
10. TCU
Is 2022 or 2023 the outlier season?
In 2022, Sonny Dykes’ first season at TCU, the Horned Frogs became the first Big 12 team to make the national championship game in the College Football Playoff era.
That magical season was followed by a disappointing 5-7 season in which the Horned Frogs went 3-6 in the Big 12.
So what’s the standard for TCU under Dykes? It’s probably in the middle of the two extremes we saw in Years 1 and 2.
11. Colorado
Is the Big 12 ready for Deion Sanders? Is Deion Sanders ready for the Big 12?
We’re about to find out.
Sanders’ promising start with a thud. After winning their first three games, the Buffs lost eight of their final nine.
According to CBS Sports, of the 72 scholarship players (high school recruits and transfers) Colorado signed in 2023, 61% of them are no longer with the team.
Colorado has continued to recruit well, though, both at the high school level and in the transfer portal.
The Buffaloes signed five-star tackle Jordan Seaton to bolster their offensive line.
Colorado added 40 players from the transfer portal — more than any school in the country.
There’s no such thing as stability in college football, but what Colorado is doing is extreme even in this climate.
12. Baylor
What’s Dave Aranda’s plan to turn things around?
If the preseason poll is right and the Bears finish 12th, say goodbye to Dave Aranda.
Aranda was fortunate to keep his job last year after a 3-9 season. The Bears won the Sugar Bowl during the 2021 season, but that is a distant memory. Aranda is 23-25 overall and 15-21 in the Big 12 entering his fifth campaign at the helm.
Toledo transfer Dequan Finn and junior Sawyer Robertson are battling for the quarterback job under new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital.
13. Brigham Young
What is BYU’s place in the new-look Big 12?
You have the old guard of the Big 12, the new schools and then BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston — which bridged one Big 12 era to the next.
Of those, BYU is arguably the most intriguing. The Cougars were a longstanding force as a non-Power Five member, but Year 1 with the big boys didn’t go so well. The Cougars went 2-7 in the league, although they played Oklahoma and Oklahoma State awfully tough.
Joining the Big 12 was the right decision, but it remains to be seen what the jump will do — positively or negatively — to BYU’s brand.
14. Cincinnati
Do the Bearcats have the right coach in Scott Satterfield?
Satterfield, feeling the heat after four seasons at Louisville, found a soft landing spot at Cincinnati.
Satterfield might not be long for Cincinanati after going 3-9 (1-8 Big 12) in his first season — and the Bearcats’ first in the Big 12. Cincinnati’s lone Big 12 win was against Houston.
The Bearcats are only three seasons removed from a College Football Playoff appearance.
It’s always going to be hard for Cincinnati to retain a great coach, but at least the Bearcats have hired well. Just this century, Luke Fickell, Butch Jones, Brian Kelly and Mark Dantonio have coached at Cincinnati before leaving for better jobs.
Satterfield seems to be headed in the wrong direction.
15. Houston
What is Willie Fritz hoping to accomplish in Year 1?
Houston’s hiring of Willie Fritz to replace Dana Holgorsen was universally lauded. Fritz turned around Tulane, and Houston is much richer in resources.
At 64, Fritz might not be a long-term option for the Cougars, but he’s well equipped to get Houston back on solid ground.
Don’t sleep on quarterback Donovan Smith. He has elite talent, and the tools to make Houston surprisingly competitive.
16. Arizona State
What does a successful season look like?
Arizona State has a new athletic director in Graham Rossini and a second-year coach in Kenny Dillingham — both of whom are charged with cleaning up messes in the athletic department and within the football program after Herm Edwards’ dismissal.
Arizona State will have to be graded on a curve this season.